Pittsburgh at Tennessee - W
Offense
Run: After falling behind by 17 in the third quarter, the Steelers had no choice but to air it out and abandon the run game. However, running back Amos Zereoue was the primary ball carrier. He played well and broke one run for 36 yards. The draw play ran by third string RB Chris Fuamatu-Maafala was the winning score with :54 left...It's no longer a Tennessee two-step offense for the Titans, but they march the ball stubbornly. It's not just running back Eddie George and quarterback Steve McNair to watch out for. RB Robert Holcombe will get a few carries and Mike Green could see a few touches. It's not a matter of efficiency, but they pound away until their opponent caves in.
Pass: There aren't many Pittsburgh passing records left for quarterback Tommy Maddox to break. He recovered from two early interceptions with 367 yards and three TDs. The receivers deserve compliments, as they didn't drop as many passes as the Cleveland receivers did. Pittsburgh's was 15 yards short of having three wide outs with 100 yards or more receiving on the day...He was known as Steve "Air" McNair in college and he's finally living up to it. The Titans offense goes only as far as McNair takes them. WR Kevin Dyson leads and average group of receivers. Fullback Greg Comella was added in the offseason to escort George on run plays. Comella has been underutilized as a receiver in the regular season. He could be an added wrinkle.
Defense
Run: The Steelers showed why they were the best run stopping defense in the league over 16 games. They shut down Cleveland's William Green, who was averaging 104 yards per game over his last seven games. Middle linebacker Kendrell Bell finished with nine tackles to lead the team when his availability was in question. Bell (questionable) needs to be on the field if the D is going to stop the 11th best run offense...The results are the same, but with a different method for Tennessee. They are the 2nd best run defense in the regular season. But how stout is it? They played against Houston twice, Indianapolis twice and New England. This Saturday will be a test to see if those numbers are legit. Keep an eye on LB Louis Bullock. He'll be around the ball a lot.
Pass: Be sure to compliment Pittsburgh cornerback Hank Poteat on his tan because he was toasted repeatedly. The Steelers were shorthanded in the secondary and were exploited repeatedly for big plays, beginning with the 83-yard completion that set up the first touchdown. They miss Chad Scott (questionable) and could be in another bind without him...Even before the Wild Card games, The Titans had the worst pass defense in the playoffs, ranked 25th in the league. The pass rush will get a boost with defensive end Javon Kearse ready to play. Fellow ends Kevin Carter and rookie Carlos Hall combined for 18 of the team's 40 sacks. Rookie strong safety Tank Williams is physical, but coverage isn't sound.
Special Teams: Kick returner Antwaan Randle-El might had got away with one on the punt return for a touchdown. His knee might had touched the ground when he picked up the ball. Pittsburgh gave up a big punt return as well, revealing a hole in their coverage unit...Tennessee is susceptible to a big punt returns, giving up 13.9 per punt return and three touchdowns. Kicker Joe Nedney has problems kicking long field goals. He was 6-of-10 from 40 yards or longer.
The Pick: This won't be the defensive struggle most expect. But key defensive plays will decide the outcome. The teams will combine for around 50 points, and the Titans will have slightly more than the Steelers.
Atlanta at Philadelphia - W
Offense
Run: The Green Bay defense felt like they were watching old monster movies as the Falcons backfield resembled Ghidorah, the three-headed dragon from "Godzilla" movies. Quarterback Michael Vick was matched by running back Warrick Dunn in yardage. T.J. Duckett returned from injury and relieved Dunn to the tune of 45 yards...The rushing offense will get a significant boost from the return of quarterback Donovan McNabb. In the six games he missed, Philly averaged 105 yards per game, 51 yards less than with McNabb. The backfield is four deep. Besides McNabb, running back Duce Staley gets the majority of carries but sits for Dorsey Levens and rookie Brian Westbrook.
Pass: Atlanta was fortunate to have two short fields to drive for touchdowns. When they had long drives, Vick stood in the pocket and delivered on short passes and kept drives going. When pressure was applied, he escaped all sack attempts, sometimes taking off to run. Vick wasn't sharp throwing, but the win mattered...What kind of McNabb will Eagles fans see? He was criticized for holding on to the ball for too long. For the weeks spent injured, he said he watched his back-ups get rid of the ball quickly and says he's better from watching. Receiver Todd Pinkston (probable) led the team in receptions, but the ball was well distributed, as five players had at least 40 receptions.
