PART TWO: THE EARTH’S CONTRIBUTION TO THE DESTABILIZATION OF THE CLIMATE |
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Not every component of the Earth's geophysiology contributes to the stabilization of the climate. On the contrary, some factors destabilize the climate - pushing it in the direction of either a runaway global burning or a runaway global freezing disaster. However, so far the Earth’s climate has never veered off into either of these extremes. The first section looks at the factors contributing to a runaway global burning disaster whilst the second section looks at the factors contributing to a runaway global freezing disaster. The contribution played by humans in boosting global temperatures is not explored in this work. ONE: EXACERBATING GLOBAL WARMING.2.1.1.1: The Scale of Photosynthesis from 10C Upwards.
2.1.1.1.1: The Decrease in the Scale of Forests.
As global temperatures rise, the ice sheets
on the amero-euro-asian continents retreat and there is a rise in the
level of the Earth’s oceans. Forests reappear behind the retreating ice
sheets but disappear in the tropics when the continental shelves are inundated
by the oceans. The net result is a decline in the scale of the Earth’s
Forest cover which boosts global warming. 2.1.1.1.2: The Decrease in Algal Photosynthesis.
As the Earth’s temperature rises there is an increase
in oceanic stratification. This reduces the nutrients reaching marine
Algae and thus decreases marine Photosynthesis. This gives a number
of spiralling boosts to global temperatures.
* Firstly, the decrease in marine Photosynthesis
reduces the amount of Carbon extracted from the atmosphere - thereby boosting
global warming.
* Secondly, the decrease in the profusion of marine Algae reduces the release of dimethyl sulphide which decreases marine cloud cover and thus boosts global temperatures.
* Thirdly, the decrease in cloud cover reduces the rain falling on the land thereby reducing terrestrial Photosynthesis which allows the accumulation of Carbon in the atmosphere, "Without these organisms, marine stratus clouds are unlikely to form with the result that rain, gathered from the oceans and vital to life on land, would begin to fail."
* Fourthly, the decrease in marine Algae reduces emissions of dimethyl sulphide thereby decreasing sulphur’s fertilization of terrestrial Phytomass. All of these factors exacerbate global warming. 2.1.1.2: The Rate of Photosynthesis above 18C.
When global temperatures rise above 18C many of the Earth’s terrestrial Photosynthesizers start to die off and the rate of Photosynthesis begins to decline. This boosts the destabilization of the climate encouraging the climate to accelerate out of control. 2.1.1.3: The Destruction of Coral Reefs.
Coral Reefs play an important role in extracting Carbon from the oceans and, ultimately, the atmosphere. This boosts global cooling. However, the warming of the oceans destroys Coral Reefs. Whilst many terrestrial Plants begin to die off when global temperatures rise to 18C, coral Reefs are damaged at much lower temperatures. There is widespread evidence that Coral Reefs have already started dying off. The reduction in the Photosynthesis carried out by Coral Reefs exacerbates global warming. Even worse is that if Coral Reefs release their stores of Carbon back into the atmosphere this would further increase global warming. The warmer the oceans, the greater the destruction of Coral Reefs, the greater the impetus to global warming, "Australian marine scientist, clive wilkinson, from the Australian Institute of Marine Science in townsville, says climate change and contamination will destroy one-third of the world’s Coral Reefs within 20 years and two-thirds within 40 years. Wilkinson believes that reefs in the philippines, thailand, malaysia, java, the caribbean, east africa and florida will be gone within the twenty year period. Coral experts believe that coral reefs may be deteriorating faster than the world’s tropical Forests."; "Let us not understate this (coral bleaching). We are dealing with the prospect of slight increases in temperature killing, en masse, the very living foundations of tropical paradise on this planet." 2.1.1.4: Photosynthesizers Extract Water Vapour and Reduce Cloud Cover.
It has been suggested that an increase in global warming would lead to more rainfall. However, there are scientists who believe that global warming would lead to a drier world because Plants would extract more water from the atmosphere. This would reduce the greenhouse effect of water vapour but it would also reduce the scale of clouds and thus further boost global warming, "According to results published yesterday, Plants may respond to extra Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by conserving water. This would create a drier world, with fewer clouds and less rainfall, scientists said yesterday. Although the rainfall cycle depends on evaporation of seas and lakes, huge quantities of water are transpired through the leaves of Plants. (In the experiments Carbon rich atmospheres produced a reduction in) the transpiration of water by 9%. The implication is that there would be less water for cloud formation and a reduction of rainfall by 6%. This was the reverse of computer models, which suggested a warmer, wetter world."; "Plant physiological effects of CO2 on climate. Reduction in stomatal conductance as CO2 concentration increases could significantly enhance the surface warming over terrestrial areas as a consequence of reductions in evapotranspiration and increases in soil moisture." 2.1.1.5: The Climatic Damage Inflicted on Photosynthesis.
Various climatic phenomena act as a positive feedback factor boosting global warming. 2.1.1.5.1: The Damage to Photosynthesis caused by Storms.
Storms damage Phytomass and thus reduces Photosynthesis which boosts global warming. 2.1.1.5.2: The Damage to Photosynthesis caused by Flooding.
Flooding could ruin Soils thereby boosting global warming. 2.1.1.5.3: The Damage to Photosynthesis caused by Heat Stress.
