How The Formula Predicted
The 2003 Oscar Nominees


The Formula's Most Important Rule The Too Early Front Runner The Over-Estimated Comedy The Meryl Streep Rule

Prediction Rate 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96

FIRST PLACE PER CATEGORY


Picture
Return of the King
49.64 pts


Director
Peter Jackson
43.31 pts


Actor
Bill Murray
23.60 pts


Actress
Naomi Watts
18.99 pts


Supp. Actor
Tim Robbins
19.99 pts


Supp. Actress
Renee Zellweger
20.49 pts


Orig. Screenplay
Lost in Translation
24.64 pts


Adaptation
Mystic River
22.99 pts


2003 Film Awards

2003 Oscar Rules

2003 Oscar Show

2003 Special Awards

Best Picture
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Lost in Translation
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

6th and 7th Place: The Last Samurai, Cold Mountain

Places 8 to 10: In America, American Splendor, The Station Agent


Best Director
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
Peter Weir, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River
Gary Ross, Seabiscuit
6th and 7th Place: Edward Zwick, The Last Samurai ; Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain

Places 8 to 10: Jim Sheridan, In America ; Robert Pulcini & Shari Springer Berman, American Splendor ; Fernando Mereilles, City of God


Best Actor
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
Jude Law, Cold Mountain
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Sean Penn, Mystic River
6th and 7th Place: Peter Dinklage, The Station Agent ; Tom Cruise, The Last Samurai

Places 8 to 9: Jeff Bridges, Seabiscuit ; Russell Crowe, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

10th place was a tie between: Jack Black, School of Rock and Billy Bob Thornton, Bad Santa


Best Actress
Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give
Charlize Theron, Monster
Uma Thurman, Kill Bill, Vol. 1
Naomi Watts, 21 Grams
Evan Rachel Wood, Thirteen
6th and 7th Place: Patricia Clarkson, The Station Agent, Samantha Morton, In America (TIE) ; Scarlett Johansson, Girl With a Pearl Earring (TIE)

Place 9: Keisha Castle-Hughes, Wale Rider

10th place was a tie between: Cate Blanchett, Veronica Guerrin and Nicole Kidman, Cold Mountain

There was no major campaign for both Keisha Castle-Hughes and Patricia Clarkson, which allowed those actresses to collect points in both leading and supporting categories.


Best Supporting Actor
Alec Baldwin, The Cooler
Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams
Tim Robbins, Mystic River
Peter Sarsgaard, Shattered Glass
Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai
6th and 7th Place: Albert Finney, Big Fish ; William H. Macy, Seabiscuit

Places 8 to 9: Chris Cooper, Seabiscuit ; Djimon Hounsou, In America

10th place was a tie between: Andy Sarkis and Sean Astin, both from The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bello, The Cooler
Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April
Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River
Holly Hunter, Thirteen
Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain
6th and 7th Place: Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider ; Scarlett Johansson, Lost in Translation

Places 8 and 9: Hope Davis, American Splendor ; Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog

10th place was a three-way tie between: Emma Bolger, In America ; Patricia Clarkson, The Station Agent and Laura Linney, Mystic River


Best Original Screenplay
The Barbarian Invasions
Dirty Pretty Things
In America
Lost in Translation
The Station Agent
6th and 7th Place: 21 Grams ; Bend It Like Beckham

Places 8 to 10: Finding Nemo ; The Last Samurai ; Kill Bill, Vol. 1


Best Adapted Screenplay
American Splendor
Cold Mountain
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Mystic River
Seabiscuit
6th and 7th Place: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World ; City of God

Places 8 to 10: The Secret Lives of Dentists ; Big Fish ; Shattered Glass


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