These are the picks for the 2004 season. Bold represents the team selected to win. Games in red represent the Upset of the Week. At the bottom, The weekly and overall records for the season appear at the bottom. These picks are based purely on winners and losers with no consideration from the spread. The spread is only used to determine upsets for the Upset of the Week.
It was the biggest trade in the offseason. Bigger than the Terrell Owens trade and dwarfing the Corey Dillon trade. What made the trade so big was that it was an exchange of Pro Bowl players. The moment after running back Clinton Portis and corner back Champ Bailey were swapped by the Washington Redskins and Denver Broncos, the debate began over who got the better of the deal.
What it comes down to is the trade satisfied their schools of thought. Washington head coach Joe Gibbs is a proponent of the running game and wanted a stud ball carrier. In his debut, Portis ate up 148 yards on the ground with a touchdown for his new team. Broncos head man Mike Shanahan desired a corner who could take away the opposing team's best receiver. So he appreciated the interception and solid coverage by Bailey on Sunday night. To top it off, Both teams won their openers, thanks in part to their new acquisition.
Both coaches like to run but Shanahan felt he could get the desired results from his running game without Portis. In his mind, a shut-down corner is harder to find than a quality running back. Based upon his experiences and league trends Shanahan just might be right.
Of the 12 running backs that gained 100 yards or more in the opening week, only four of them were drafted in the first round. A breakdown by rounds: First round RBs are San Diego's LaDanian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk of St. Louis was originally selected by Indianapolis, Edgerrin James of Indianapolis, and Seattle's Shawn Alexander; Portis was drafted by Denver in the second round, as was Tiki Barber by the New York Giants; Third round picks were Curtis Martin of the New York Jets (New England), Tennessee's Chris Brown, Brian Westbrook of Philadelphia, and Ahman Green of Green Bay (Seattle); The fourth round produced Denver's Quentin Griffin. Kansas City's Priest Holmes was never drafted. He was a rookie free agent with Baltimore.
Draft trends also point to teams putting less priority on running backs and more on corners. In the past three drafts, seven running backs have been drafted in the first round compared to eight corner backs, but no running back was drafted higher than sixteenth overall. Four corners were taken in the top ten over that span, plus a fifth corner taken eleventh overall.
If Shanahan needed any more evidence that a solid running back is easier to find than a shut down corner, he can point to his backfield in Denver as the names of Terrell Davis (sixth round), Olandis Gary (fourth), and Mike Anderson (sixth) preceded Portis as 1,000-yard backs. The only question remaining is whether Griffin will be next or will Tatum Bell, a rookie selected with the second round pick acquired from Washington as part of the Bailey-Portis trade, will be the fifth.
The bigger question becomes how will these teams cope without their former star. Washington limited Tampa Bay to just 169 yards, though that's a total team defensive effort. Denver though can single out Quentin Griffin. Replacing Portis, the 5'7" scamper back out-gained his predecessor with 156 yards and two touches.
The performances of the Portis and Bailey will be closely watched weekly, as will Griffin's play. It may be a win-win situation for Washington and Denver in the end. Statistically, comparing Portis and Bailey is like comparing apples to oranges. But humans can eat either so it comes down to what they like better.
I certainly liked my first week of 11-5. If I can keep this up, I know I got juice.
Carolina at Kansas City - L
Tough break for 'Lina wideout Steve Smith, who broke his leg late in the game on Monday night. Following surgery, only time will heal his injury. As for the defense, it will take more than time to fix what's wrong with that. This trip to KC comes too soon for the Panthers and the Chiefs do damage.
Chicago at Green Bay - L
Corner back Mike McKenzie will finally report to G.B., though he does it reluctantly. He still wants to be traded, but lacks leverage. Here's an idea, borrowed from Cuban baseball players. Play the game, then afterwards, defect to the opposing locker and declare yourself a player for the other team. Mike might want to wait until a better team comes to town, though. For now, hold on to that green and gold jersey for at least another week and enjoy this Packers win.
Denver at Jacksonville - L
Very clever, Mike Shannahan, but you're not slicker than the league. For overly-creative accounting, the NFL is fining the Broncos and taking away a third round pick for violating the salary cap in the late 1990's. Don't think that pick isn't valuable to Shannahan. He was gonna use it for his next running back after he trades Quentin Griffin when he asks for a new contract. For now, he'll give Griffin the ball and ground out a Broncos win.