Defense
Run: Sitting on a substantial lead, the Falcons didn't have to be concerned about stopping the run for much of the game. For what it's worth, they did hold the leading rusher to 34 yards on eleven carries. What does deserve attention is dragging G.B. quarterback Brett Favre down for minus one yard rushing. now they must deal with a much more mobile passer...They finished as the best run defense in the league but the Eagles face an uncommon challenge in keeping Vick from running all over the place. MLB Levon Kirkland anchors the defense, but might see much less of the field because Kirkland lacks of speed. Philadelphia blitzes a lot and must get Vick or pay the consequences.
Pass: The Falcons intercepted two passes, one setting up the offense at the 21-yard line. With the ball spending more time in the air in the second half, Atlanta defensed six passes. They got a little help, as the Green Bay receivers dropped a handful of passes...It is a veteran secondary playing a playoff game in Veterans Stadium. The arena has seen better days, and so do most receivers. Both corners made the Pro Bowl in the past. Rookie safety Michael Lewis started the last four games of the regular season. He could be used as a spy occasionally. It will be interesting to watch how much coverage is played versus the number of blitzes.
Special Teams: The pivotal play came off of the punt unit. Kevin McCadem knocked a Green Bay blocker into the returner. After recovering the loose ball, the Falcons drove for a TD and were up by a commanding 21-0 lead. Just before that, they blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown...Opponents must be sound on coverage to stop Philly's Brian Mitchell. He averaged 27 yards per kickoff returns and scored a touchdown on a punt return. Maybe if he played coverage, the Eagles wouldn't be allowing 14 yards per punt return. Kicker David Akers is one of the best in the league.
The Pick: One game stands out for Vick when he looks back on the regular season. He never saw a defense as good as Tampa Bay's, a game Atlanta lost 34-10. Vick will have similar issues against Philly's D as the Eagles clip the Falcons' wings.
San Francisco at Tampa Bay - W
Offense
Run: For San Fran, quarterback Jeff Garcia being the team's leading rusher is not the plan. Not including Garcia's 60 yards and a touchdown, S.F.'s backfield gained 30 yards on 13 attempts with a score. The offensive line barely generated much push. Fortunately they did provide lanes for Garcia's scrambles on broken pass plays...This is not the Tampa Bay team of the Tony Dungy era. They struggle to run the ball, averaging 97.3 yards per game. Running back Michael Pittman, A free agent signee, didn't produce very well as a ball carrier. Fullback Mike Alstott didn't start all games, but decently complemented Pittman. In fairness, both are used significantly in the passing game.
Pass: Getting back to the 49ers offensive line, they gave up no sacks and allowed lanes for Garcia to escape the pocket and throw on the run. While he threw one pick, he more than made up for it with three TD tosses and running for one. New York's secondary could not cover the San Francisco receivers. Main threat Terrell Owens exploded for 177 yards and a touchdown and even threw a completion for 25 yards...Backup quarterbacks Shawn King and Rob Johnson produced 23 points and averaged 183 yards in the final two games of the regular season. Welcome back Brad Johnson! His efficiency (62.3 completion percentage and six Ints. in 14 games) makes the team go. Tampa Bay sports a lot of size in their receiving corps, but they lack downfield speed.
Defense
Run: Olé was the word of the day for San Fran front seven. New York's Tiki Barber darted around for 115 yards and a TD. Often he would get through the line of scrimmage before defenders made contact with him. S.F. had problems against slashing-type runners during the regular season...For all the talk about head coach Jon Gruden turning the offense around, unleashing the defense is the difference for the Bucanneers. There are more names worth mentioning when talking Bucs D. Linebacker Shelton Quarles was second on the team in tackles and defensive end Simeon Rice is showing he's more than just a pass rusher.
