Dave's Blog

Thu, 31 Jul 2003 

Recently I read The Mythical Man-Month, by Federick Brooks, Jr. 
After years of reading the literature of the internet-based dot-com 
startup culture, a few weeks ago I chanced across a tome of the old, 
traditional software development culture. My first impression was, 
"How times have changed!" But as I read on with an open mind, I 
realized that the old culture is still here, and in many cases the 
old culture still works. In fact, as I lift my head out of the book 
and look around, I find myself immersed in the old culture! 

In The Cathedral and the Bazaar, Eric Raymond advocated that the 
bazaar style of frequent minor releases kept a global community of 
developers interested in a project. Reward for these developers was 
usually in brownie points, i.e. reputation, and nothing more. 
Products that have evolved from this culture include Linux, Apache, 
and CVS. The idea that a group of people can collaborate successfully 
over the internet has been proven. 

Brooks explained the cathedral style of keeping expertise in-house, 
managing trade secrets and large projects in a monolithic structure. 
What he explained was that corporations had discovered many of the 
bazaar-style elements and incorporated them long before Eric Raymond 
performed his famous experiment. The idea of frequent minor releases 
was presented by Brooks, along with a description of the managerial 
trade-off that using that style implied. Brooks worked in a world 
where the corporation did its own product testing, and did it 
extensively. It is unlikely that the many eyes that Eric Raymond 
used would have built corporation-scale laboratories and tested 
software in quite the manner that the corporations did. Perhaps we 
will see stress test laboratories for open development, but they are 
likely to be sponsored by corporations such as IBM or Red Hat. 
Successful products that come out of the cathedral environment are 
not often distributed freely; they include the SAABRE airline 
reservation system and the global credit card clearing systems. In 
the area of shrink-wrapped software, consider that Java, Word and 
Excel are developed and maintained in cathedral environments. 

I believe both points of view can be equally applied to both types 
of environment. There are overlapping elements of project management 
for each style, and it is good to compare and contrast the needs of 
each type of development team. In addition to the breadth one gets 
from examining both points of view, and the insight one can take 
while crossing over from one environment to the other, an element of 
humility may emerge. There is no one true way of software 
engineering, and the discipline is certainly larger than the context 
of the moment. What was true in 1975 is still true today, just as 
what was true in 1999 is still true today. As each book explains its 
point of view, we can learn to use both points of view to see a 
bigger picture. 


Wednesday, July 30, 2003 9:50:24 PM 

The Universe talks to me.  It talks through people, it talks through 
circumstances, and it talks through my intuition.  Sometimes I just 
recognize something going on that I didn't recognize before.  

I was working at a financial company once where the whole culture was 
nervous about job security.  "How are you?" would elicit the stock 
response of "I'm still here."  I was brought on for a project that 
was cancelled a month after I arrived, and I watched regular 
employees get laid off without so much as a "Thank you for your 
service."  In ten months I watched three waves of layoffs, the last 
two of which were done in an air of secrecy.  I would hear through 
someone at another site that someone two rows away from me had left 
the company.  Sure enough, when I went to look the cube was empty.  

Living through three layoffs in under a year might have shaken me the 
way it was shaking the regular employees.  I could have chosen to 
see lack in the circumstances.  But no, that was not my personal 
experience.  I was there to learn new technologies and to be rewarded 
for my contribution to the projects to which I was assigned.  There 
was never any suggestion that I leave the company.  To the last day 
that I worked there, I was welcome.  When I left, it was because I 
chose to go.  

In a culture that had people wondering whether they could come to 
work on Monday, the Universe told me I was always welcome.  


Tuesday, July 29, 2003 6:26:25 PM 

What lies ahead for me? Will I have security, wealth, happiness? How 
often have we asked for assurance that all will be well? Even when 
my friends have told me I was awesomely successful, I have sometimes 
doubted that I have done as well as I could, or that I would continue 
to be successful. Somehow, on the verge of a major purchase, I have 
wondered, "Will I be able to make the payments?" 

