How The Formula Predicts
The 2008 Oscar Nominees


The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
54.60 pts


Director
Danny Boyle
50.18 pts


Actor
Sean Penn
26.82 pts


Actress
Anne Hathaway
18.88 pts


Supp. Actor
Heath Ledger
25.93 pts


Supp. Actress
Penelope Cruz
19.38 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Milk
21.03 pts


Adaptation
Slumdog Millionaire
37.59 pts


Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

6th and 7th Place: Doubt, WALL-E

Places 8 to 10: Happy-Go-Lucky, The Wrestler, Vicky Cristina Barcelona


Best Director
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
6th and 7th Place: Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky ; John Patrick Shanley, Doubt

Places 8 to 10: Stephen Daldry, The Reader ; Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler ; Andrew Stanton, WALL-E


Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
6th and 7th Place: Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino ; Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road

Places 8 to 10: Brendan Gleeson, In Bruges ; Colin Farrel, In Bruges ; Benicio Del Toro, Che


Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
6th and 7th Place: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road ; Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long

Places 8 to 10: Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey ; Michelle Williams, Wendy & Lucy ; Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia!


Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
6th Place (TIE): Tom Cruise, Tropic Thunder ; Ralph Fiennes, The Duchess

Places 8 to 9: Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky ; Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

10th place was a three-way tie between: Kevin Bacon, Frost/Nixon ; James Franco, Milk ; Brendan Gleeson, In Bruges

There was no major campaign for Brendan Gleeson, which allowed him to collect points in both the leading and supporting category.


Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
6th and 7th Place: Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button ; Freida Pinto, Slumdog Millionaire

Places 8 and 9: Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married ; Hanna Schygulla, The Edge of Heaven

10th place was a seven-way tie between: Penelope Cruz, Elegy ; Vera Farmiga, Nothing But the Truth ; Angelica Huston, Choke ; Sophie Okonedo, The Secret Life of Bees ; Tilda Swinton, Burn After Reading and Emma Thompson, Brideshead Revisited


Best Original Screenplay
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
The Visitor
WALL-E
The Wrestler
6th and 7th Place: Burn After Reading ; Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Places 8 to 10: Synecdoche, New York ; Rachel Getting Married ; In Bruges


Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
6th and 7th Place: The Reader ; Revolutionary Road

Places 8 to 10: Gomorrah ; Elegy ; Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist


See the calculations (in Excel!)


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