These are the picks for the 2002 season. The bold represents the team selected to win. Games in red represent the Upset of the Week. At the bottom, The weekly and overall records for the season appear at the bottom. These picks are based purely on winners and losers with no consideration from the spread. The spread is used only to determine upsets for the Upset of the Week.
No one saw this coming. They were preseason favorites to meet in the upcoming Super Bowl. One was at the doorstep, losing in the AFC Championship. The other reached the dance but was prom king runner-up. After three weeks, neither team has a win.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2) and St. Louis Rams (0-3) will have a hard enough time reaching the playoffs, let alone reaching Super Bowl XXXVII. Only one team has ever started 0-2 and won it all. That team was the 2001 New England Patriots who beat Pittsburgh, then St. Louis for the Lombardi Trophy. What happened to these teams since February 4th? The reasons are different, but if the problems aren't fixed, they will be on the same road to disappointment.
The first stop heading West is Pittsburgh. What can be said about their 0-2 start? Apparently not much. The players are very quiet after spitting out numerous soundbites as early as after AFC Championship. Quarterback Kordell Stewart flatly said, "Sometimes the better team doesn't win." Months later it was strong safety Lee Flowers declaring the Steelers as the team to beat in the AFC, not the defending champions.
But when the games started, they didn't back up their words. In the season opener, a rematch of the AFC Championship, the 'Burgh was out-played in facet of the game, suffering a 30-14 loss. Things didn't get better the following week, when they faced the Oakland Raiders. Once again the defense was picked apart and the offense continued to have problems. After the final whistle, it was another embarrassing loss, this time by a 30-17 count.
When your first two opponents score 60 points, it's obvious defense is a problem. Considering how successful the Blitzburgh 3-4 has been so effective over the years, it's surprising to see it victimized. But offensive evolution is seemingly passing the rarely used scheme by.
With emphasis on passing. The 3-4 is very effective at stopping basic offenses (two WRs, two RBs, and a TE) but spread offenses (empty backfield, five receivers) has exposed a shortcoming of the defensive scheme. It's a mismatch for any safety or linebacker to try and stay with wide receivers. Combined, opposing quarterbacks completed 72 of 107 for 697 yards and four touchdowns.
With so much focus on stopping the pass, the run defense has suffered as well. But if they can cancel the weekly air shows, then they should regain the form that was the best run defense last year. And if the defense reduces scoring, the offense will have a chance to recover. Then running back Jerome Bettis can start backing up his smack from the NFL 2K2 commercials.
The Rams might be experiencing sleepless nights because playoff dreams should be over. The defense that played so well last year has been more giving. The safety net, better known as The Greatest Show on Turf, has been renamed The Greatest No-show... Scoring is down drastically. Quarterback Kurt Warner's eye-popping stats has been reduced to one stat that's an eye-sore: seven interceptions. Compounded with a running game that averages 71 yards a game, the Rams offense isn't showing much.
Turning around the defense falls on defensive coordinator Lovie Smith. The blame for the offense goes to head coach Mike Martz. He was the architect that made St. Louis' offense so dangerous. He still calls the plays and his thumbprint is obvious. And thumbprints can be used as evidence, making Martz guilty of ruining a great offense.
His play-calling is pass-heavy. Martz believes his sophisticated passing plays are unbeatable. Maybe so, but the offense is now predictable to a fault. Keep throwing the ball, and eventually interceptions will happen, as will sacks.
A effective way to reduce such negative plays would be to run the ball. With Marshall Faulk in the backfield, why would a coach not hand the ball off to one of the most explosive running backs in the league? It's a question Martz can't answer. After two games, Faulk had 24 carries.
But even with predictable play calling and no running game, the 'Lou can turn it around offensively if attention to detail is stressed. Martz said in the past that sacks and picks come with being the a dangerous passing offense. The truth is, preventing interceptions and sacks improves pass efficiently. The offensive line is being manhandled. If Warner has the time to throw, he can settle down and pick apart secondarys. Martz has to do what's best for the team or he could find himself without a team.
It's not too late for Pittsburgh and St. Louis to turn it around, but time is running out. The next few weeks will determine the rest of their seasons and they need to start winning now. Because if either falls deeper into the hole, it will kill any hopes of having a successful season. R.I.P.