To find the answer, I look back to the past. Taking ten-year 
increments, let us see whether I could have predicted I would be 
where I am today. Let us see whether any harm has come to me, and 
whether "making the payments" turned out to be a major issue. 

1953:  Just a babe, living in complete dependency and trust. Not even 
	aware of where I was or who I was. People took care of me, and 
	that was a fact of life. Fed, clothed, and housed; all my needs 
	were provided for. 

1963:  Still a child, living in complete dependency and trust. Aware, 
	in the sixth grade, living in situations that some would 
	interpret as very dangerous, but enjoying the moment and my 
	immediate security as if there were no other point of view. 
	When revolution loomed I was whisked away to safety. I was 
	sitting on top of the world.  Fed, clothed, and housed; I didn't 
	concern myself about security. 

1973:  Officially adult, serving in the Armed Forces. Clothed, fed, 
	housed, employed. Playing with awesome toys, radio and 
	telecommunication equipment that spanned the Earth. Five 
	promotions in four years! Security was absolutely not an issue. 

1983:  Living in San Francisco, fulfilling my childhood dream. 
	Studying engineering, and actually working for an engineering 
	organization! Still employed, still clothed, fed, and housed, 
	and sharing my life with another person who supported my growth. 
	Playing with awesome toys, including mainframe computers and 
	microcomputers. 

1993:  Still clothed, fed, housed, and employed. Sharing my life with 
	someone who wished me well. Traveling at times, to the far 
	reaches of the Earth, just for entertainment. Consulting with 
	computer manufacturers and with telecommunications companies. 
	Playing with awesome toys, including high-end engineering 
	workstations, graphics workstations, and departmental servers! 

Today:  Still clothed, fed, housed, and employed! Sharing my life with 
	someone who cares about my growth! Traveling at times, 
	throughout the United States, for both business and pleasure! 
	Consulting with financial service companies. Playing with 
	awesome toys, including high-end internet servers! 

Was there ever a time when I did not have enough? When I could not 
meet my obligations? No! Not once! There were times when I had to 
adjust my idea of what I wanted to spend my money on, and had to 
adjust my idea of what was necessity and what was luxury, but I have 
never had to default on my obligations. I have never slept on the 
street, never risked starvation. When I made a commitment, such as a 
rent payment or a mortgage, the commitment was always met. 

I believe there is a pattern here. All my life the Universe has 
cared for me. All my life, from the first day to this day, I have 
lived in the grace of the Universe supporting my needs and my 
declarations. Every turn in my life has been onto a higher road than 
I traveled before. Every surprise and shift in my life has served to 
open to me new opportunities, new insights, new power. 

Years ago I abandoned the old man in the white robes, with the crown, 
dictating from afar what my life should be, answering the petitions 
made in private pleadings in the dark. The Universe turned out to be 
much more powerful than that, and I have learned to trust in the 
infinite intelligence, in the infinite possibility, of the infinite 
combinations that the Universe can manifest. Everything has gone for 
the better in the past, and after half a century of experiencing the 
support of the Universe, I am confident that everything will go for 
the better in the future. 

Bayes showed us that a pattern consistently revealed becomes a rule. 
If the Sun has risen in the East for every day since we can remember, 
then surely the Sun will rise in the East tomorrow. My life has 
improved continuously since the day I was born, and my life will 
improve tomorrow. Thank you, Universe, for your consistent pattern. 
Thank you for supporting me, and for showing me that all is well, all 
has ever been well, and therefore all will ever be well. 


