" Last year (1992) was the worst ever due to ‘natural’ catastrophe losses - over US$27 billion."

"Natural catastrophes in 1993 cost $50 billion in economic losses worldwide, compared to the record $62.5 billion in 1992. Floods accounted for 63% of these losses worldwide, and windstorms 31%."

"Property-catastrophe losses have already been enormous in recent years. In 1995, weather extremes caused $100 billion worth of damage with costs to insurance companies amounting to $9 billion."; "1995’s £120 billion of damage - and that was almost entirely caused by the kobe earthquake in japan."

"Economic losses from world-wide weather related disasters - droughts and hurricanes, floods and heat waves - reached an all time high of $60 billion in 1996."

There were .. "damages of $30 billion in 1997."; .. "damage was estimated at £20 billion."

"Natural disasters caused 50,000 deaths and damages costing more than $90 billion in 1998 - the second highest figure ever, the world’s largest reinsurers said tuesday. In a statement, munich re said this compared with 13,000 deaths and damages of $30 billion in 1997. Thanks to a combination of global warming and unusually heavy rain, 1998 was "a year with an exceptionally large number of natural catastrophes .. A key role may also have been played by the fact that in terms of the mean global temperature, 1998 was by far the warmest year since measurements were first taken worldwide around 150 years ago." the statement said."; "It’s been a year of natural catstrophes. Torrential rain, huge winds and earthquakes have caused 50,000 deaths and damage costing more than £60 billion. The economic cost of the tragedies around the world is the second highest in history. In 1997 there were 13,000 deaths and damage was estimated at £20 billion. The 1998 damage figure was exceeded by 1995’s £120 billion of damage - and that was almost entirely caused by the kobe earthquake in japan. According to german insurance giants munich re, global warming and unusually heavy rain turned 1998 into a "year with an exceptionally large number of catastrophes." And its been a dreadful decade. The past ten years has seen three times as many natural disasters compared to the sixties. The worst economic disaster in 1998 was the flooding of the yangtze river in china. The cost was put at £20 billion - but because so little of the property was insured its insurance value was put at less than £1 billion. The second most serious disaster in economic terms was hurricane georges, which brought severe floods to the caribbean, gulf of mexico and florida. It caused insured losses of around £2.5 billion - but the real economic cost was actually close to £10 billion. Forest fires aggravated by the exceptionally hot weather in the usa caused around £3 billion of damage and cost 130 people their lives. A severe ice storm in canada caused £2.5 billion damage - almost £1billion of which was covered by insurance."

"The Munich Reinsurance Company estimates that total global economic losses from natural disasters for the two years 1997 and 1998 reached US$120 000 million."

"The royal society of canada concludes that over the last two decades, natural hazards such as windstorms, floods and fires, have increased significantly. In the past twenty years an estimated 3 million people have been killed, over 800 million lives affected and C$300 billion lost as a result of natural disasters worldwide ..."

"Allowing for inflation, losses over the decade 1986-95 were eight times higher than in the 1960s (Munich Re 1997 and 1998)."

"Economic damage from weather-related disasters exceeded US$200 000 million during 1990-96, four times the total losses for the previous decade (Worldwatch Institute 1997)."

"And its been a dreadful decade. The past ten years has seen three times as many natural disasters compared to the sixties."

"The powerful el nino in 1982-83 inflicted an estimated £8.5 billion damage and claimed some 2,000 deaths."; "Forest fires are nothing new to indonesia. During 1982-83, fires swept through 3.6 million hectares of kalimantan. Smoke shrouded the area for more than four weeks, and the cost in lost timber stocks was estimated at more than $5 billion." - these losses were not insured. "In 1982 and 1983, el nino .. triggered forest fires in borneo that covered an area the size of belgium; typhoons were diverted onto new tracks, crashing into hawaii and tahiti; australia had its worst drought for a century and experienced massive wildlfires; california and the southern u.s. faced record storms and floods. Overall, the loss to the world economy from this one weather phenomena was put at more than $13 billion."

