These are the picks for the 2002 season. The bold represents the team selected to win. Games in red represent the Upset of the Week. At the bottom, The weekly and overall records for the season appear at the bottom. These picks are based purely on winners and losers with no consideration from the spread. The spread is only used to determine upsets for the Upset of the Week.
One day while at work, someone asked me to predict which teams would reach the next Super Bowl. Labeling me a football "expert," he figured that I had mulled such a query repeatedly in my mind during the offseason.
Picking Super Bowl participants has never been something that I've ever been a fan of. There's no logical way to predict which two teams will be left standing to play for the NFL Championship. It's not like this is hockey, where the team(s) that assemble the best talent and make the biggest trades before the trading deadline (see Red Wings '02, Avalanche '01, Stars '99) likely make it all the way. Nor is the NFL like baseball, where it's always the New York Yankees vs. whoever-makes-it-out-of-the National League. Success in pro football is two parts: Assembling the best team possible and playing the best when it counts.
Part one is all math: Best team built while under the salary cap. Part two is the most important factor in a team's success, but it's virtually unpredictable. After all, luck will play a role in a team's success, and how do you predict luck?
So how does an individual make a prediction on Super Bowl participants? One way is to look at the past winners and make a prediction based on recent history. For instance:
Of the last five Super Bowl winners, only once did a team repeat. The Denver Broncos won a pair for the 1998 and 1999 seasons. That doesn't bode well for the New England Patriots, the current champions.
How about inspiration? The Green Bay Packers wanted to win one for defensive end Reggie White. Much like the Broncos wanted to win for John Elway a year later. Neither player won the big game until then. Ancient artifacts currently in the league worth being sympathetic for would be about half of the Oakland Raiders roster.
Difficult times can always be inspiring for teams. The Patriots lost quarterback coach Dick Rehbein during the preseason. A few games into the season, they lost then-starting quarterback Drew Bledsoe to injury for several weeks. The St. Louis Rams can relate, as Trent Green was lost for the year in the preseason. And Baltimore Ravens middle linebacker Ray Lewis nearly lost his livelihood for being involved in a pair of murders after the Super Bowl. All these teams played inspiring ball through the season that culminated in a Super Bowl win.
Leading candidates for such storylines would be the Miami Dolphins who added running back Robert Edwards to their roster. He came back from a career threatening knee injury that required three years of rehabilitation to get him back into the league. He scored two touchdowns in his first game back. Bledsoe and the Buffalo Bills are candidates. He returns after suffering a life-threatening injury. Throw in the Cincinnati Bengals for over a decade of difficult times.
Going back to the 'Lou, B-more, and NE, all three teams won with the back-up quarterback taking hold of the reigns and driving the team to the ultimate prize. Possible back-up signal callers that might have to answer the call starts in Denver, where Steve Beurlein nearly replaced Brian Griese in the first game this season. Kelly Holcomb subbed for Tim Couch for Cleveland, but that won't last. So don't expect the Browns to make it. This makes another strong case for Cincy, since we all know none of their three QBs could start anywhere in the league today. Same goes for the Washington Redskins, and Dallas Cowboys.
For some reason, big changes often preceded eventual champs. The Rams moved from Los Angeles to St. Louis. The Ravens did the same, leaving Cleveland and the Browns name for Baltimore and a fresh start. Tennessee abandoned Houston and reached the big game after changing their names to the Titans, though they did not win it all. No teams moved, but the Texans were added to the league. And the Seattle Seahawks moved from the AFC West to the NFC West. A Texans-Seahawks match-up to decided the winner? Hmmm?
It's not always changing locations. Changing uniforms seem to improve a team's mojo. The Broncos won two in a row after leaving behind the Orange Crush look for the current navy blue look. Only after abandoning the Oliers name did the Titans get to the dance, albeit a season later. And the Patriots hoisted the Lombardi Trophy a year after their most recent fashion statement. New unis in the league are in Washington and Buffalo. That would make for an interesting SB XXXVII.
New looks hasn't changed things for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers though. Pewter Power peters out in the playoffs. But maybe things will be different this year with new leadership, after trading for head coach Jon Gruden. Trading for a head coach worked wonders for the Patriots. The results should arrive in TB in two years.
Now it's time to get cutthroat...um, serious (The throat slash motion has been outlawed by the league, remember?). The last three Super Bowl winners had losing records of 5-11 or less the season before winning it all. That leaves Buffalo, the San Diego Chargers, Dallas, the Detroit Lions, and Carolina. I'll add Houston to the mix because they have no history
Lastly, teams that win their season opener have a 53 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. That strikes the Bills, Cowboys and Lions from the remaining six. I'll eliminate the Texans because an expansion team has never won it all.
So my super prediction for Super Bowl XXXVII is...the San Diego Chargers versus the Carolina Panthers. Ridiculous? Maybe, but I have history backing me up on this. For if we've learned anything from the past few Super Bowls, we've learned that the league is unpredictable.