In a period of rising temperatures, Forests migrate to survive. However, if global warming happens too quickly they cannot move quickly enough to survive, "The worst sufferers (from global warming) are likely to be Trees. Climatic limits are estimated to shift by 125-185 miles per degreeC of warming, or 60 miles per decade under the ipcc business as usual scenario. A Forest can shift at half a mile per year, 5 miles per decade, maximum .. Faster than that and it will die .. " 2.1.1.5.4: The Damage to Photosynthesis caused by Droughts.
The warmer the Earth becomes, the greater the likelihood of droughts - even if there is an overall increase in global rainfall. This could damage Phytomass further boosting global warming. 2.1.1.5.5: The Damage to Photosynthesis caused by Forest Fires.
Some of the climatic effects of Forest fires have been noted above. Forest fires reduce the Earth's Photosynthetic capacity thereby stimulating global warming. 2.1.1.5.6: Unknown Phenomena.
The phenomena outlined above are well known but lovelock warns that a spiralling global warming could generate climatic phenomena which have not been seen before and which could provoke even greater warming, "What I hope will happen is that in between the more disastrous of the surprises soon to come, great storms and droughts and atmospheric phenomena never before seen, there will be time to think and the will to react." The peculiar behaviour of el nino during the 1990s seems to fit this speculation. 2.1.2.1: Phytomass.
2.1.2.1.1: The Release of Carbon by Phytomass Respiration.
A rise in global temperatures is likely to increase the respiration of terrestrial Phytomass thereby boosting the greenhouse effect. Even more worrying is that Phytomass respiration could release more Carbon than is absorbed through Photosynthesis, "The probability is high that a warming will stimulate the respiration of terrestrial ecosystems, including the decay of organic matter in soils, sufficiently to exceed any net primary production." Woodwell calculates that respiration will exceed even the fertilization effect (i.e. the increase in Phytomass caused by higher levels of atmospheric Carbon), "The increase in respiration from (global) warming will dominate all other biotic effects and accelerate rates of release of CO2 and CH4 from the respiration of plants and the decay of organic matter in soils." The destabilization of the climate caused by respiration could be a powerful factor provoking runaway rising temperatures. 2.1.2.1.2: The Release of Water by Phytomass Respiration.
As global temperatures rise, the increase in respiration releases more water vapour, thereby boosting the greenhouse effect. The scale of respiration even for Grasses, let alone Forests, is colossal, "Plants also affect the weather. They evaporate water from their leaves by opening or closing tiny sphincter-like pores called stomata. This loss of water is called transpiration and it keeps the plant cool and draws up liquids and salt through the plant. But the quantities of water are staggering. An acre of grass between may and july transpires over 500 tons of water." 2.1.2.1.3: Forest Fires.
The warmer the climate, the greater the number and scale of Forest fires, the greater the release of greenhouse gases, the greater the boost to global warming - a positive feedback factor destabilizing the climate, "Siberia’s Forests are also being depleted by fires .. While most Forest fires are now caused by humans, they may well be overtaken by wildfires as global warming starts to bite - the Forests could gradually dry out and become vulnerable to fires. Much more drastic will be the full force of global warming. Climatologists estimate that a full 40% of boreal Forests, perhaps more, could disappear within the foreseeable future. This would release 1.5-3 billion tons of Carbon per year or as much as is being emitted from tropical deforestation today and 20-40% of all current emissions of CO2.".Greenpeace has drawn up a list of the major Forest fires which occurred during the 1990s. 2.1.2.1.4: The Thawing of Peatbogs and the Release of Methane.
A rise in global temperatures could release some of the vast deposits of methane currently 'stored' in the frozen tundras (Peatbogs) of siberia, canada and alaska, "About 27% of the world's Carbon store is locked up in the peat bogs of the tundra and the boreal forests." The warmer the Planet becomes, the greater the release of Carbon, the bigger the boost to the greenhouse effect. Klinger believes that Peatbogs are more important than Forests for determining the concentration of atmospheric Carbon, "Alterations in the extent of peat bogs would change the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by up to 20%."; "To the north of the tundra stretch the great frozen wastes of permanent snow and ice caps. This snow desert is to be found in alaska, canada, greenland and the ussr. Methane lays trapped beneath its surface. If global warming increases, this expanse of permanently frozen land would warm too. The snows and ice would melt. And what was a snowy waste could become a waterlogged tundra .. and that this would be an additional source of methane gas emissions into the atmosphere." 2.1.2.1.5: The Thawing of Methane Deposits on Ocean Beds.
An increase in global temperatures could also release methane locked up in ice crystals on the seabed, "There are large stores of methane trapped inside ice structures in sediments on ocean floors." It has been argued that this .. "may already be the most important source of methane in the atmosphere. Some 150 million tonnes a year is one guestimate." The warmer the oceans, the greater the release of Carbon, the bigger the boost to the greenhouse effect. 2.1.2.1.6: The Drying out of Wetlands.
"Release of carbon from drying out of high latitude wetlands. Whilst the rate of release is uncertain the ultimate volume of carbon may be quite large as there are 450 GtC stored in these systems." 2.1.2.1.7: Wetter Soils Release Nitrous Oxide.
"Increased release of nitrous oxide from warmer, wetter soils." 2.1.2.1.8: The Decline in the Photosynthetic Absorption of Water Vapour.
When global temperatures rise this decreases the scale of Forest Photosynthesis. Less water vapour is extracted from the atmosphere which bolsters global warming. 2.1.2.1.9: Forests Boost Tropospheric Ozone.