"The first hurricane to make landfall in the northeast US since 1985, Bob kills 18 people and causes damage exceeding US$1.5 billion .. With winds gusting at more than 100 mph, the storm "seemed to reserve some of its fiercest fury for the playgrounds of the rich and famous", hitting the Hamptons, beaching scores of yachts on Shelter Island, moving up through Martha’s Vineyard before blacking out Cape Cod."

"The second most serious disaster in economic terms was hurricane georges, which brought severe floods to the caribbean, gulf of mexico and florida. It caused insured losses of around £2.5 billion - but the real economic cost was actually close to £10 billion."

"Forest fires aggravated by the exceptionally hot weather in the usa caused around £3 billion of damage and cost 130 people their lives."

"A severe ice storm in canada caused £2.5 billion damage ..."

"A year ago (1997), more than a hundred died and thousands were left homeless when the river Oder flooded, devastating parts of Poland, Germany and the Czech Republic. Damage was estimated at 65 billion pounds."

"Earlier this year, Paul Epstein of the Harvard Medical School in the US totted up the bill for the bubble of unusual heat in the Pacific that began in 1997, and continued to the end of 1998. These included: widespread flooding in China, in which 230 million people lost their homes; delays to the monsoon in India, and severe flooding in Bangladesh; flooding in Texas, followed by drought and a heatwave with significant agricultural damage and human deaths; Hurricane Mitch, which dumped up to six feet of rain, destroyed up to 95 per cent of the crops and killed more than 11,000 in the Central American isthmus; a severe cold wave in Europe in October 1998 and a crippling ice storm in December in the southern US; and drought and prolonged forest fires in Indonesia, Brazil, Central America, Florida, floods in California and Mexico. In the first 11 months of 1998, weather-related losses totalled $89 billion, along with 32,000 deaths and 300 million displaced from their homes, according to the Epstein report, more than all the combined losses in the 1980s. In China, 3,700 died, 233 million were forced to leave their homes and losses were put at $30 billion."; "El Nino is estimated to have cost 21,000 lives in 1998 .."; "El Nino, the cyclic Pacific heatwave that clocked up more than $100 billion of damage to the world in 1998, has not finished yet."

If the 1998 el nino caused havoc around the world then its counterpart, la nina, turned out to be almost as bad. It triggered off hurricane mitch in honduras, nicaragua and el salvador, "Hurricane mitch appears to have brought the first eco-disaster, generated by freak storms from the la nina climatic shift, the daughter of the more celebrated el nino. The fear is now that more and worse storms could lie in the future." It caused storms which battered orissa in india. And it produced cyclone eline which flooded large parts of south-east africa, "Like other forecasters, mark jury says that the root cause of the floods (in mozambique) was la nina - a cold water oscillation in the equatorial pacific - which is now at full force."

Hurricane mitch devastated virtually the whole of honduras as well as large parts of nicaragua and el salvador, "Hurricane Mitch killed more people than any storm in the western world for 200 years. It was the fourth fiercest hurricane in the Caribbean this century."; .. "hurricane mitch hit central america in 1998, dumped metres of water on steep hillsides, and started landslides in which more than 10,000 perished."; "Hurricane mitch, which dumped up to six feet of rain, destroyed up to 95 per cent of the crops and killed more than 11,000 in the Central American isthmus ..."; "For example, in October 1998, Hurricane Mitch slammed into Central America and stalled for more than a week. Nightmarish mudslides obliterated entire villages; 10,000 people died; half the population of Honduras was displaced and the country lost 95 percent of its crops. Global warming and the more destructive storms associated with it may explain why Mitch was the fourth strongest hurricane to enter the Caribbean this century, but much of the damage was caused by deforestation. If forests had been gripping the soil on those hills, fewer villages would have been buried in mudslides."

"Over 10 000 people died in eastern India as the second tropical cyclone in two weeks struck Orissa state in the final days of October 1999. With winds reaching 260 km an hour, the storm was classed as a supercyclone. It created the "worst flooding in 100 years" according to Asim Kumar Vaishnav, chief adminstrator of the state capital." The mirror believed that huge numbers were killed by one of the worst storms ever recorded .. "the 10,000 or more people killed in the october cyclone, the worst recorded in meteorological history."

