PREDICTION DERBY RESULTS WEEK IV: CLEMSON @ FLORIDA STATE

POS PROUD PROGNOSTICATOR                           PREDICTION    DIFFER
=== ============================================== ============= ======
 1. <PSElliott#aol.com>                            FSU 35, CU  3   1.00
 2. Stephen <amansom#aol.com>                      FSU 35, CU  6   3.16
 2. Michael Threapleton <mjt#netrunner.net>        FSU 35, CU  6   3.16
 4. Dr Micheal vanPelt <us005330#mindspring.com>   FSU 32, CU  0   3.61
 5. <james.ewing#yale.edu>                         FSU 38, CU  6   5.00
 5. Kurt Siefken <kas2928#garnet.acns.fsu.edu>     FSU 38, CU  6   5.00
 5. Danielle Galvin <DTG#mail.municode.com>        FSU 38, CU  0   5.00
 5. Bob Stuke <coachbob#pbfreenet.seflin.lib.fl.us>FSU 37, CU  7   5.00
 5. <jfhayes#nettally.com>                         FSU 31, CU  7   5.00
10. Justin J. Brookman <jjb2794#is.nyu.edu>        FSU 38, CU  7   5.66
10. Ray Marky <rmthree#freenet.tlh.fl.us>          FSU 38, CU  7   5.66
12. Kris A. Krake <noles#magicnet.net>             FSU 40, CU  3   6.00
13. Michael S Edgerley <msedgerley#juno.com>       FSU 27, CU  3   7.00
14. <Paul_Barkowitz#transarc.com>                  FSU 35, CU 10   7.07
15. Joey Morris <rjmorris#eos.ncsu.edu>            FSU 41, CU  0   7.62
17. <jpjohn#lex.infi.net>                          FSU 31, CU 10   7.62
17. Sean Linkenback <showcase#onramp.net>          FSU 42, CU  3   8.00
18. <jmcgeene#tdo.infi.net>                        FSU 41, CU  7   8.06
18. Manny Bas <bas#nettally.com>                   FSU 38, CU 10   8.06
20. Michael Upchurch <upchurch~ma#glaxo.com>       FSU 42, CU  6   8.54
21. Mackey <mackey#nr.infi.net>                    FSU 42, CU  7   8.94
22. Christopher Schmitt <schmitt#freenet.tlh.fl.us>FSU 43, CU  3   9.00
23. Eric Lyman <EJLyman#aol.com>                   FSU 24, CU  6  10.44
24. Bruce Stilmack <eng.fsu.edu#wombat.eng.fsu.edu>FSU 42, CU 10  10.63
25. Gregory Reeves <greev282#concentric.net>       FSU 45, CU  3  11.00
26. mec <mec#sunet.net>                            FSU 43, CU 10  11.40
27. Andrew Myones <andrew#cybertide.com>           FSU 46, CU  3  12.00
28. Richard Woodford <rwoodfor#lawsun.law.fsu.edu> FSU 42, CU 13  12.81
29. Fred P Snyder <fsnyder#clandjop.com>           FSU 31, CU 16  13.34
30. Allen Risley <arisley#coyote.csusm.edu>        FSU 48, CU  0  14.32
30. Scott <ScootM#aol.com>                         FSU 47, CU  9  14.32
30. Chris Rasmussen <cjr4a#virginia.edu>           FSU 37, CU 17  14.32
33. Thurston Long <machupo#best.com>               FSU 42, CU 15  14.42
34. Rae Adams <raead#fn3.freenet.tlh.fl.us>        FSU 48, CU  7  14.56
35. Ken Bishop <kjb#wam.umd.edu>                   FSU 45, CU 13  14.87
36. <rkerr#mindspring.com>                         FSU 49, CU  0  15.30
37. GRUE <grue#prism.u-net.com>                    FSU 48, CU 10  15.65
38. Scott Smith <smiths#icsc.net>                  FSU 20, CU 14  17.80
39. Herb Wills <hwills#freenet.tlh.fl.us>          FSU 52, CU  7  18.44
40. Rick Workman <RickW267#aol.com>                FSU 15, CU  6  19.24
41. Chris Brady <chrispat#jax-inter.net>           FSU 52, CU 10  19.31
42. Everett Harris <eharris#cais.cais.com>         FSU 42, CU 21  19.70
43. Mike Sukhadwala <msukhadw#garnet.acns.fsu.edu> FSU 54, CU 10  21.19
44. Stephen Brown <stbrown#cts.com>                FSU 62, CU 10  28.86
45. <Peterroy#aol.com>                             FSU 77, CU  7  43.19
46. David J. Owens <djowens#innova.net>            CU 21, FSU 17 -19.10

The actual score was Florida State 34, Clemson 3.