When global temperatures rise some Trees release terpenes which create tropospheric ozone, a greenhouse gas, "Terpenes react with other pollutants to produce ozone, a toxic form of oxygen which is also associated with traffic exhausts. As temperatures rise because of the greenhouse effect, pines can be expected to emit more and more terpenes." This is a positive feedback factor on the climate. 2.1.2.2: Micro-organisms.
2.1.2.2.1: Micro-organisms’ Decomposition of Phytomass/Biomass.
Decomposers and fermenters living in soils break down organic matter and release Methane into the atmosphere, "On a global scale, more than 50% of methane released into the atmosphere comes from the soil. The principal origin of this is microbial degradation of organic Carbon under anaerobic conditions."; "Soil is a major source, and sink, of greenhouse gases. Apart from industrial emissions, the soil is the largest and most active source of greenhouse gases, in particular CO2, CH4 and N2O, as well as being concerned with the fluxes of other gases .." When global temperatures are rising, there is an increase in decomposition which boosts global warming, "Living things may also enhance warming trends through such activities as speeding up microbial decomposition of dead organic matter, thus releasing carbon dioxide to the atmosphere (Schneider and Boston 1991; Allegre and Schneider 1994)."; "Saturated soils have only one drawback: Owing to natural decomposition of organic matter, global wetlands emit about 115 million tons annually of methane, the most potent greenhouse gas." Micro-organisms living in the muds and sediments at the bottom of lakes, marshes, rivers and the oceans also break down organic matter and, in so doing, release methane. This bubbles from the water into the atmosphere and boosts the greenhouse effect. This is a vital part of the Earth’s climate stabilization system since micro-organisms prevent the development of a catastrophic ice age, "A world with photosynthesizers only is unstable. They would soon have locked up in their bodies most of the available carbon. Their removal of carbon dioxide would have so weakened the greenhouse that the world would have frozen, and life ceased. This never happened. There co-existed with the photosynthesizers simple fermenters, the methanogens. These organisms processed the organic matter made by the photosynthesizers and returned the carbon to the air as a mixture of methane and carbon dioxide, restoring the greenhouse." It is not known whether this is part of the Earth’s climate stabilization system i.e. as the Earth gets colder there is an increase in Methane emissions. 2.1.2.2.2: Micro-organisms’ Respiration.
Just as is the case with terrestrial Plants, rising temperatures increase Micro-organisms’ respiration triggering the release of Carbon emissions, further boosting global warming, "Warmer bacteria would be livelier bacteria, which would respire more copious quantities of CO2 from soil to atmosphere." If Micro-organisms’ respiration exceeds the uptake of Carbon this will be another positive feedback boosting global warming, "There is a strong positive feedback between temperature and soils if these effects cannot be compensated by an increased fraction of net primary productivity, as may occur, for instance, through a CO2 fertilization effect."; "The probability is high that a warming will stimulate the respiration of terrestrial ecosystems, including the decay of organic matter in soils, sufficiently to exceed any net primary production." 2.1.2.2.3: The Destruction of Micro-organisms in the Soil Prevents them from extracting Methane from the Atmosphere.
"About 530 million tonnes (of methane) are produced annually. Of this 420 mt are converted to CO2 and by CO reactions with OH, a further 30 mt are removed by soil bacteria, and 30 mt are removed by other atmospheric reactions, leaving an increase of about 50mt per annum." 2.1.2.2.4: Marine Decomposers/Fermenters Saturating the Oceans with Methane.
Similarly, when the oceans warm up, marine decomposers release more Methane. This might saturate the oceans with Methane preventing the absorption of the gas from the atmosphere, "Recent research has shown that archaea, a microscopic lifeform similar to bacteria, may play an important role in methane production in the ocean. Archaea have only recently been recognized, and are thought to be remnants of one of the earliest life forms on Earth in the time when there was no free oxygen. They have been found twice in antarctic lakes. One species, Methanococcoides burtonii, is known to produce methane at the bottom of one of the lakes. Scientists suspect that a close relative of this species is producing methane in temperate and tropical oceans. "Even if the organism is present in very low numbers, its presence may have a major effect on greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Small amounts of methane produced in the ocean will quickly saturate the ecosystem, as methane is very insoluble, so continual production of methane in the ocean would prevent it from acting as a sink for atmospheric methane."" 2.1.2.2.5: Marine Algal Carbon Emissions.
Although a rise in global temperatures causes a decline in Algal Photosynthesis, Carbon continues to be released into the atmosphere, "Later in the ocean season coccolithophores bloom and release some of this gas back to the air. They do so by converting calcium bicarbonate of the ocean into the calcium carbonate of their shells and free Carbon dioxide, which escapes to the air. Patrick Holligan observes that the warmer the climate the more CO2 is released by the coccolithophores." 2.1.2.3: Oceans.
2.1.2.3.1: The Decline in the Ocean’s Ability to Absorb CO2; Warming Oceans Release Carbon Emissions.