Millions of people have been made homeless and thousands may have died as a result of torrential rain leading to the flooding of the limpopo and save rivers in mozambique, "In mozambique 300,000 people are left homeless and hundreds have been killed in devastating floods."; "Disaster struck after cyclone eline swept in in the wake of devastating torrential rains. The flooding has hit neighbouring zimbabwe where 250,000 people were forced to flee raging waters. On sunday, zimbabwe was forced to release billions of gallons of water from its overflowing kariba dam. Tragically the water is heading for doomed mozambique."; One aid worker estimated that, "Two million people have been affected, 900,000 are in severe need. They’re either trapped or left with nothing."; "The official death count in the wake of cyclone eline is 47." "Last month he (mugabe of zimbabwe) toured the south-east of his country devastated by cyclone eline, which killed 60 people and made 250,000 homeless."

It is not known whether the storms which devastated coastal areas of venezuela were also produced by la nina, "In Venezuela, an estimated 30 000 people were killed by mudslides and flash floods in mid-December 1999 as thousands of homes in mountainside shanty towns were swept away. Civil defense chief Angel Rangel said that the problem "was not so much the rain but the type of country on which it fell. In Caracas it rains for one hour and slums slide down the mountain."; .. "the catstrophic rains that swept as many as 20,000 to their deaths in venezuela .."

"In france, storms cause 90 fatalities, destroy 270 million Trees and trigger £7.5 billion worth of damage."; .. "the 200km per hour winds that battered france .."

"The worst weather catastrophes weighed in with Cyclone Iniki in 1992, costing $1.4bn, Hurricane Hugo in 1989 at $5.8bn, the Mississippi floods in 1993 at £15.6bn, and the number one most expensive disaster, Hurricane Andrew in 1992, costing $20bn. And this year is bringing in a record number of hurricanes, including the all-time third most expensive one, Hurricane Opal, which caused $1.8bn damages in Florida alone."

"In January of 1995, Europe was devastated by yet another "hundred year" flood its second in 15 months. The floods caused the evacuation of 250,000 people in Holland, and cost billions of US dollars in damages. According to Dutch climate expert Pier Vellinga, though the floods were not proof of climate change, they were consistent with global circulation models (GCMs) and with current CO2 concentrations. He said, "I would be surprised if something like this did not happen.""

"Natural disasters caused .. 13,000 deaths and damages of $30 billion in 1997."

"Natural disasters caused 50,000 deaths .. in 1998 - the second highest figure ever, the world’s largest reinsurers said tuesday."; "Last year, the warmest on record, was the worst year for climate related disasters. According to red cross calculations, 57, 513 people died and 335 million people lost their homes, or their livelihoods, or their crops, or their livestock, or their children, or their hopes."

Although the climate disasters highlighted above are only samples of what has been happening over the last decade or so, it should be transparent that they have caused a considerable amount of economic damage and a huge death toll around the world. In december 1999 one disaster relief expert argued that the climate is killing more people than wars. It was transparently obvious from greenpeace’s ‘Climate Time-Bomb’ that climate disasters were causing more homelessness than wars so it is not surprising to come across such a conclusion, "Maybe it is the decade of heightening awareness to the fact that natural disasters actually kill far more people than wars do, says Peter Walker of the Red Cross."

As scientific director of greenpeace international’s climate campaign in the early 1990s, jeremy leggett was trying to popularize the threat posed by global burning at a time when global temperatures had risen by a mere half a degree over the previous century. Such a small rise was not going to appear as much of a threat to the vast majority of people without a degree in Earth sciences. His idea for dramatizing the threat posed by global burning was to focus on climatic disasters costing the global insurance industry more than one billion dollars - see ‘The Climate Time-Bomb’. He argued there were no such insurance losses before 1987, "For the 20 year period up to October 1987, there had been no catastrophes causing losses of more than a billion dollars (in constant 1992 dollars)." He then suggested that since 1987 there have been about 15 climate disasters, "In the past five years, (1989-1994) there have been fifteen ‘billion dollar’ climate-related natural disasters ..."

This list of billion dollar climate insurance disasters has been compiled from a number of publications - the list is in chronological order:-

"An unnamed storm (in Europe) in October 1987 had caused $2.5 billion of insured losses."