Monday, July 28, 2003 12:45:02 AM 

Imagine what the Universe would be like if it worked for you.  What 
would it do if it were your faithful servant?  All the knowledge of 
the Universe is possessed by it.  Look through time and space.  Look 
at all of history, all of the future, all of the implications of 
what is happening right now, everywhere.  Billions of people on this 
planet.  Billions of stars in this galaxy.  Energy flowing from one 
end to the other, interconnected.  Electricity, magnetism, gravity, 
all touching you from every far reach of existence.  What does it do 
for you?  Is it supporting you?  There is just enough gravity to 
hold the atmosphere to the Earth without crushing your body.  There 
is enough abundance in the world to feed you and let you express 
yourself, without overwhelming you with a storage problem.  There is 
a distribution system that brings food to you, so you don't have to 
farm and cultivate everything you eat.  The Sun rises with splendor, 
and sets with magnificence, and you are alive to see it for yourself.  
The Universe does support you.  

Someone whom I respected as an authority once commented that it was 
unfortunate that miracles did not happen in the modern world.  This 
comment was made some thirty years ago.  I did not know any better 
at the time, and I just catalogued the thought for future 
investigation.  Since then I have learned what miracles really are, 
and they happen all the time.  St. John (Maximovich), the 
Wonderworker, Bishop of San Francisco, lived in our lifetime and was 
acquainted with my wife, Margaret.  His miracles included the healing 
of the sick through faith, and the incorruption of his body after 
death.  This happened in the latter 20th Century, and miracles are 
going on all around us even now.  Most commonly we recognize miracles 
of healing, such as the recovery of cases that medical doctors have 
declared hopeless.  Other miracles abound, such as the often ignored 
appearance of money in the street.  What is a miracle?  I have been 
told that miracles are events that science cannot explain.  That's a 
very nice definition, but it is wrong.  The Merriam-Webster 
Dictionary has three definitions:  

	1. an extraordinary event manifesting divine intervention 
	   in human affairs
	2. an extremely outstanding or unusual event, thing, or 
	   accomplishment
	3. Christian Science:  a divinely natural phenomenon 
	   experienced humanly as the fulfillment of spiritual law 

None of these definitions make the claim that science cannot 
explain a miracle.  

Let us examine momentarily what science can or cannot explain.  How 
about the speed of light?  No, the supposed, rigid speed of light that 
we all memorized in school was the speed of light in free space, as 
deduced from the best measurements and theories of the 19th Century.  
We have demonstrated that light can move at any speed, in direct 
contradiction to what was, and may still be, taught as a known fact 
in high schools and colleges throughout the world.  OK, let's go for 
something simpler.  How about the mass of the Universe?  Oops, sorry.  
Scientists disagree on that one.  It seems for modern theories to be 
reconciled, one has to surmise that 99% of the mass of the Universe 
has yet to be observed, found or catalogued.  OK, let's go for 
something more classical, like the origin of disease.  Oops again!  
Doctors who have been through the most rigorous training (I've heard 
the war stories) will tell you they haven't a clue.  They can tell 
you that you have symptoms of one disease or another, and they can 
tell you whether they have something that will alleviate the symptoms, 
but as far as where the disease came from or how it can be healed, 
unless it's a bacterium or an animal parasite they are as much in the 
dark as you are, maybe even more so.  

We see miracles every day.  Unexpected money comes our way.  We meet 
someone by chance who thrills us to no end, and after really getting 
to know them we discover that they are perfect for helping us grow 
in our own path.  Jobs appear that fulfill us creatively, and acclaim 
falls on us when we felt that we were just doing what comes naturally.  
(Which we were, that's why it seems like a miracle.)  Diseases that 
one or another medical expert have declared incurable just disappear 
one day.  All these miracles happen to millions of people every day.  

So suppose that the Universe, that interconnected web of electricity, 
magnetism, and gravity, has intelligence.  After all, you have 
intelligence, don't you?  And we know that you are the biggest, most 
powerful, omniscient thing in the Universe, right?  Like Albert 
Einstein and every doctor who told you no, your challenge of the day  
was incurable, and you would have to use their patented ointment for 
the rest of your life.  What would the intelligence of the Universe 
look like?  Would your life be its beginning and its end?  Actually, 
for you, yes!  Just like the cut on your skin healed, just like that 
odd condition the doctors said wouldn't heal just went away one 
day, just like somehow there's a train or a bus every day at the 
exact same time just so you can get on it and go to some place that 
you never knew of before, but is just perfect for you to express 
yourself in a way that will satisfy millions of customers,  the 
Universe's intelligence is working for you, personally.  