The oceans absorb large quantities of Carbon from the atmosphere. The warmer the surface waters of the oceans, the less capable they are of absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere, "The top 5 metres of the seas hold more heat than the entire atmosphere. World-wide, the oceans are warming at the rate of about 1C a decade. That means that every year they become fractionally less efficient at absorbing CO2." As temperatures rise the oceans become less soluble to CO2, and begin to release the gas into the atmosphere, "Carbon dioxide is only slightly soluble in water and, as with oxygen, its solubility decreases as the temperature rises."; "Rising temperatures could reduce the oceans’ ability to absorb Carbon dioxide by as much as 50%, leaving the greenhouse gas in the atmosphere to heat the Earth further. Until now, climate models such as those by the ipcc, have assumed that the oceans’ capacity to remove CO2 from the atmosphere will stay constant as the world warms. "Warmer oceans will be more stratified, causing the ocean circulation system to slow down. As a result, it will absorb much less CO2 than at present - 50% less in some scenarios." says sarmiento of princeton university. Each year the oceans dissolve up to 2 billion tonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere. The oceans ‘bury’ CO2 by removing it from the surface layers of water. One key way of doing this is through convection currents, the biggest of which is the ‘conveyor belt’ that begins in the north atlantic. As ice forms here, saltier - and therefore denser - water is left behind. This denser water falls to the ocean floor, drawing water in behind it and setting up a current that begins a 1000 year journey around the world. When it returns to the north atlantic, it contains less CO2. However, if water in the north atlantic warms up and the current slows or carries less water, it removes less CO2. However, sarmiento warns, much of the CO2 in the oceans is taken to the ocean floor not by the circulation system, but by marine organisms. Once dissolved in surface waters, CO2 is absorbed by plankton and other marine organisms. Most of this Carbon eventually falls to the ocean floor. The strength of this sink for carbon depends on how much life the ocean is producing, and is largely independent of any changes in the oceanic conveyor belt."; "Warmer sea surface temperature lowers the solubility of CO2 in the oceans. In 1994 the IPCC estimated that there would be a weak positive feedback between a global increase in sea surface temperature and atmospheric CO2 estimated at 10 ppmv of CO2 for each 1 degree rise in temperature." The warmer the oceans, the greater the release of CO2, the greater the global warming. 2.1.2.3.2: The Increase in Water Evaporation.
The warmer the climate, the greater the evaporation from the oceans, the greater the boost to the greenhouse effect, the greater the evaporation, "The main greenhouse gas, water vapour, will increase in response to global warming and further enhance it." It has been estimated that, "Every year, over 400,000km3 (95,000 cubic miles) of water evaporates from the oceans into the atmosphere." It has been suggested that, "As increases in carbon dioxide warm the surface and the atmosphere, more water evaporates from the surface and remains in the atmosphere. In fact, the amount of water vapor that can be held by the atmosphere increases exponentially with temperature." According to a team of nasa and noaa scientists, "The GCMs suggest that effective doubling of carbon dioxide will give a 1.2C warming. The water vapour feedback brings 1.7C on top of that." 2.1.2.3.3: The Failure of Carbon Burial in the Oceans.
There are various phenomena which prevent the burial of Carbon on the seabed enabling Carbon to escape back into the atmosphere. When global temperatures rise these factors boost global warming. 2.1.2.4: Soil Decomposition.
This section refers solely to the soil itself - not micro-organisms which have been highlighted above. As temperatures rise, the soil loses its moisture. It also releases some of the greenhouse gases in the soil. The more the ground is baked, the more water and greenhouse gases are released. 2.1.3.1: The Melting of the Ice Sheets.
The albedo effect of polar ice is far higher than that of the sea or the land. As the Earth warms, the ice sheets on land and sea begin to melt, so that more solar radiation is absorbed by the exposed land and oceans. Thus, the greater the global warming, the greater the retreat of polar ice, the greater the oceans’ absorption of solar radiation, the faster the melting of the ice sheets, the greater the global warming. "The ice caps reflect more than 95% of incident solar radiation and thus keep the planet cool; melting, they would produce blue-green water, which reflects less than 15% of the sun’s energy and has a heating effect - which would augment the rate of melting." The ice albedo effect .. "is another positive feedback which on its own would increase the global average temperature rise due to doubled carbon dioxide by about 20%."; "The global climate models suggest that effective doubling of carbon dioxide will give a 1.2C warming. The ice-albedo feedback, according to their favoured GCM, is 0.4C."; "If a warming trend, as by the milankovitch effect, led to a decrease of land area, then increased Carbon dioxide together with the geophysiological feedback of a diminution in the area of reflective ice and snow cover would lead to a runaway rise of both temperature and Carbon dioxide.." 2.1.3.2: The Albedo Effect of Forests.
The taiga Forest has a dark hue and thus a low albedo effect. As global temperatures rise the taiga Forest absorbs more and more heat, thus boosting global warming, "The northern and southern temperate forests cover about 10% of the land area. Through their dark colour and capacity to shed snow, conifer forests may lessen the length of winter in near arctic regions."; "The snow-covered forests of the northern hemisphere can absorb more sunlight during the winter months than the adjacent treeless snowy areas and are therefore warmer. Not only do the exposed surfaces of the Trees absorb heat, but this heat also accelerates the melting of the snow that settles on them." 2.1.3.3: The Albedo Effect of Deserts Spreads Desertification.
Desertification could itself be responsible for boosting the scale of desertification and triggering off global burning, "The process of desertification is self perpetuating. Bright sand reflects sunlight, which produces high pressure regions that block out weather systems and contribute to lower levels of rainfall." 2.1.3.4: Terrestrial Photosynthesis Reduces Cloud Cover.