Pass: For what it's worth, the Niners' D showed up in the second half. They allowed 139 passing yards and no TD passes in the second half. More importantly they pitched a shutout in the final quarter, keeping the game close so the offense won the game at the end. No need to go over negatives. That could take a while...Over the course of the season, the Buccaneers discovered they now have two corners they can lean on. Brian Kelly led the team with eight interceptions. Opposite of him is former 2001 Pro Bowler Rhonde Barber. This is the best pass defense in the league with 31 picks (four returned for touchdowns) and 43 sacks.
Special Teams: If kicker Jeff Chandler misses his only field goal attempt, the 49ers lose the game. S.F. was decent on punt coverage, but punter Bill LaFleur was great, averaging 46.7 per punt...Scanning through the Tampa Bay special teams stats, one stands out in particular. Kicker Martin Gramatica was five of six on field goals of 50 yards or longer. Punter Tom Tupa deserves his due as well, dropping 30 punts inside the 20. Unfortunately he had to punt 90 times for the season.
The Pick: Will Tampa Bay quarterback Brad Johnson be able to step in and play like he did in his last six games? If San Francisco plays defense like they did in the Wild Card game, Johnson won't have problems adjusting and directs the Buccaneers to a win.
New York Jets at Oakland - L
Offense
Run: The 180 yards on the ground are a little inflated from grinding it out with a huge lead, but from the beginning, the Jets were making holes for running backs Curtis Martin and Lamont Jordan to expose. They had runs of 12, 14, 10, and 13 yards. And while none of them ended in touchdowns, it still moves the chains and chops distance off drives...While the numbers on the year are down for the Raiders in the running game, they aren't afraid to lean on it when they see it working. The regular season finale is a perfect example as Oakland ran the ball 60 times for 280 yards. RB Charlie Garner is the lead yard gainer and is the most dangerous with his breakaway speed. The others are Tyrone Wheatley and short yardage specialist Zack Crockett.
Pass: Quarterback Chad Pennington doesn't have the strongest arm, but he threw the ball where the Jets receivers could catch it. But, honestly, a QB might never have an easier three-touchdown game than the one Pennington had. The receivers were uncovered in the endzone and Indianapolis completely fell for the fake that led to the 56-yard screen pass...The player to watch when Oakland pass is not quarterback Rich Gannon. And don't pay too much attention to wide outs Jerry Rice and Tim Brown because they aren't as dangerous as Jerry Porter. He's the young and athletic third receiver who creates mismatches just by getting on the field. Rookie tight end Doug Jolley likely will have an expanded role with Roland Williams doubtful for the game.
Defense
Run: Indianapolis ran only 14 times so N.Y. didn't have to concern themselves about containing Indy's backfield. The linebackers will be tested early. They might determine Oakland's offensive attack for the afternoon. Middle linebackers Sam Cowart and Mo Lewis must contain the ball carriers early or see a lot of them throughout the game...Despite the 90.8 yards per game allowed in the regular season, the Raiders have been hurt on the ground. Rookie MLB Napoleon Harris is a transplanted college defensive end who gained experience while on the job. He should be ready for counters and misdirection runs to see what he learned through the season.
Pass: It's hard to determine if it was the Jets that led to Indy being completely out of sync passing or was it just the Colts fault. Quarterback Peyton Manning was off much of the night and New York took advantage. It might be a good idea for the corners to play bump and run with Brown and Rice to disrupt the timing. It could buy the extra second for the pass rush to collapse the pocket...How healthy is Oakland's secondary? Both starting corners, James Trapp and Charles Woodson (questionable), missed time from leg surgery. Woodson said there's no way he's sitting out. Third CB Phillip Buchannon was lost earlier in the season. The third corner will be responsible for New York's Santana Moss.
Special Teams: Kickoff returner Chad Morton had one kickoff return for the Jets to open the second half but made it count, going for 70 yards. They covered well on kickoffs, allowing 17 yards per return...No one questions Oakland's decision to draft Kicker Sebastian Janikowski and punter Shane Lechler early in the 2000 draft anymore. Both have been solid at what they do. Brown might have to pick up punt return duties, a job he held for years but isn't as threatening today.
The Pick: It was a close game these teams played in December, a game won by the Raiders, 26-20. Second half adjustments were the difference for Oakland in that game. This time around, the Jets are ready and spring a few surprises of their own in stinging the Raiders.
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