Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets - W
Offense
Run: Running back Edgerrin isn't the only James that will see the ball. Rookie free agent James Mungro likely will get a few touches. James might finally be fully recovered from his 2001 knee injury, as he posted 86 yards in only 15 carries in the season finale. Indy hopes he's ready to carry a load...New York drafted running back Lamont Jordan to spell relief for starter Curtis Martin, but Martin is back to shouldering most of the load. He completed his eighth consecutive 1,000-yard season thanks to a strong finish. Martin's production increased when he became healthy again.
Pass: Indy's passing game is simply described as Manning to Harrison. Quarterback Peyton Manning connected with Marvin Harrison for a record 143 completions. It's no longer a one-man show, as Reggie Wayne helps to keep the chains moving. Tight end Marcus Pollard, who has the speed to stretch the field, is a tough assignment for linebackers...Changing quarterbacks was the best decision Jets head coach Herman Edwards made all season. Chad Pennington has been on target with his speedy receivers, whether short or long. Keep an eye on the backs, as Jordan, Martin, and fullback Ritchie Anderson all have soft hands.
Defense
Run: It was a weakness before head coach Tony Dungy arrived and he might be a year or two away from solving it. The defensive line lacks a tackle that can stuff the run or occupy blockers. They rely on quickness, but the undersized D-line is neutralized if the O-linemen get their hands on them...Statistically, N.Y. isn't much better than the Colts at stopping the run (18th best to Indy's 20th), but they are swarming well lately. They switched to a 3-4 to let free agent acquisition Sam Cowart and the rest of the linebackers to make plays.
Pass: Don't let that NFL ranking fool you. The Colts 2nd best pass defense is from opponents abusing Indianapolis on the ground. The defense plays cover two most of the time. The aim is to prevent big plays through the air. That's a big responsibility to put on a secondary with two safeties with a combined three years of experience...Sometimes the best defense is a stingy offense. New York turned the ball over 19 times, fourth best in the league. Opponents will have to drive on the Jets defense to earn points. Cornerback Donnie Abraham is probable, which is good news for the Jets.
The Pick: A weakness of the Colts are physical teams, as losses came to Miami, the New York Giants, Washington, and Tennessee twice. Not that New York is in that class, but they do bring it. The Jets pound away until Indy wilts.
Atlanta at Green Bay - L
Offense
Run: While it's very important to keep a constant eye on quarterback Michael Vick, running back Warrick Dunn finally separated himself from rookie T.J. Duckett. In the games Dunn had 20 or more carries, he averaged 110 yards. The Falcons will call on Vick to run, but he's more dangerous when he gives up on a pass play and goes for the endzone...The Packers can't afford to get hurt along the offensive line. Right tackle Earl Dotson is questionable with a back injury. His backup, Kevin Barry, is a rookie and backs up left tackle as well. Second year Bill Ferrario backs up both guards and the center position. Running back Ahman Green doesn't need a big hole to break a run for a big gain.
Pass: Vick has an emerging group of receivers to throw to, most recently second year man Quentin McCord. He blew up the spot against Detroit, catching seven passes for 182 yards and a touch. Atlanta will stretch the field, evidenced by the 15-yard average held by leading receiver Brian Finneran. One note: Vick completed 54.9 percent of his passes in 2002... Quarterback Brett Favre is one of a few quarterbacks in the game that makes his teammates better. Not to say he's working with nothing. Receiver Donald Driver (questionable) became Favre's favorite target. Looks like trading a fourth round draft pick for Terry Glenn was more than worth it. Tight end Bubba Franks often is a prime target in the endzone.
Defense
Run: Medic! Atlanta is hurting defensively. Middle linebacker John Holececk is doubtful, putting more on leading tackler and fellow MLB Keith Brooking. The Falcons are one of a few teams playing a 3-4 defense, but don't have the players for the scheme. The defensive line is supposed to be anchored by 300-pounders. The average weight is around 280 pounds...G.B. will get a boost from DT Gilbert Brown. He's listed as probable after missing three of the last five games. In two of his three absentees, opponents gained over 100 yards. Speedy outside linebackers Nate Wayne and Na'il Diggs led the team in tackles.
Pass: The starting secondary will be in place for the Falcons but wearing extra bandages. Both cornerback Ray Buchanan and strong safety Gerald McBurrows are listed a probable for Saturday. Atlanta was only 16th in the league in pass defense, but did pick off 24 passes in 2002, third best in the NFL...It is a marked tied by the Packers, but were much better in pass defense, allowing 186.7 yards per game. Except for free safety Darren Sharper, no in the secondary has more than one Int. Sharper, the most valuable defender, is listed as questionable.