One commentator believes that in a warmer world Plants might extract more water from the atmosphere. This would reduce the scale of clouds around the Earth leading to a rise in global temperatures. The warmer the Earth, the greater the absorption of water, the fewer the clouds, the greater the reduction in cloud albedo, the warmer the Earth. As global temperatures rise the amount of water absorbed from the atmosphere by Photosynthesizers will depend on the overall impact of changes to the rate, and the scale, of Photosynthesis. The warmer the Earth, the greater the rate of Photosynthesis, the greater the absorption of water vapour, the warmer the Earth. As regards the scale of Photosynthesis: the warmer the Earth, the smaller the scale of Photosynthesis, the greater the reduction in the absorption of water vapour, the smaller the boost to global warming. Given that it is believed that the scale of Photosynthesis is more dominant than the rate of Photosynthesis, this seems to suggest there will be a reduction in the amount of water vapour extracted from the atmosphere which will maintain global temperatures. 2.1.3.5: The Albedo Effect of the Clouds Created by Forests.
An increase in global temperatures causes a decline in tropical Forests. This reduces cloud cover and boosts global warming. 2.1.3.6: Marine Photosynthesis Reduces Cloud Cover.
In a warmer world there is a decline in the scale of marine Algae and thus a reduction in the clouds formed by dimethyl sulphide. The warmer the oceans, the greater the reduction in marine Algae, the fewer the clouds, the greater the reduction in cloud albedo, the warmer the Earth. 2.1.3.7: From Tundra to Forests.
"Effects of land-surface changes. Albedo changes from the replacement of tundra by forests in northern high latitudes with warming may amplify the initial greenhouse gas forcing." 2.1.4.1: Peatbogs Boost the Heat Effect.
It is believed that as the Earth warms, Peatbogs will release more water vapour. Although in terms of the albedo effect this will lead to a cooling of the Earth, in terms of the heat effect, the latent heat of water vapour will boost global warming. 2.1.4.2: Oceanic Release of Heat from beneath the Ice.
It is often argued that the melting of the polar oceanic ice sheets would make little difference to global sea levels because the ice floats on water and thus already displaces water. However, the melting of these ice sheets would boost global warming not merely because the oceans would absorb far more heat than before but because, "The polar oceans contain heat trapped in the form of warm water beneath the ice, and this will be released into the atmosphere once the ice cover disappears, again boosting the original rise in temperature." 2.1.4.3: The Failure of Oceanic Gyres will Release Vast Quantities of Heat.
Vast quantities of warm water plunge into the ocean depths in polar regions and thus maintain the circulation of oceanic currents, or gyres, around the planet. It is suspected that global warming could halt this oceanic circulation thereby releasing heat into the atmosphere, "The heat sink is a gigantic ‘trap’ of energy transported deep into the oceans in the polar regions and released gradually by dispersal through the ocean current. At present up to a third of the solar heat-energy trapped in the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans and carried down to profound depths. The heat sink might cease - and with it temperatures on Earth might rise suddenly - if, as has been predicted, rainfall in the upper latitudes were to increase greatly. A large influx of fresh rainwater into the polar seas would decrease the density of the oceans’ surface water and probably prevent it from sinking." 2.1.4.4: The Distribution of Oceanic Warm Water.
"The ability of the oceans to store heat is 1000 times that of the air. The extent of greenhouse gas heating will greatly depend upon how much of the added heat is distributed in the oceans. If all of the predicted rise in surface temperature were mixed in with the oceans uniformly, there would be no perceptible rise in surface atmospheric temperature during the next century or so." 2.1.4.5: The Evaporation of Water Increases with Temperatures: the Increase in Water Vapour Releases more Heat.
It was pointed out above that the warmer the climate, the greater the evaporation from the oceans, the greater the boost to the greenhouse effect. The increase in evaporation also leads to an increase in the heat effect as water vapour dumps heat into the atmosphere as a result of condensation, "When the greenhouse effect warms the Earth, it accelerates the hydrologic cycle, more water moves around in the atmosphere, and rainfall increases in many places." 2.1.4.6: Clouds Release Warmth into the Atmosphere.
Some commentators argue that the warmer the climate the greater the evaporation and that this in turn warms the climate and brings about further evaporation. What tends to reinforce this spiralling process is that as clouds rise in the atmosphere they dump their heat into the atmosphere rather than into outer space .. "a warmer climate might lead to more clouds which would therefore offset some of the warming through light reflection. On the other hand, warmer clouds tend to rise higher and a higher cloud is a colder cloud; hence its ability to emit heat out to space is reduced." (Peter Bunyard ‘The Breakdown of the Climate. Human Choices or Global Disaster? Floris Books, Edinburgh 1999 p.50). 2.1.4.7: The Warming of the Taiga.
A rise in global temperatures increases the scale of the taiga Forest, increasing the absorption of solar radiation, "The northern and southern temperate forests cover about 10% of the land area. Through their dark colour and capacity to shed snow, conifer forests may lessen the length of winter in near arctic regions."; "The snow-covered forests of the northern hemisphere can absorb more sunlight during the winter months than the adjacent treeless snowy areas and are therefore warmer. Not only do the exposed surfaces of the Trees absorb heat, but this heat also accelerates the melting of the snow that settles on them." The warmer the global temperatures, the greater the scale of the taiga Forests, the greater the absorption of solar energy, the greater the heat effect, the greater the destabilization of the climate. It has been argued, however, that rising global temperatures damage the taiga Forest, "Boreal Forests are likely to have the hardest time in terms of climate change because they are in the regions where the temperature is expected to rise faster than anywhere else 4-5C above current temperatures." It is possible that as global temperatures rise the taiga will not change size at all, it will simply migrate northwards to remain in the temperature band where it is most comfortable. 2.1.5.1: Melting Ice Caps Trigger off Volcanic Eruptions.