"Hurricane Hugo of 1989, which caused $5.8 billion of insured losses, was the most expensive disaster in US history."; "Hurricane hugo in 1989 caused $8billion of damage when it struck southern carolina .."

In Europe in January 1990 .. "the insurance bill for Windstorm Daria had been $4.6 billion."

Windstorm Herta $1.3 billion."

Windstorm Vivian $3.2 billion."

Windstorm Wibke $1.3 billion."; The three storms which hit europe in quick succession at the beginning of 1990 .. "piled up $5.8 billion in losses."

"Seventh ‘billion-dollar’ natural catastrophe in three years. .. a windstorm in Colorado .. causes more than a billion dollars of insured losses."

"Typhoon Mireille, the eighth billion-dollar storm since 1987, hits Japan. On 27 September, Mireille becomes the sixth strongest in the Japan Meteorological Agency’s records. It damages 1.6% of all Japanese households, draining $2.21 billion from the Japanese insurance industry’s property-catastrophe reserve system ..."

"Californian wildfire: ninth billion-dollar catastrophe in four years. In the fifth year of the Californian drought, a major bushfire sweeps through the Oakland Hills. The insurance price tag exceeds $1.7 billion, and the economic losses are around twice that. It is the third biggest fire in US history ..."

"(Hurricane) Andrew reaches storm intensity on August 17th and crashes into the Bahamas on August 23rd. The hurricane continues west and runs into Florida on the morning of August 24th. .. Andrew kills 23 people and costs $20 billion in total economic losses. Insured losses hit a new world record of $16.5 billion, and a storm track 20 miles north would have made it at least $50 billion worse. It leaves 250,000 temporary homeless .. Andrew is the third most intense hurricane to hit land in the US this century."; "Between 1970 and 1992, the insurance industry had taken $10.8 billion in premiums in Florida. In the few hours it took Hurricane Andrew to pass across the state in August 1992, the industry lost all that and almost $6 billion besides."; "The Florida emergency services .. estimated property damage at between $15-20 billion making this the most expensive storm in US history. The US air force base at Homestead was effectively destroyed."; "Hurricane andrew in 1992 .. caused over $20 billion of damage."; Hurricane Andrew inflicted a considerable level of damage on the road/car/oil industries, "To date, the irony of the potential link between fossil fuel related greenhouse gas emissions and some of the biggest losses incurred during Hurricane Andrew has occurred to surprisingly few in the insurance industry, and seemingly nobody in the oil industry. As Andrew passed over the Gulf of Mexico, it toppled 43 oil rigs and left 125 leaning, damaged 393 pipelines, and set 5 rigs adrift. The total bill for the industry and its insurers came to $200 million."

Less than a week after hurricane andrew and hurricane iniki hits hawaii, "With insured losses of $1.6 billion, Cyclone Iniki becomes the tenth "billion dollar windstorm" for the insurance industry within five years. It was the strongest hurricane to affect Hawaii since the Weather Service opened in world war II."

"US storm of the century causes havoc from Canada to Cuba. Total insured losses reach $1.6 billion and total costs were over $6 billion. The "snowicane" kills 270 people ..." "In fact, insurance losses alone would eventually reach $1.6 billion, making it the twelfth climate-related billion-dollar disaster for insurers since 1987."

"The damage bill passes the $10 billion mark."; In terms of insurance costs, "$1.0 billion." William james burroughs, a global burning sceptic, retorts that .. "the massive mississippi floods of june 1993, the global figure estimated the damage at $15 billion. But the exposure of the insurance companies was much smaller, being just under $1 billion."

"South California wildfires $1.0 billion."; "In California, meanwhile, two weeks of briush fires were in the process of clocking up another ‘billion-dollar cat’ for the insurance industry. Twenty-six forestorms burned some 800 square kilomtres from the mexican border to los angeles." .. "the fourteenth weather-related ‘billion-dollar cat’ for insurers since 1987."

"Germany - un-named storms - more than $2.0 billion." Leggett doesn’t mention this billion dollar disaster in his book ‘The Carbon Wars’.