Houston at Detroit - W
It was the first road win for the Lions since 2000, a 24-game road losing streak finally snapped. But please, don't let it go to your head, Detroit. They asked the league to move this home game Texas due to Hurricane Ivan. The request was rejected. It won't matter where they play the Texans, the Lions can defeat the challengers.
Indianapolis at Tennessee - W
It should go down to the wire between these two teams for the division so they get an early start on their fight for first place. This is a lesser Titans team from last year while Indy is barely changed. It's like Tennessee is coming to a firefight with just one canister of fuel. They'll get burned by the Colts offense.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore - W
Seems like Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis didn't move the electronic first-and-10 line back enough times to stop Cleveland. Could this be a sign of the Madden cover curse? Lewis graces the cover of the 2005 edition and those players who preceded him suffered unfortunate circumstances to say the least. I'm not buying it, yet. This game is for the Ravens to win.
San Francisco at New Orleans - W
Life is tough in the San Fran pocket. Quarterback Tim Rattay started but was knocked out of the game. Ken Dorsey replaced him, but he suffered the same fate, forcing Rattay back in. Trainers are using tape to hold the passers together. Guess who's licking their chops. The N'Orleans defenders devour what's left of the 49ers QBs as the Saints engulf San Francisco.
St. Louis at Atlanta - L
Falcons quarterback Michael Vick had it goin' on in the first half but cooled off in the second, but Atlanta was able to hold on to the win. As for Atlanta's defense, it never warmed up. With a hot St. Louis offense coming to town, the D could suffer from heat rash. The Rams' offense burn ATL's defense.
Washington at N.Y. Giants - L
I just got a letter from the Giants, addressed from head coach Tom Coughlin. He fined me an undisclosed amount for not picking New York to win last week. I'm already writing a check for next week because I see the Redskins getting over the Giants.
Seattle at Tampa Bay - W
It is almost shocking to see T.B.'s offense fail to score a touchdown in the season opener considering they signed enough players in free agency to form two teams. If that's the best they can do, then the Seahawks shouldn't have too much of trouble pushing aside the Buccaneers.
Buffalo at Oakland - L
Raiders quarterback Rich Gannon claims head coach Norv Turner has been a calming influence on him. Can you tell? He won't be in your face on the sideline. Instead he'll pen a letter politely telling whoever is a scum-sucking retarded baboon who has no clue how to do their job correctly. Gannon should keep pens and paper handy as the Bills pull off the Upset of the Week.
Cleveland at Dallas - L
After two dozen stitches, quarterback Vinny Testaverde's arm is re-attached and ready to go this Sunday. Is it a smart idea to let the elderly Dallas passer make so many attempts at his age? It will turn to rubber eventually at that pace. Cleveland QB Jeff Garcia is 26 attempts behind Testaverde and the lighter workload factors into the Browns bouncing the 'Boys.
N.Y. Jets at San Diego - W
Word is if prized rookie quarterback Phillip Rivers gets up to speed soon, S.D. will move incumbent Drew Brees or release Doug Flutie. If the Chargers are thinking trade, then treat Brees like stock and sell when his value is high. Letting him get through this week will reduce his value as the Jets crash the coast.
New England at Arizona - W
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is meticulous in regards to preparation. He took the team to Arizona days earlier so the team could adjust to the weather. Part of the preps is turning off the air conditioning in all hotel rooms. The players will lose an average of 20 pounds by the time they get back home, but will be happy to bring back a Patriots win as well.
Miami at Cincinnati - W
This must be page 42 in the coaches' music book. Dolphins head coach Dave Wansteadt changed his tune to quarterback A.J. Feeley giving Miami the best chance of winning. It's too bad Dan Marino resigned from his post because he'd be next in line to start. Otherwise the Bengals stay the course with Carson Palmer for the win.
Minnesota at Philadelphia - Monday Night - L
There's a war of words between Minnesota's Randy Moss and Philly's Terrell Owens over who is the better receiver. The competition inside the game will be fun as the respective quarterbacks try to feed their go-to guys to have a better night. It might be even by the end of the night, but the Vikes can rely on more that just Moss. This contest goes to the Vikings.
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