"Nearly 60% of active volcanoes form islands or occupy coastal sites, and nearly all of the rest lie within 250 kilometres of a coastline. So changing sea levels could directly affect the stresses inside nearly all volcanoes, helping to expel the magma explosively. .. if human activity were to cause the catastrophic melting of the ice caps, this may well be followed or accompanied by a burst of elevated explosive volcanic activity. Nature’s way of cooling the planet may serve as an explosive warning about the consequences if we continue to tinker with the enormously complicated global system that is the Earth." 2.1.5.2: The Saturation of Carbon in the Oceans boosts Carbon Emissions.
If all the Carbon dissolved in the oceans remains in solution there would come a point when the oceans could no longer absorb any more Carbon and the excess would be pushed back into the atmosphere, "If most of the CO2 is absorbed in solution then a limit will be reached, but if most is trapped in the sediments, the absorption can continue indefinitely." If Carbon in the oceans reaches saturation point when global temperatures are rising this could further boost global temperatures. 2.1.5.3: Conclusions.
There are a wide range of different factors pushing the climate towards a global burning disaster. TWO: EXACERBATING GLOBAL COOLING.In the quartenary period there has been an increase in Photosynthesis during ice ages which helps to moderate the long term increase in solar radiation. Once astronomic forcing pushes the climate in the direction of global cooling, the scale of Photosynthesis boosts the momentum of this climate change towards an ice age. The Earth needs the capability of provoking ice ages to counter the long term increase in solar radiation but there is the danger this could slip over into runaway global freezing which could destabilize the climate and pose a threat to terrestrial life on Earth. The Earth needs to exacerbate global cooling without provoking global freezing. This section looks at the factors destabilizing the climate, pushing the Earth towards a runaway global freezing disaster. 2.2.1.1: The Scale of Photosynthesis.
Changes in the scale of Photosynthesis create positive feedback effects which destabilize the climate. When global temperatures fall, there is an increase in the scale of Photosynthesis which boosts the decline in temperatures. The colder the Earth, the greater the scale of Photosynthesis, the greater the global cooling, the greater the destabilization of the climate. 2.2.1.2: Increasing Terrestrial Photosynthesis.
2.2.1.2.1: Boosting the Scale of Forests.
As the Earth gets colder, ice sheets spread across the amero-euro-asian continents. This causes a drop in sea levels around the Earth and exposes more land along coastal areas in the tropics. Whilst ice sheets obliterate Forests across a huge expanse of the northern hemisphere, Forests begin to grow on the land emerging in the tropics. This produces a net increase in the scale of Forests around the Earth which drives down global temperatures. The colder the Earth, the greater the scale of Photosynthesis, the greater the global cooling, the greater the destabilization of the climate. 2.2.1.2.2: Peatbogs Boost Photosynthesis.
As global temperatures fall Peatbogs play a considerable role in extracting Carbon from the atmosphere and thus boosting global cooling. 2.2.1.3: Increasing Marine Photosynthesis.
2.2.1.3.1: Boosting Algal Photosynthesis.
When the oceans are warm they temperature gradients appear which prevent nutrients rising to the surface of the ocean. When the oceans cool these gradients disappear, nutrients rise to the ocean surface stimulating the growth of marine Algae. The rise in marine Photosynthesis extracts more Carbon from the atmosphere, further boosting global cooling. 2.2.1.3.2: Marine Algae Boost Terrestrial Photosynthesis through Sulphur Emissions.
As oceanic temperatures drop, marine Algae flourish and release more and more sulphur emissions. Some of this sulphur is blown onto the land and fertilizes terrestrial Phytomass. This further reduces the greenhouse effect, "Sulphur is scarce on the land and this new source could have enhanced the growth of plants. The increased growth would increase rock weathering and so increase the flow of nutrients to the ocean." 2.2.1.3.3: Marine Algae Boost Terrestrial Photosynthesis through Increased Rainfall.
As the oceans get colder, the growth of marine Algae boosts the release of sulphur emissions causing an increase in rainfall - some of which falls on the land. This boosts the growth of terrestrial Phytomass further reducing the greenhouse effect. 2.2.1.3.4: Dust Boosts Marine Photosynthesis.
It has been speculated that the colder the climate the drier the atmosphere becomes. Winds blow more dust into the oceans which stimulate marine Photosynthesis, thereby driving down global temperatures, "During an ice age the world is dry. Winds blow the dust from the arid land out over the oceans, where the iron in the dust helps marine organisms to grow. One effect of this is that Plankton thrive, absorbing Carbon dioxide, turning it into Carbonates in their shells, and dropping it onto the sea floor when they die."; "During the ice ages, the climate is drier and the winds stronger, so more dust blows into the ocean." 2.2.1.3.5: Increase in Terrestrial Nutrients for Phytoplankton.