Whilst leggett’s ‘Climate Time Bomb’ was a considerable political success it did have a number of intellectual failings. Although leggett has written many articles on climate disasters, he’s never bothered to provide a consistent list of these disasters. For someone who spent eight years creating hard-hitting sound bites for greenpeace this is unexpected. Firstly, the numbering of the disasters never matches up from one publication to the next. In one publication he claims there have been ‘w’ disasters over the last ‘x’ years, whilst in the next it is ‘y’ disasters over ‘z’ years. Secondly, it is far from clear how many disasters there have been. In one article leggett states here have been more than 15 one billion dollar insurance disasters - if natural and industrial accidents, such as the piper alpha disaster, are taken into account. In another article the number then drops to 12, "Between 1966 and 1986 no one natural catastrophe anywhere on earth cost insurers more than one billion US dollars. Between 1987 and today no less than 12 did, costing insurers nearly $50 billion." before increasing to 16, "Considering only events which have involved insured losses of over a billion 1992 US dollars, 1966 to 1987 was a period which - although far from catastrophe-free - had no catastrophes which topped the billion dollar. But in the period from 1987 through the first quarter of 1993, there have been no less than 16 ..." Thirdly, it is far from clear which disasters cost more than one billion dollars.

"And this year is bringing in a record number of hurricanes, including the all-time third most expensive one, Hurricane Opal, which caused $1.8bn damages in Florida alone."

Hurricane fran .. "hit the beach at cape fear in the carolinas on september 5th .. Thankfully, fran was only category 3 at the time, but she caused damage to thousands of homes in the carolinas, virginia, maryland, pennsylvania and ohio. The us property claims services division made an initial estimate of $1.6 billion in insured losses, making fran the 10th biggest weather-related loss ever, and bringing the number of all time billion-dollar weather cats to 20. Fifteen of these had now been since 1987."

"The year (1998) saw severe floods and cyclones such as hurricane georges in the caribbean and the gulf of mexico, which, with its insured losses of $3.3 billion, was the third most expensive in u.s. insurance history and the largest insurance loss of the year, munich re said.""; "The second most serious disaster in economic terms was hurricane georges, which brought severe floods to the caribbean, gulf of mexico and florida. It caused insured losses of around £2.5 billion - but the real economic cost was actually close to £10 billion."

"A severe ice storm in canada caused £2.5 billion damage - almost £1billion of which was overed by insurance."

.. "september’s $3.3 billion hurricane mitch, another dodged bullet for florida in that it caught only the florida keys." It ought to be pointed out that september mitch is not the same as october’s mitch which devastated honduras.

.. "terrible summer floods along china’s yangtze river."

Some of the criticisms levelled at leggett’s ‘The Climate Time Bomb’ also apply to ‘The Carbon War’. It was hoped that one of the minor benefits of his new book would be to find a precise list of the billion dollar insurance disasters. But this was not to be. The disaster that leggett had originally regarded as the fifteenth disaster was not mentioned in ‘The Carbon Wars’. He then lapses into indifference by failing to highlight the following four events, "Four more events joined the list of billion dollar catastrophes: three storms in america, and terrible summer floods along china’s yangtze river. One of the american storms was september’s $3.3 billion hurricane mitch .." This is frustrating. How is it possible to use such handy propaganda when it’s surrounded by such confusions? Perhaps the most significant difference between leggett’s early work and his most recent one is that he no longer argues there were no billion dollar climate disasters before 1987, "Between 1966 and 1986 no one natural catastrophe anywhere on earth cost insurers more than one billion US dollars." He now argues, "Fifteen of these (20 disasters) had now been since 1987" implying the rest occurred before 1987.

"In britain drought caused by climate change cost the insurance industry £500 million in claims in 1990 and 1991."

"Munich re registered 577 natural catstrophes worldwide. Among these, flooding in january and february in north-west europe had seen 240,000 people evacuated in the netherlands just 13 months after the xmas floods of 1995. These floods involved $3.5 billion in economic losses and $900 million in insured losses. Swiss re reported that if dykes on the rhine and meuse had been breached, the economic losses would have exceeded $50 billion."

"Insurance firms are braced for a massive £500 million payout after the easter floods. And some experts warn the final bill could be three times as high and send premiums soaring. The worst floods for 100 years caused havoc in the midlands and east anglia, leaving five dead and forcing thousands to flee their homes. Claims negotiator jeffrey salmon fears the early estimates could be "drastically out"."

