1/31/2005
And there we have it:
Stocks did go down, and they stayed down for the whole month.
Support became resistance, and the moving averages started to
twist like filaments of yarn. Volume was above average on both
down days and up days. There was no clear trend.
I expect muddled movement for the forseeable future, and, yes,
this year looks like it will bring more of what we saw last year.
Two things encourage me, though:
Today the S&P 500 is finding support where it found resistance
last year, around 1160 (116 for SPY). And that 200-day moving
average is still creeping upward. That is the kind of movement
that looks like nothing from day to day, but after a few weeks
I look at it and say, "wow, it's moved!" It's the slow kind of
movement that has been so frustrating in many of the individual
stock plays. From one day to the next the difference in price
looks negligible, but after six weeks the price has moved 10% or
more. Like this one:
Valero Energy is on the rise again, but if you got in on
December 9th for $43.60, it took until January 11th before you
could be sure you broke even. If you stopped up to break even on
December 15th, you were knocked off the ride on December 22nd.
You would have missed the bigger ride. I don't believe Valero is
done for the season, but getting in today would call for just as
much patience.
And so it is for the market in general. Patience is one of the
trader's biggest lessons and greatest virtues.
1/26/2005 I laugh whenever anyone states a fear that there may be civil war in Iraq, because the civil war has always existed. When the Iraqi Army melted away before the U.S. Army's onslaught, the American press celebrated. Now the press is not so happy with this behavior. Melting away is a great survival tactic, but it isn't the essence of decisive battle victories. War is never civil, and while I watch the fiction the British named Iraq being imperiled by constant strife, I find that a civil war is raging inside my own mind. I find a constant conflict between the goals of doing utterly as I please and of making a buck. I am beginning to understand the phrase, "the love of money is the root of all evil." Profit motive for its own sake causes many a misfortune. It is said, "do what you love and the money will follow," not "do anything for the money and the love will follow." When profit is the only motive we see cases like Enron, but it also happens on a personal scale. I know people who feel trapped in their current jobs, which they hold simply for their wages, salaries, or draws. They are uncomfortable with their colleagues, uncomfortable with their managers, and uncomfortable with their assignments. Assignments they are, as long as the people do not choose their activities. Money is the love of God, but it is only a symbol. The real love is manifest in the many blessings of each life, which may have been obtained without a transfer of money. The consciousness of prosperity is not a consciousness of profit motive. It is a consciousness of greater good, both for the individual and for all life. "Do what you love and the money will follow." I have devoted many years to software maintenance, and the money is very good these days. I wonder how the reward would increase were I to go even deeper into the discipline, or were I to shift my attention to something that brings me even more peace and joy. So I play. It appears that play will bring me to a place of greater wealth, both spiritually and monetarily. For one never succeeds at something in which he is not interested. Always, a prerequisite for success is interest. So people who trap themselves in the feeling that they must do something in which they have no interest are doomed to failure, while those who are having fun and finding a way to make money at it are guaranteed success.
Thursday, January 13, 2005 5:02:06 AM Dead cat bounce? Now you see it, now you don't. I just discovered that The Industry Standard tried to make a comeback. Last year. The page is now owned by Infoworld, with a news feed on the front and a stack of blogs. Nothing else seems to have been added since August. Maybe they should have announced it on Slashdot. This is about media, people, get the word out!
1/11/2005
"Are you hitting on him?" Samantha asked.
The woman was taken aback, briefly, then said, "Yes, I'm hitting
on him." I was completely surprised. She had asked me to give
her a hug, and had admired my hair. Was this a come-on? I
thought it was just a little interlude in a big party. These
women agreed that there was something more. I was suddenly and
permanently impressed. The woman who had spent a moment to share
her space with me was famous. She could have anyone she wanted.
She had a lover, and she wanted to be closer to me! I didn't
have to lose weight. I didn't have to change my hair color. I
didn't have to learn French or memorize a wine list. Women like
me! Just the way I am!
"I am duty-bound to inform you that this man is my best friend's
husband," Samantha said, and my momentary admirer quietly
disappeared.
~~~ oOo ~~~
I believe it was Dossie Easton who wrote that she discovered God
loved her when she found the joy and pleasure of physical touch.
We are creations of God, and pleasure is God's way of saying we
are on the right track. Some pleasures may deceive, but every
minister tells me that serving God and serving mankind is a
pleasure. Epicurus wrote, "pleasure is good; long lasting
pleasure is better."
~~~ oOo ~~~
"Maybe you're not doing it right."
Mike and I were riding in a taxi, talking about sex. The driver
had commented that she didn't enjoy sex, didn't get anything out
of it. This was Mike's response.
"What do you mean?" she asked.
Mike said that if sex were done properly, then everyone involved
would have a good time. If there were no pleasure in it for one
of the participants, then something was missing. Mike said he
made sure that anyone he enjoyed sex with also enjoyed it.
"That sounds pretty interesting. I haven't had sex in a long
time, and it would be nice if I had some enjoyment of it," the
taxi driver said.
They dropped me off at home, and after a long weekend I saw Mike
again. He was in a very good mood, but he kept quiet about what
had transpired. It was a small town, and I noticed the taxi
driver's mood had improved as well.
~~~ oOo ~~~
(c) Associated Press
The Law is a two-edged sword. One statement of the law is
"Energy flows where attention goes." While one can control
nature, it's not always a simple formula. Part of the control is
directing the natural energy that already exists. The Topanga
Canyon rockslide shows that natural energy is very great. What
was a road, and will be again, is in need of tending. It won't
turn into a clear road again all by itself. If we wish to have
nature take a certain form, we need to tend it. All our lives
need tending. The pyramids of Egypt are all in decay, not
because they weren't designed properly, but because they are not
maintained. Earthquake, flood, fire, and wind, the four
destructive forces of the Aztec universe, act on all we build.
Add to that mold, mildew, and dry rot, and you can see that
everything we have requires some ongoing attention. If you don't
pay attention to it, it will go away.
One might ask why I'm paying attention to the rockslide when we
have absolutely huge monster disasters I could talk about. Well,
I have been on the Topanga Canyon road. I can see that it's not
likely that three of my friends and I would move the rock. It's
a lesson on a scale that has meaning to me.
Wednesday, January 05, 2005 1:14:03 AM
Whoa! Stocks are going down! The first two days of the year
they appeared to pull back seriously.
How serious is it, though? Looking at stock after stock, I find
the traders have pulled back to the 50-day moving average. When
I do the arithmetic, I find the 2-day plunge was 2.7%. Except
that the move was so sudden, it's not a change in trend just yet.
The rest of the week will tell whether this was actually a buying
opportunity.
Many analysts and journalists wrote nice "things will be mildly
bullish in 2005" articles last week. Is January a good time to
be bullish? Over the last five years, stocks fell in January
three times. And the other two years they fell later. Not a
bullish tendency, in the interim. Last year was mildly bullish,
but we endured eight months of slowly declining prices.
What to buy? Hmm ... I've found 43 stocks that have risen 10%
in price since November 30, 2004. This could be the right time
to study puts, straddles, and calendars, too.
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