As global temperatures decline and ocean levels fall, there is an increase in the run-off of nutrients from the land to the sea boosting the growth of Phytoplankton, "Life may also exert a destabilizing or positive feedback that reinforces climate change, particularly during transitions between interglacial periods and ice ages. One example: When climatic cooling leads to drops in sea level, continental shelves are exposed to wind and rain, causing greater nutrient runoff to the oceans. These nutrients may fertilize the growth of Phytoplankton, many of which form calcium carbonate shells. Increasing their populations would remove more carbon dioxide from the oceans and the atmosphere, a mechanism that should further cool the planet." 2.2.2.1: The Rate of Forest Respiration.
When global temperatures decline, there is a decrease in the rate of Forest respiration. This is a positive feedback factor enhancing global cooling. 2.2.2.2: The Rate of Forest Decomposition.
A decline in the Earth’s temperature produces a decline in Carbon emissions from Tree decomposition. This decreases the greenhouse effect thus destabilizing the climate. 2.2.2.3: The Extraction of Water Vapour.
A fall in global temperatures causes an increase in the scale of Photosynthesis which boosts the uptake of water thereby decreasing the greenhouse effect. This is a positive feedback factor boosting global cooling. 2.2.2.4: The Decline of Forest Fires.
When global temperatures are falling there are fewer Forest fires. This produces a decline in the climate moderating role of Forest fires. 2.2.3.1: Marine Algae Boost the Albedo Effect.
One commentator argues that marine Algae living in the surface waters of the oceans affect the amount of sunlight reflected off the ocean. As global temperatures fall, the increase in marine Algae boosts the oceans’ albedo effect, "Coccolithophore blooms are white in colour and increase the albedo of the ocean and so tend to cool by the reflection of sunlight back to space." 2.2.3.2: Marine Algae Boost Cloud Cover.
When oceanic temperatures fall, marine Algae release more dimethyl sulphide. This increases cloud cover thereby increasing the Earth's albedo effect. What is more, "If there are few condensation nuclei in the atmosphere, such as when the air is very clear, clouds are formed with fewer droplets of water, but these are larger. If there is an abundance of condensation nuclei, water droplets will also be more abundant, though smaller. In the latter case, clouds will be whiter and its albedo increased, reflecting the sunlight to a much greater degree, producing a cooling effect on the Earth’s surface." 2.2.3.3: The Albedo Effect of Forests.
2.2.3.3.1: The Replacement of the Taiga by Ice Sheets boosts the Albedo Effect.
The taiga Forest covers a huge expanse of the Earth’s land surface, "The northern and southern temperate forests cover about 10% of the land area." As global temperatures fall, ice sheets cover increasing areas of the taiga Forests. The taiga has a low albedo effect and absorbs considerable amounts of the sun’s heat, "Through their dark colour and capacity to shed snow, conifer forests may lessen the length of winter in near arctic regions." When the taiga is buried under ice sheets this boosts the albedo effect and thus global cooling. 2.2.3.3.2: The Spread of Tropical Forests Boosts the Albedo Effect.
The tropical Rainforests also cover a huge expanse of the Earth’s land surface, "The tropical forests also used to cover about 10% of the land." As global temperatures fall, there is an increase in the land along tropical coastal areas which boosts the scale of tropical Forests. The increase in the scale of tropical Rainforests increases the scale of tropical clouds which boosts global cooling - another positive feedback factor boosting global cooling. 2.2.3.4: Peatbogs Boost the Albedo Effect.
As global temperatures fall, there is an increase in the Photosynthesis carried out by Peatbogs. This increases Peatbogs’ albedo effect which boosts global cooling .. "cooler conditions favouring the advance of peatlands which, by holding water, generate mists that themselves significantly increase the albedo, which in turn causes a further cooling."; "Bogs also reflect more solar heat back into outer space than the Forests they replace - high latitude bogs in particular. In winter, they are covered in snow and reflect far more heat than Trees or shrubs capable of trapping any low angle sunshine. "These are potential mechanisms that could initiate ice ages," says lee klinger." 2.2.4.1: The Decline in Oceanic Evaporation.
The cooler the Earth, the smaller the amount of oceanic evaporation, the smaller the amount of heat released into the atmosphere. 2.2.4.2: The Decline in the Heat Absorbed by the Taiga Forests.
The colder that global temperatures become, the smaller the scale of the taiga Forests, the smaller the absorption of solar energy, the greater the reduction in the heat effect. 2.2.5.1: The Sedimentation of Carbon in the Oceans.
If all the Carbon dissolved in the oceans is taken up by Micro-organisms and buried on the ocean floor then the oceans could continually absorb more and more Carbon thus perpetually reducing the greenhouse effect and thereby triggering off a global freezing disaster, "If most of the CO2 is absorbed in solution then a limit will be reached, but if most is trapped in the sediments, the absorption can continue indefinitely." 2.2.5.2: Ocean Burial Exacerbates Global Cooling
The cooler the oceans, the weaker oceanic stratification, the greater the amount of Carbon buried in the ocean depths, the greater the boost to global cooling, "Only in the arctic seas during the winter is this (oceanic) stratification destroyed, when the winter cooling of the surface water increases its density. The surface water then sinks with its enriched carbon content, slowly circulating via the deep ocean and not coming to the surface again for 500-1500 years." THREE: THE INSTABILITY CAUSED BY CLIMATE FLIPS.The previous sections explored the way in which the Earth destabilizes the climate by exacerbating global warming and global cooling. However, it is speculated that there are circumstances where the climate could be destabilized by a climatic flip - the most well known of which is when global warming triggers off an ice age. There are geophysiological factors that might at first moderate global warming but eventually provoke global cooling. 2.3.1.1: Global Warming Increases Evaporation, Snowfall, and Global Cooling.