"Another hurricane, october’s mitch, killed over 10,000 in central america, devastated the entire economy of honduras, but clocked less than $150 million in insured losses."

"In 1995, weather extremes caused $100 billion worth of damage with costs to insurance companies amounting to $9 billion."; "Insured losses of just under $16 billion were high, but lower than the record year of 1992’s $28 billion and 1994’s $17 billion. Munich re registered 577 natural catstrophes worldwide. Among these, flooding in january and february in north-west europe had seen 240,000 people evacuated in the netherlands just 13 months after the xmas floods of 1995. These floods involved $3.5 billion in economic losses and $900 million in insured losses. Swiss re reported that if dykes on the rhine and meuse had been breached, the economic losses would have exceeded $50 billion."

"The record showed that nature had been kind to the global insurance industry in 1996. The industry suffered $9 billion in losses in 1996, well below the figures for 1995 and 1994."

"The global insurance industry paid out US$4,500 million for disaster-related damage in 1997 ..."

"The rapid warming of the past 25 years is now greater than any time since temperatures were measured, and we have seen the largest recorded jump in the global concentration of carbon dioxide, the main global warming gas - much attributable to the forest fires that accompanied El Nino. Weather-related damage like storms cost insurance companies $92bn (£57bn) in 1998."; "The hottest year ever coincided with the costliest year ever for insured losses from weather-related catstrophes. The catalogue of storms, floods, droughts and fires around the world in 1998 exceeded all the weather-related losses of the 1980s."

"Between 1970 and 1985, total insured losses from natural and man-made catastrophes had varied between $2 billion and $6 billion (at 1991 prices)."

"Between 1970 and 1992, insurance companies took more than $10 billion in premiums for property insurance in Florida. On 24th August 1992, within the few hours Hurricane Andrew took to pass over the state, they lost all of that, and another $6.5 billion besides. In the past six years the insurance industry has been hit by a succession of huge claims following devastating tropical hurricanes.

Cyclone Iniki, the most powerful storm to hit Hawaii this century."

Since 1987 the world’s insurance industry has suffered huge financial losses as a result of claims for asbestos-related health problems, natural disasters, industrial accidents, and climate disasters, etc. The losses caused by climate disasters have been the most substantial, "Since 1987 insurance companies have had to pay more than $50 billion in meeting claims following a string of severe storms and other disasters."

Climatic disasters have inflicted severe losses on the lloyd’s insurance market. Despite the fact that global burning has hardly started to bite, it has already been close to bringing down one of the world's biggest financial institutions. Since 1986 lloyd's accounts have been as follows:-

The poor not only suffer from loss of property as a result of climatic damage they are not insured to enable them to recover from the disaster, "Overall, the poor are the most likely to suffer from major disasters and the least likely to be insured against loss. In 1997, Asia suffered 33 per cent of the world's catastrophic events, 67 per cent of the casualties and 28 per cent of the economic losses. However, only 0.2 per cent of those losses were covered by insurance policies. The global insurance industry paid out US$4 500 million for disaster-related damage in 1997, and 66 per cent of the claims were made in the United States (Munich Re 1998). Thus insured losses and repayments are concentrated mainly in the richer industrialized countries."

The previous sections suggest that the rise in global temperatures has produced an increase in the frequency and intensity of climatic disasters. This section highlights the advocates and critics of this hypothesis.

"Hurricanes of record strength are hitting the Pacific. Anomalously intense droughts have struck southern Africa, northern Brazil, California, SE England and other places. Unexplained inundations have caused ruinous flooding in the USA, Pakistan, China and elsewhere. Forest fires of unusual size and destruction have hit the boreal forest latitudes, especially in Siberia. Meanwhile, billion dollar wildfires have hit urban areas in California. The list is becoming suspiciously long."