The Pick: The last team to knock off Green Bay at home during the playoffs is the Falcons. That was during their run to the Super Bowl. Atlanta isn't a good enough team to make it to the big dance and won't repeat the feat of the 1998 squad. The Packers edge the Falcons.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh - W
Offense
Run: This is a different William Green from the previous two meetings. The Browns first round draft pick is averaging over 100 yards in his last seven starts. Scouts said he was slow coming out of college but has broke touchdown run of 64 in the season finale. While his role has decreased, Jameel White is still a valuable change of pace back...Pittsburgh is waiting to see how healthy Jerome Bettis will be. For the second year in a row, The Bus was in the shop at the end of the season, leading to questions of how much longer he can stay on the road. Bettis is road ready, and he will take turns with Amos Zeroue, the sports car in Pittsburgh's garage.
Pass: How well can quarterback Kelly Holcomb orchestrate the aerial attack? When starter Tim Couch missed the first two games of the season, Holcomb averaged 262 yards, threw for five TDs at a 63 completion rate. With Couch out with a broken leg, the weight is on Holcomb. He does have a quality group of receivers to throw to. They must come through for Holcomb... It is a similar situation that Pittsburgh's Tommy Maddox is blessed with. Pro Bowler Hines Ward leads the team in receptions and touchdowns. Plaxico Burress is a big target down the field or for jump balls, and rookie Antwaan Randle El, who will be used all over the field, has big play potential whenever he touches the ball. If Maddox goes down, the offense shouldn't lose a step with Kordell Stewart.
Defense
Run: Defensive tackle Gerrard Warren has been disappointing for the Browns. But he isn't the only reason why Cleveland is 27th against the run, allowing 129.9 yards per game. The D has been without their best defender, linebacker Jamir Miller all season long. Free agent pick-up MLB Earl Holmes, a former Steeler, continued his solid play in 2002 with his new team... Two second-year players have been very valuable to the Steelers run defense. Nose tackle Casey Hampton holds down the middle occupying blockers. Linebacker Kendrell Bell rings up ball carriers. He gets a lot of help from James Farrior, the free agent acquisition from New York who successfully moved from outside to inside linebacker.
Pass: The biggest obstacle to overcome for Cleveland will be a lack of a pass rush. They dropped QBs only 28 times in '02. Their sack total reflects their ranking in the NFL. The front office missed with defensive end Courtney Brown as well. The former first pick overall has two sacks on the year. The Browns miss the pass rush Miller provided...It's a different story for the sack-happy Steelers who bagged QBs 50 times, good enough for third best in the NFL. Joey Porter and Jason Gildon tied for the team lead with nine sacks apiece. Five more players have at least four sacks, including strong safety Lethon Flowers who also intimidates with big hits in the secondary.
The Pick: Pittsburgh managed to squeak by the Browns in the two previous meetings during the regular season. The Steelers learn from the experiences and put away Cleveland.
N.Y. Giants at San Francisco - L
Offense
Run: Heavyweight running back Ron Dayne is a forgotten man in New York's backfield in close games. His carries go to the quicker Tiki Barber who's produced very well with the extra touches. During the four-game winning streak to close the season, Barber averaged 120 yards with the season finale as an exclamation point (203 yards vs. Philadelphia)...The goal at the beginning of the season was to get a better split of carries between starter Garrison Hearst and Kevan Barlow. The San Fran coaching staff made it happen and it paid off. The twosome combined for 360 carries for 1,647 yards and 12 touchdowns. Quarterback Jeff Garcia isn't afraid to take off on broken pass plays.
Pass: Giants quarterback Kerry Collins led the NFC in yardage with 4,073 yards, which is surprising considering the injuries the receiving corps suffered. But tight end Jeremy Shockey did more than picked up the slack. He moved the chains and complemented leading receiver Amani Toomer throughout the season Wide out Ron Dixon should be ready to go come Sunday...The biggest problem for the 49ers passing game was finding a consistent WR opposite Pro Bowler Terrell Owens. Tai Streets looks like what San Francisco was looking for. He ultimately replaced J.J. Stokes in the starting lineup. Hearst is third on the team in receptions so it's a good idea to watch him out of the backfield.
Defense
Run: It's hard to believe that N.Y. shored up their running game that finished ranked 16th in the NFL, averaging 114.4 yards a game. Yes they allowed 87.8 yards per game during the winning streak. But that was against the 26th, 19th, 13th, and 7th rushing offenses. Only holding Philadelphia to 65 yards deserves credit. Can they do it again is the question...The soft pass defense contributes to the run defense's numbers. Regardless of how physical a corner is, he shouldn't be third on the team in tackles (Jason Webster with 71). In five of six losses, opponents averaged 121.8 yards. San Francisco might have to creep strong safety Tony Parrish closer to the line for run support.
Pass: The decision to finally move corner Jason Sehorn from starter to the third corner was the best move for the defense. Youngsters Will Allen and Will Peterson have the quickness and speed to stay with just about any receiver. The team has only eleven picks and 37 sacks, but still managed to finish ninth in the league in pass defense...If New York had good depth at receiver, they could spread the field and go after rookie corner Mike Rumph. His coverage is suspect. LB Julian Peterson probably wants Giants TE Shockey all to himself. He held Kansas City's Tony Gonzalez to one reception in a regular season matchup.
The Pick: Momentum sometimes is the difference for teams. Right now, the Giants are the hottest team in the NFC and catch the 49ers off balance.
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