How The Formula Predicted
The 1996 Oscar Nominees


The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
The English Patient
36.82 pts


Director
Anthony Minghella
30.04 pts


Actor
Geoffrey Rush
19.66 pts


Actress
Frances McDormand
24.60 pts


Supp. Actor
Cuba Gooding Jr.
12.44 pts


Supp. Actress
Juliette Binoche
11.33 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Fargo
33.06 pts


Adaptation
The English Patient
21.11 pts


Best Picture
The English Patient
Fargo
Jerry Maguire
Secrets and Lies
Shine
6th and 7th Place: The People vs Larry Flint ; The Birdcage

Places 8 to 10: Hamlet ; Breaking the Waves ; Evita


Best Director
Anthony Minghella, The English Patient
Joel Coen, Fargo
Milos Forman, The People vs Larry Flint
Mike Leigh, Secrets and Lies
Scott Hicks, Shine
6th and 7th Place: Cameron Crowe, Jerry Maguire ; Mike Nichols, The Birdcage

Places 8 to 10: Lars Von Trier, Breaking the Waves ; Kenneth Branagh, Hamlet ; Alan Parker, Evita


Best Actor
Tom Cruise, Jerry Maguire
Ralph Fiennes, The English Patient
Woody Harrelson, The People vs Larry Flint
Geoffrey Rush, Shine
Billy Bob Thornton, Sling Blade
6th and 7th Place: Eddy Murphy, The Nutty Professor ; Nathan Lane, The Birdcage

Number 8 (TIE): Mel Gibson, Ransom ; Liam Neeson, Michael Collins, Antonio Banderas, Evita ; Robin Williams, The Birdcage


Best Actress
Brenda Blethyn, Secrets and Lies
Diane Keaton, Marvin's Room
Frances McDormand, Fargo
Kristin Scott Thomas, The English Patient
Emily Watson, Breaking the Waves
6th and 7th Place: Courtney Love, The People vs Larry Flint ; Gina Rowlands, Unhook the Stars

Places 8 to 10: Madonna, Evita ; Meryl Streep, Marvin's Room ; Glenn Close, 101 Dalmatiens


Best Supporting Actor
Cuba Gooding, Jr., Jerry Maguire
Armin Mueller-Stahl, Shine
Edward Norton, Primal Fear
Paul Scofield, The Crucible
James Woods, Ghosts of Mississippi
6th and 7th Place (TIE) : William H. Macy, Fargo ; Noah Taylor, Shine ; Hank Azaria, The Birdcage

Places 9 and 10: Samuel L. Jackson, A Time to Kill ; Martin Donovan, The Portrait of a Lady


Best Supporting Actress
Joan Allen, The Crucible
Lauren Bacall, The Mirror Has Two Faces
Juliette Binoche, The English patient
Barbara Hershey, The Portrait of a Lady
Renee Zellweger, Jerry Maguire
6th and 7th Place: Marisa Tomei, Unhook the Stars; Gwen Vertdon, Marvin's Room

Places 8 and 9: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Secrets and Lies ; Marion Ross, The Evening Star

10th place was a tie between: Piper Laurie, The Grass Harp and Irma P. Hall, A Family Thing


Best Original Screenplay
Fargo
Jerry Maguire
Lone Star
Secrets and Lies
Shine
6th and 7th Place: The People vs Larry Flint ; Ridicule

Places 8 to 10: Mother ; Big Night ; Breaking the Waves


Best Adapted Screenplay
The Birdcage
Emma
The English Patient
Sling Blade
Trainspotting
6th and 7th Place: Evita ; Hamlet

Places 8 to 10: The Crucible ; The Portrait of a Lady ; Jude


See the calculations (in Excel!)


How To Read The Excell Pages:

1