It is believed a rise in global temperatures will increase evaporation and evapotranspiration which will boost rainfall. If there is a vast increase in rainfall in polar areas it could trigger off an ice age. It has been pointed out that, "A desert is officially classed as a region with less than 10 inches (254 millimetres) of rain each year. Drought this bad has made a third of the world intensely hostile for humans to live in. Strange as it may seem, the largest desert in the world is antarctica. Although it’s mostly covered in snow and ice, the interior of the great ice continent only get about 5 inches of precipitation a year - just slightly more than the sahara." This suggests that even a small increase in rainfall over the antarctic could make a significant difference to ice formation. Such changes are already taking place in parts of scandinavia, "Although the area of the Alps covered by glaciers has halved over the past 150 years, the Jostedalsbreen Glacier, northeast of Bergen, in Norway, has been growing for 20 years. Parts of the glacier are now expanding at a 2.8cm (7 inches) per day. The reason is simple, glaciers grow when there is snow falling on them, and there is more winter snow falling on the mountains of Norway because the North Atlantic is getting warmer. Because weather systems at the latitudes of Norway and Britain come from the west, the warm water of the North Atlantic sends warm, moist air eastward in winter. More warmth means more evaporation, and more moisture in the air. Over Norway, it collides with cold air and falls as snow.." A number of commentators believe global warming could lead to global cooling, "The most surprising recent proposed explanation of ice ages comes from miller and anne de vernal. By studying fossils of microbial life in sea beds, they believe they have found evidence that global temperatures went up as the last ice age began. How could warmth cause an ice age? Snow is the raw material of glaciers. But snow rarely falls in cold climates because the air can hold significant humidity for snow only when warmer than zero fahrenheit. Today, for example, glaciers cover most of southern greenland. The ground is bare in north greenland because it is colder there, making snow uncommon. Suppose .. when the climate grows a little warmer more snowflakes descend in the northern latitudes. The miller-de vernal study has an ominous implication: that ice ages do not necessarily require millennia to build but may strike over a time span of perhaps only centuries. (This theory was later reinforced by another study). In july 1993 the greenland ice core project caused jaws to drop around the academic world when it released data suggesting that during the eemian global temperatures bounced up and down dramatically."; .. "the greenhouse effect, while warming up the Earth for a short while, may set in train events that could plunge the Earth into an imminent sudden chill."; "What is not in doubt is that the higher temperatures resulting from the greenhouse effect will mean increased precipitation in many parts of the world. The warmer the air becomes, the greater is its capacity to retain moisture. Thus global warming will increase cloud cover which will lead to greater rainfall totals in many places and substantially increased snowfall in the polar regions"; "The polar regions .. are so cold that a few degrees of global warmth is not enough to melt them but, more important, increasing warmth brings more water vapour and more snow. Ice can give rise to negative as well as positive feedback on global warming."; .. "some scientists believe that the increased snowfall in the area (antarctica) would compensate for the ice lost through extra iceberg calving." 2.3.1.2: Rising Temperatures Reverse Ocean Circulation and Trigger off an Ice Age.
Pat coyne has proposed that an increase in the concentration of atmospheric CO2 could produce a rise in global temperatures leading to flooding that triggers off an ice age. If the greenhouse effect melts the arctic ice, there would be a flow of fresh water into the north atlantic which might reverse the gulf stream. It is believed this happened during the last interglacial period, the eemian, when an initial rise in the greenhouse effect led to a dramatic drop in global temperatures of 10C over 10-30 year periods, "One possibility is the diversion of ocean currents .. The flow (of the Gulf stream) is maintained by the difference in salinity between the more salty north atlantic and the less saline North Pacific. But if the salinity were reversed, so might the flow. (If the greenhouse effect melted ice in the Arctic, this less saline water would pour into the North Atlantic). That could be enough to halt the Gulf Stream, causing temperatures in northern Europe to plunge by around 6C, overwhelming the greenhouse effect and perhaps .. even triggering a full-blown ice age." Coyne concludes about the current inter-glacial that, "There is an equal and opposite threat (to global warming) that seems to have received far less attention - that of an ice age. .. it is quite conceivable that the greenhouse effect could, far from causing general warming, trigger off a new ice age." This hypothesis is supported by other commentators .. "the
enormous amount of heat released by the gulf stream .. as it sweeps up
into the north atlantic it gives up the heat like a massive radiator.
The fear is that a gigantic thaw of ice from the arctic will release so
much fresh water into the north atlantic it will knock the gulf stream
off course .. Less well known is the ‘atlantic conveyor’; every winter
at about the latitude of iceland, relatively salty water rises as winds
sweep the surface. Exposed to the cool air, the water releases heat and
then sinks to the bottom again. The heat given off is equal to 30% of
the yearly input of the sun’s energy to the north atlantic. Studies of
the last ice age suggest that this current may be particularly vulnerable
to small changes in salinity and temperature."; "When the greenhouse
effect warms the Earth, it accelerates the hydrologic cycle, more water
moves around in the atmosphere, and rainfall increases in many places.
Some models suggest that this will slowly decrease the salinity of the
north atlantic, making the surface water less dense. Were a critical threshold
to be crossed, ocean circulation would abruptly switch to a new stable
mode. It would not necessarily be a rapid return to an ice age, but it
might be a start in that direction."
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