Be careful what you say, because everything you say is an affirmation.  
Whatever you declare is done.  The Universe hears you, and moves 
everything in heaven and earth to support your declaration.  That is 
why we sometimes find ourselves saying things like "You'll never 
believe this, but the most amazing thing happened for me today."  
Yes, I'll believe it.  If some set of coincidences played together to 
make your desire come true, it was the Universe moving to support 
your declaration.  It happens on a grand scale, and it happens on a 
small scale.  People in San Francisco become proud of their "parking 
karma" when they are able to manifest a parking space in just the 
right place and time.  That's a small miracle, the Universe working 
for them on a small scale.  Then there are the free upgrades to First 
Class, the free round-trip tickets to conventions, the forgiven and 
forgotten vacation time still available on the books after you use 
it.  Miracles on a grander scale.  Then there's the Miracle of Life.  
Every breath you take, by the grace of the gravity that holds the 
atmosphere to the Earth, by the grace of the plants that evolved 
over millions of years to create the oxygen your body needs, by the 
grace of the Sun that pumps energy into the ecosphere every day, is 
a miracle.  The Universe is alive, the Universe is intelligent, the 
Universe is a miracle.  How can you tell?  Look at yourself!  


Sunday, July 27, 2003 7:10:21 PM 

OK, here we have it!  The recession that the press has been wringing 
its hands over, that started in March 2001, ended in November 2001.  
In an article titled "In Case You Missed It, Recession Ended," 
Reuters reported on Thursday that the National Bureau of Economic 
Research, Business Cycle Dating Committee has agreed.  The date the 
recession ended was the same year it started; the recession lasted 
eight -- count them -- eight months.  

I counted them, and it looks like 15 months to me.  What governs a 
recession?  Most definitions, and that of the NBER, use Gross 
Domestic Product.  Two quarters of declining GDP, and you have a 
recession.  The end of a recession is not defined.  So we can have 
two -- count them -- two years of mixed press about a recession 
that doesn't even exist any more, before the Bureau (that's a 
government agency, right?) decides "oops, oh well, never mind, the 
recession ended long ago and what's the big deal anyway?"  

In its announcement the Committee conceded that the employment 
situation confused the issue, but then noted that "the length of the 
2001 downturn was 'slightly less than average' for recessions in the 
post World War II period and . . . relatively mild in terms of
output."

In an article published the same day the AFP noted "The US recession 
is over -- in fact it was over by the time it was declared. ...  
The National Bureau of Economic Research said it concluded that the 
economy hit a 'trough' in business activity in November 2001. ... 
'The trough marks the end of the recession that began in March 2001 
and the beginning of an expansion,' the NBER said. 'The recession 
lasted eight months, which is slightly less than average for 
recessions since World War II.' ...  Because of the time lag required 
to determine the business cycle, the recession was virtually over by 
the time it was officially declared on November 26, 2001." 

If you've been demoralized by all the bad press you've seen about the 
economy in the Associated Press, or in its indiscriminate consumer 
the San Francisco Chronicle, take heart.  You should see nothing 
but optimism for the rest of the year, employers should be more 
interested in hiring you now, and it's an excellent time to 
interview and hire on before the rest of the jobless wake up to this 
time of opportunity.  

As for myself, I have deleted AP off of the my.yahoo front page, and 
I've added Reuters and AFP.  You see, I have found that I can select 
what news competes for my attention, and I have begun that selection 
process consciously.  You can too!  