"But recent hurricanes have been some of the strongest on record. Hurricane andrew in 1992 was rated five out of five on the international scale of storm intensity with winds of 200 mph and caused over $20 billion of damage. Hurricane hugo in 1989 caused $8billion of damage when it struck southern carolina, and was rated four out of five. Hurricane gilbert in 1988 devastated jamaica, the yucatan peninsula in central america and the gulf of mexico with a five out of five rating. It left 200 dead and eight hundred thousand homeless."

One disaster relief expert for the red cross argues that the climate is killing more people than wars, "Maybe it is the decade of heightening awareness to the fact that natural disasters actually kill far more people than wars do, says Peter Walker of the Red Cross." What he seems to be implying is that the increase in storm fatalities is a measure of the increase in the ferocity and intensity of storms.

In february 2000 hulme made one of the most dramatic announcements so far about global burning. He insisted not merely that there has been a rise in global temperatures nor merely that humans are responsible for this rise in global temperatures, but that the increase in global temperatures is causing an increase in the frequency and intensity of storms around the world. Humans are responsible for the spate of storms that have been hitting many countries around the world over the last decade or so, "With wearied resignation, they (meteorologists) are now admitting what was long suspected - that global warming must be accepted unambiguously as the trigger for increasingly unstable weather fronts, storms, melting glaciers and rising seas, "We can no longer say we are still unsure whether extreme weather events are caused by global warming or not," says mike hulme of the climate research unit."

There are commentators who dismiss speculation about increasing climatic disruption.

Not surprisingly, gregg easterbrook dismisses the idea that storms are becoming more intense, "The prospect that a warming world will be one of disastrous storms has caught on in popular culture. So far this notion is unsupported by research. So far research suggests that warm years tend to produce more storms of low intensity, cool years fewer storms of higher intensity." It ought to be pointed out that easterbrook’s book was completed in the early 1990s before the publication of greenpeace’s notebook listing the increasing number of climatic disasters since the late 1980s - although whether this would have made any difference is doubtful.

William james burroughs dismissed the idea of increasing climatic disruption. Writing just before the onset of the 1997-98 el nino he stated, "Overall, there is no clear evidence that extreme weather events, or climate variability, has increased, in a global sense, during the twentieth century."; .. "there is little evidence that the weather is becoming more extreme."; .. "it is clear there is no trend in the number or intensity of hurricanes in the tropical atlantic. These observations (from satellites and military missions) clearly show there has been a marked decline in activity in general, and in the incidence of intense hurricanes in particular during the last 50 years." It could be true statistically that there has been no increase in extreme weather events over the last century - despite the spate of disasters which have taken place since 1987. This is similar to what has happened as far as the rise in global temperatures over the last century: the tiny rise in global temperatures since 1880 disguises the significant rise in global temperatures which has taken place over the last couple of decades. What this issue boils down to is whether the sudden rise in climatic disasters and global temperatures since 1975 is the start of a new climatic trend or just a temporary upsurge.

Gray believes that although there has been a dramatic increase in the ferocity of storms since 1994 this has nothing to do with global burning but with the regular cycle of hurricane activities produced by oceanic circulation, "Reliable records for storms that hit the continental u.s. go back to 1900. They show that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the north atlantic appear to run in cycles: 30-40 years of high activity followed by a similar period of calm. From the 1960s to 1994, storm numbers were lower than average. Then 19 occurred in the summer and autumn of 1995 alone, the largest number since the 21 recorded in 1933. "In the next 2-3 decades, we’re going to see hurricane damage like we’ve never seen," says william gray of colorado state university in fort collins, an expert in forecasting hurricane trends. "These last four years have been the most active four years on the record," Gray says. Gray believes the driving force behind these temperature shifts is the ocean’s global circulation, driven by cold, dense surface waters sinking to the ocean bottom near Greenland. Large ice flows in the late 1960s made that cold water less salty, and thus less heavy, slowing its push on the global ‘conveyor belt’ and cooling the north atlantic. He says the circulation changed again about 1994, leading to a warmer ocean and the intense storm season that followed. One reason hurricane prediction is so difficult is that other climate oscillations such as el nino affect different parts of the world differently. During an el nino, when warm surface waters appear in the east pacific, the number of atlantic storms stays low because of changes in high altitude winds. (El ninos produce strong winds in the stratosphere which blow away the tops of the atlantic hurricanes preventing them from forming)."