Randolph's Random Picks


Super Bowl XXXVII

Oakland vs Tampa Bay

Offense

Run: Returning to the formula that led to a 11-5 regular season record, the Raiders waited until the fourth quarter to lean on the running game. In a surprise, quarterback Rich Gannon led the team with 41 rushing yards and added a two-yard touchdown run off of a called pass play. Gannon made very good use of his feet all afternoon and should tie his cleats tight for Sunday He'll likely have to run some more. The big question is whether the offensive line will get a chance to run block. Oakland runs only if the ground game is very effective early or when they are sitting on a big lead late. Expect the massive blockers to get a hat on defenders early as a test to find out if they can open holes...It was more of a case of attitude over effect, as Tampa Bay grinded out 49 rushing yards. They averaged a pathetic 1.5 yards per carry, but the point was they ran the ball 32 times. After losing the last four games against Philadelphia, toughing out yards the hard way sent a message of standing up to the bully and refusing to back down. Over the course of the game, the Buccaneers made seven first downs on the ground, mostly in short yardage situations. That when they leaned on fullback Mike Alstott, who finished with 25 yards on 17 carries but ran for key first downs. T.B. recognizes that teams that defeated Oakland were able to run the ball well and should try to do the same.

Pass: Back to Gannon and his swift feet. It was a trait many forgot about considering the numbers he put up with his arm. But Gannon was at his best when he combined those two gifts to escape the pass rush and deliver from out of the pocket. His favorite target on the afternoon, wide out Tim Brown, was huge, hauling in nine passes for  73 yards. He played his heart out to earn his first ever chance to play in the Super Bowl. His counterpart, Jerry Rice, was equally important, leading the team in yards with 79. The youngest of the bunch, WR Jerry Porter, took a back seat with four catches for 52 yards and a touch, but could spring back to being a major factor against a stingy Tampa Bay secondary. The running backs always are options out of the backfield...Bucs quarterback Brad Johnson had never worn gloves in a game until the Conference Championship. It was an theory of head coach Jon Gruden that he brought up back in training camp. They tested it during the week before, applying the hypothesis on gameday. The test results came back: 20-of-33 for 259 yards and one interception. Conclusion: A complete success. Eight receivers caught at least one pass and Johnson had no problem with his accuracy, whether throwing short or long. The best method of attack might be over the middle, as consistently getting open on the Oakland corners could be difficult. Finding ways to get slot receivers opposite linebackers is a favorable approach.

Defense

Run: Oakland failed to slow down the power run or get a handle of Tennessee quarterback Steve McNair when he made use of his feet. Running back Eddie George ran through big holes in the Raiders defense often, finishing with 67 yards on 15 carries, an average of 4.5 yards per attempt. McNair averaged a ridiculous 10 yards per attempt, finishing with 53 yards on the ground. His romps include 12 yards on a third-and-nine and a 13-yard touchdown scamper. The defense doesn't have to worry about a mobile quarterback anymore, allowing them to focus on fullback Mike Alstott and running back Michael Pittman...With the exception the 20-yard touchdown run in the first quarter, the Bucs were stout, holding Philadelphia to 80 yards on the ground. Most importantly, they kept Philly quarterback Donovan McNabb from breaking out of the pocket for big gains. The linebackers not named Derrick Brooks, Al Singleton and Shelton Quarles, played fine games. The trio must stay on their toes. The infrequency Oakland runs could catch the front seven by surprise, leading to significant gains. This might be the biggest offensive line they face all year.

Pass: The Raiders have to clean up their play. Seven first downs for Tennessee were the result of Oakland penalties. Third down defense wasn't good either, allowing 50 percent of attempts. Corner back Charles Woodson was burned early on a double move as Tennessee believed neither corner was 100 percent. While they allowed a high completion percentage, the receivers gained minimal yards per catch. It will be a physical matchup in the secondary. Free safety Rod Woodson might have a few chances to pick a pass. Oakland can't give up long scoring drives similar to the ones Philadelphia gave up. Of the scoring drives by Tennessee, only one was over 70 yards...T.B. blitzed a lot and while they yielded only two sacks, it kept the pressure on. The play that secured the game was set up by corner Ronde Barber faking a blitz and dropping back into coverage. It resulted in a 92-yard interception return for a touchdown by Barber. He also forced a fumble earlier in the game, stripping McNabb while in the pocket. Coverage on the secondary's perimeter was stellar, as the starting receivers for Philadelphia combined for 74 yards on seven receptions. A concern is covering the middle, as they gave up a combined 131 yards to the slot receiver and the tight end. Don't be surprised if they double Oakland's Porter, as Tampa Bay has confidence in their corners to stay with the outside receivers.

Special Teams: There was one slip by T.B.'s coverage unit on the opening kickoff. They didn't repeat that mistake. In the history of the Buccaneers, the franchise has never returned a kickoff for a touchdown. Until now, they never reached the Super Bowl. That's one first crossed off the record books so they might as well go for another...A would-be blocked punt resulted in a Raiders field goal. Kicker Sebastian Janikowski should be ready as the offense could have problems completing drives against Tampa Bay's defense. Any big gains from the punt or kickoff return units would be a bonus.

Keys to the Game

Tampa Bay

No Parking: The defense might not be able to slow down the offensive drives, but keep the endzone off limits. Make them settle for field goals.
Addition by Subtraction: It more than just creating turnovers. A pick or fumble deep in opposing territory gives the offense good field position.
Holes in the Pocket: Get the quarterback. Gannon doesn't feel pressure so put him down. Also, get hands up and bat the ball down at the line.

Oakland

Catch Me if you Can: Score first. Not only is it easier to play with a lead, but it puts pressure on Tampa Bay's offense which isn't a prolific unit.
Like Aaliyah Said: ...in her song "Rock the Boat", work the middle, work the middle. Get Porter, tight end Doug Jolley and Garner involved.
Don't Turn Around: Keep the offensive players in front. Give up the catches underneath, but don't allow yards after the catch.

The Pick: It's a match up between Oakland's top offense in the league versus Tampa Bay's best defense in the league. But how have these teams improved in other areas? T.B's offense took significant steps forward over the course of the season while the Raiders still must outscore opponents. Buccaneers 31-24

Weekly Record:
Playoffs Record:6-4
Overall Record: 157-97-1

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