I'll have more to say about the conscious selection of information in 
future musings, but for now let's examine the unemployment rate.  
Today the U.S. unemployment rate stands at 6.4%, and a lot of people 
feel that opportunity has disappeared.  Never mind that 93.6% of the 
workforce is cranking out record high productivity, and that a lot of 
us are doing overtime, with or without pay.  Margaret showed me the 
official history of the unemployment rate, published by the U.S. 
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Yes, it's another 
government agency, the one that publishes the unemployment figures 
the Associated Press is all consternated about.  A little rummaging 
around can show you that the monthly unemployment rate was higher 
than it is now for periods during:  
	1949-1950 
	1958 
	1960-1961 
	1974-1977  
	1980-1987 (eight years!)
	1991-1994  
During 1982-1983 the unemployment rate rose to over 10%!  Your 
grandparents and your parents didn't starve, and neither will you.  

By the way, if you've decided to stay in high tech, I recommend you 
learn to program in Java.  Although languages come and go, this one 
seems to have the staying power that FORTRAN, COBOL, and C had.  If 
you learn it and learn it well, it should give you satisfaction for 
many years.  


Sunday, July 06, 2003 12:53:47 AM 

Here we go again.  Business Week reports the unemployment rate in the 
United States has risen to 6.4%, the highest level in nine years.  
The article goes on to state that the losses were experienced in 
manufacturing, and that the service sector actually gained jobs.  
Let’s see ... as I recall, economists noted the economy was shifting 
toward the service sector about twenty years ago.  

A look at the stock returns indicates the hottest areas this year 
are Internet Software, Wireless Services, Biotechnology, Office 
Electronics, and Computer Storage & Peripherals.  

Elsewhere we are told that the recovery will be "jobless" because 
businesses are relying more on contingent labor than on hiring.  
Hello!  I’m a consultant, this is good news for me!  Usually 
recoveries start with an uptick in the temporary, contract, and 
consulting sector, to be followed later by permanent hires.  

As a side note, the S.F. Business Times reports that there has 
been a net gain of 8,000 jobs this year in the Oakland metropolitan 
area.  

Just for fun, let's take a look at 1994, the last time unemployment 
reached 6.4%.  That year there was no talk of recession.  I was in 
the middle of a 19-month period of continuous employment at Silicon 
Graphics, with an agency called Taos Mountain Software.  We were on 
a roll.  At that time Taos was still a contracting agency, and they 
laughed at the suggestion that they take a run at the likes of EDS.  
They were growing, but not as quickly as they would in later years.  
Silicon Graphics was about one-tenth the size of Sun Microsystems, 
but they were developing supercomputers that would drive Cray out of 
business, and they were licensing their MIPS graphics chipset to a 
hot little company called Voodoo Graphics.  Everyone either wanted an 
SGI Indigo, an SGI Indy, or a high-end Intel machine with Voodoo 
graphics.  When Jurassic Park came out the whole company went 
to the theater, during business hours, and watched the film.  Food, 
beer, wine, and toys were plentiful in those days, and the reigning 
guru of management was Tom Peters, of In Search of Excellence fame. 
We felt the company was a big surrogate family.  

During that same year I had a second, direct contract with Accuray, 
providing network printing, data storage and data integrity services 
while they searched for many months for a qualified system 
administrator.  So, let's see ... I was working 45-hour weeks, for 
two companies, at contracting rates!  

The first time I wrote an article like this was May 10, 2001.  In 
that article I examined the comment that we were in the worst 
economic conditions in ten years, that is since 1991.  If that trend 
is continued, then we should find that our current recovery is 
proceeding a little faster than the last one.  We have covered in 
two years in this cycle a sequence of evolution that took three 
years a decade ago.  

When I first tried to get into a consulting job in high tech it took 
me a year to get a reasonable response.  If you find you're frustrated 
by current economic conditions or current clients' attitudes, keep 
doing whatever you are doing to make money, and keep knocking on that 
high-tech consulting door.  One of these days it will open for you.  

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