You can't get much closer than P. S. Elliot, whose difference of 1.00 not only won this week's Predixn Derby, but it set a new season low and tied last year's season low of 1.00, set in the Miami game. Veteran prognosticator Mike Threapleton returned to the top five with his best showing of the season, tying newcomer Stephen for the runner-up spot at 3.16. Breathing on their collars, third-place Dr vanPelt also turned in a season-best performance (3.61). For the second straight week Kurt Siefken grabbed fifth place, but this week he had to share it with Jim Ewing, Danielle Galvin, Bob Stuke, and J.F. Hayes, all at 5.00. Usually I figure any mark less than 10.00 is respectable, but this week it wouldn't have guaranteed you a spot in the top half of the field. This isn't to say there's any shame in it; the best I could come up with this week was 18.44, and I still plan to go out in public this week and everything.

Spying on the former champs: After spending two weeks in the top spot, Thurston long slipped to 33rd (14.42). His co-champion from last week's UNC game, Mike Upchurch, fared better (20th, 8.54). Allen Risley, winner in the Duke game, was 30th (14.32). I'd make a crack about how the mighty have fallen, but they still kicked my tail this week.

I always talk about who finished in the top five; after four games, who has the most finishes of fifth place or better? Research reveals that:

     TOP FIVE FINISHES THROUGH WEEK IV:

     PREDICTOR          FINISHES TOTAL
     ================== ======== =====
     Thurston Long      (1, 1)     2
     Manny Bas          (2, 4)     2
     Mike Threapleton   (4, 2)     2
     Kurt Siefken       (5, 5)     2
     Allen Risley       (1)        1
     P.S. Elliot        (1)        1
     GRUE               (2)        1
     Mike Upchurch      (2)        1
     Stephen            (2)        1
     Robert Taylor      (3)        1
     Herb Wills         (3)        1
     Steve Gibson       (3)        1
     Kris Krake         (3)        1
     Dr. Mike vanPelt   (4)        1
     Dr. Ed Bierhanzl   (5)        1
     Mike Sukhadwala    (5)        1
     Jim Ewing          (5)        1
     Danielle Galvin    (5)        1
     Bob Stuke          (5)        1
     J.F. Hayes         (5)        1

The second column lists the actual top five finishes of the Predictor, the third column lists how many there were. Because of ties, the figure won't quite add up. I make no claims of statistical significance, but whereas only two finishes in the top five may not look impressive on the surface, remember that there have only been four games. Those guys at the top have been finishing in the top five at least 50% of the time. Thurston Long has been winning half the games he plays. No single interpretation applies to the sixteen people who have one finish of fifth place or better. Some of them, like Steve Gibson, have just started playing. Others, like me, may have just got lucky one week.

Thanks again to everyone who played. Congratulations to the top finishers, and for the rest of us, our time will come.

Perhaps in the Miami game! This week, on October 12, The Seminoles travel down to Miami to take on the Hurricanes on their home turf, a game that has given Florida State trouble in the past. Is this the year that the 'Noles take the 'Canes out in Miami? Or will this be just another dismal addendum to the history of this series?

Make history by being the first to predict the score of this matchup correctly. Send your predictions to:

HWILLS@FREENET.TLH.FL.US

Put something like "FSU vs Miami" in the subject line so I know it's not some well-meaning newbie warning me about the "Good-Times Virus". As usual, all predictions will be carefully compiled to be scored and ranked following the outcome of the game. Entries must arrive here before kick-off, or they get forwarded to limbo@void.com.

Good luck!

Herb Wills, HWILLS@FREENET.TLH.FL.US