Chicago at Atlanta - L
Falcons cornerback Ray Buchanan was just suspended for four games after testing positive for steroids. No one could had ever thought he was juiced after Buchanan and his secondary mates were toasted by Green Bay's Brett Favre. The suspension puts a damper on QB Michael Vick's coming out party. Call this week a make-up as Vick leads the Falcons to a win in Buchanan's absence.
Cincinnati at Cleveland - W
Can you believe Cleveland fans wanted linebacker Dwayne Rudd released for costing the Browns the game? Remember Rudd threw off his helmet when he thought the play was over The Chiefs gained an additional 15 yards on the play, setting up the game-winning field goal. And the Cleveland fans talk like they never made a mistake. Let he who didn't cast a glass bottle at a ref last year be the one to pass judgement. After the fans shut up, they will enjoy the Browns picking up their first win of the season.
Detroit at Carolina - L
The monkey is off the back of the Panthers after breaking the 15-game losing streak. Fending off the King of the Jungle is a different matter all together. The Lions get the better of Carolina in the Upset of the Week.
Green Bay at New Orleans - L
There's been a lot of talk about the fact that every team running back Ahman Green has gained 100 yards in a game for are undefeated. It only reinforces that for a team to be successful, you must run the ball. Expect Green to get the carries needed to eclipse the century mark as the Packers handle the Saints.
Jacksonville at Kansas City - L
KC knows they were extremely fortunate to have won last week. The coaches hope the manner in which they won doesn't repeat itself. they'd rather see running back Priest Holmes carry a ball before any offensive lineman. As for the game, the Chiefs knock off the Jaguars.
Miami at Indianapolis - W
Showing they have all the confidence in the world in running back Ricky Williams, Miami restructured his contract to make his bonuses easier to reach. If Williams earns a bonus this year, he will have gold fleece woven into his dreadlocks by playoff time. Bling-bling, baby! The Dolphins beat on the Colts when they were in the AFC East and that won't change this time around.
New England at N.Y. Jets - W
This is an unfamiliar and uncomfortable position for NE this week. They are favored to win. The last time that was the case, the Patriots was laying the smack-down on the 1-14 Panthers. How can they motivate themselves about lack of respect now? Head coach Bill Belichick will find a way to motivate the troops. The Patriots mow down the Jets.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore - W
Kickers are no longer alone in the boneheaded section of the Football Hall of Fame. Miami's Garo Yepremian was singled out for his intercepted pass that prevented a Mami shutout in Super Bowl VII.over Washington. joining him will be TB punter Tom Tupa for throwing the pick that ended the game. His bust and a replay of the busted play will be part of the display. Fortunately mistakes won't cost the Buccaneers this game against the Ravens.
Tennessee at Dallas - L
What does it say about your team when you kick off the season by losing to an expansion team? Simply put, the Cowboys have a long way to go. Quincy Carter is the starting quarterback, but for how long? The Titans, even without defensive end Javon Kearse, will get to Carter and drop the Cowboys.
Arizona at Seattle - L
At last 'Zona signed first round drafp pick, defensive tackle Wendell Bryant. But what's the chance he will play this Sunday with very little practice time? Maybe in a week or two. As for now, a fully stocked Seahawks wrap up a win.
N.Y. Giants at St. Louis - L
The most dangerous weapon in the NFL has been kept under control and it's not what opponents are doing. Blame St. Louis head coach Mike Martz. Yes running back Marshall Faulk totaled 91 yards receiving, but he needs carries to truly change games. Think back to the NFC Championship. They won the game by handing the ball to Faulk in the second half. If Martz puts his ego and love of passing the ball aside, the Rams should run away with this game on the legs of Faulk.
Buffalo at Minnesota - L
What was going through the head of Bills quarterback Drew Bledsoe as he watched the opening kickoff of overtime returned for a touchdown? Maybe something like, "Oh, s#*@, just like my last few years in New England." Bledsoe should have no illusion of winning after the Vikings dismantle the Bills.
Denver at San Francisco - L
The Broncos said they copied the blueprint of the New England Patriots' Super Bowl for their game last week in their win over the Rams. Playing aggressive can work against the flyweight receivers of St. Louis, but the big, physical wide outs of San Fran will make Denver pay if they try to come at them aggressively. The 49ers won't be pushed around.
Houston at San Diego - W
The Texans know they at least won't go winless. As far as securing a second win, well, that might be a while. SD won't be another victim. The Chargers put Houston in their place.
Oakland at Pittsburgh - W
The 'Burgh was humbled. Now they admit the better team won the AFC Championship. Even talk about being the team to beat in the AFC has stopped. Now the question is are the Steelers even the second-best team in the Conference. The Raiders take aim at the #2 position by stuffing Pittsburgh.
Philadelphia at Washington - Monday Night - W
What's up with the Redskins new uniform? The timing of the change reminds me when New England hired Bill Parcells as head coach and switched from red to blue jerseys. In 2002, Washington picks up former Florida Gators head coach Steve Spurrier and transforms the Redskins into Florida State. I guess putting warpaint on a Gator's head for a logo wouldn't fly with many fans. The Seminoles North come up short against the Eagles.
Home | Week 1 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Wild Card | Divisionals | Conference Championship | Super Bowl