Carolina at Green Bay - L
Okay, so they handled Baltimore, crushed Detroit, and defeated Minnesota. Little was expected out of these three teams anyway. There's doubters out there that believe 'Lina's 3-0 record is based upon wins against bad teams. What Carolina needs is a win against the Packers to begin converting disbeliveers. The Panthers go out and get that W.
Chicago at Buffalo - L
When quarterback Drew Bledsoe was on the trading block, there were rumors that Chicago might be interested. Such whispering stopped when Chi-town resigned QB Jim Miller. Eventually Bledsoe was relocated to Buffalo. Bledsoe has put the Bills in position to win, including an overtime win in Minnesota. On a final drive, Miller's last pass was intercepted. Only time will tell if Chicago did the right thing, but Miller will be enough for the Bears to come out on top.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh - L
He no longer goes by Slash, but Steelers quarterback Kordell Stewart could be slashed from the starting lineup. With the offense not producing, he's been given an ultimatum to get the offense rolling, or he'll be benched. Stewart has been consistently inconsistent as a QB and this is looking like a down year. Stewart takes a seat as the Browns rise to the occasion for the Upset of the Week.
Dallas at St. Louis - L
Already fans in St. Louis are calling for the tête of head coach Mike Martz on a platter. If they accommodate for the size of his id, that would be a huge platter. The Rams serve up the Cowboys.
Houston at Philadelphia - W
The beatings will stop someday, but when? At the rate the Texans are going at, the star-shaped eye of the logo will change color from white to black. The Eagles deck Houston.
Miami at Kansas City - L
I watched KC's Priest Holmes this past Sunday. The man is a machine. If he continues to produce, he can become the most dangerous running back in the league. There's almost no stopping him. Unfortunately, Holmes is just one of the cogs in the Chiefs engine. The other parts don't run as smoothly as Holmes. The Dolphins slow down Kansas City.
New Orleans at Detroit - L
The Lions were so close to giving the home crowd at brand new Ford Field a win. But they did see promise in rookie quarterback Joey Harrington. Fans will have to take satisfaction in that because it could be a while before Detroit actually wins a game. The Saints march all over Detroit.
N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville - W
Jets quarterback Vinny Testaverde and offensive coordinator Paul Hackett are accepting blame for the lack of offensive production. New York scored 10 points in the last two games. There is a lot more blame to go around. The defense deserves a share. What team can win if opponents put up 105 points in three games? Numbers will add up the wrong way again as the Jaguars chalk up a W.
N.Y. Giants at Arizona - L
How is it New York can go to St. Louis, put up 26 points, but can muster only nine at home against one of the worst defenses in the league? Don't expect the trend to continue as the Giants find their scoring touch and smoke the Cardinals.
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati - W
A big deal is being made of the sideline confrontation between TB wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson and head coach Jon Gruden. Coach Chucky isn't new to stirring up the ire in his players. He and Rich Gannon often exchanged verbal venom. They won two divisional crowns. Let them argue because success solves even the most volatile disputes. This Buccaneers win will be loud and clear.
New England at San Diego - L
In the preseason NE was sportin' T-shirts titled Target: September. On the back was a target with the first four opponents in the bullseye. Three down, one to go. The misfiring defense will correct itself and the Patriots pick off the Chargers.
Tennessee at Oakland - W
The bye came just in time for the Raiders. After throwing 64 passes two weeks ago, quarterback Rich Gannon needed extra time for his arm to recover. Gannon leads the Raiders past the Titans.
Minnesota at Seattle - W
Vikings wide receiver Randy Moss claims he was misinterpreted when he said he plays when he wants to. Based upon last week's performance he looked like he took the whole game off. A much harder-working Seahawks team punch the clock and put Minnesota's lights out.
Denver at Baltimore - Monday Night - L
Broncos quarterback Brian Griese found his way to the injury report in a strange way. He tripped over his dog, suffering an ankle sprain. Anticipated injuries include blood clots in the arm caused by a neighbor's python and a concussion from boxing a kangaroo. The Broncos keep a leg up on the Ravens.
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