New York Jets at Pittsburgh - W
When they Run: Running back Lamont Jordan was a spark plug for the Jets, gaining 50 yards on just seven carries. But that doesn't take away from the grinding that Curtis Martin put in. It was a lunch-pail 66 yards by Martin. The team rushed for 126 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. If they can do this again, New York will be in great shape...Steelers football is back in full force. Whether it be Jerome Bettis or Duce Staley, Pittsburgh will pound away with their running backs. The average per carry doesn't matter as much as the number of attempts. They ran on average 38 attempts per game. It will be a long day if they control the game on the ground.
When they Pass: For someone with a bad shoulder, quarterback Chad Pennington was sharp, throwing for 279 yards and two touchdowns. The 47-yard touchdown pass was particularly nice as he hit receiver Santana Moss in stride. Justin McCareins was clutch as well, moving the chains by contributing 87 yards...Looks like receiver Plaxico Burress will play. He developed a rapport with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and is the team's deep threat, averaging 19.9 per reception. Not that Burress is the only option. Roethlisberger can depend on Hines Ward for first downs and Antwaan Randle El to make something happen.
Defending the Run: As long as they play disciplined, New York should be fine. Defensive tackle Dwayne Roberson made a mental error, jumping offsides on a fourth down. He made up for it on the next play, blowing up a run for a loss. The linebackers (Jonathan Vilma 13 tackles, sack; Eric Barton 11 tackles; Erik Coleman 9 tackles) were active and effective...No one did it better than the Steelers in 2005. Middle linebacker James Farrior became a Pro Bowler for his 94-tackle season. Safety Troy Polamalu, known more for his pass coverage led the team with 96 tackles. The key to the D has been nose tackle Chris Hope. For a back-up that's undersized for the position (he replaced Casey Hampton), Hope played great with 89 tackles.
Defending the Pass: Barton nearly cost the Jets the game thanks to his roughing the passer punch to the helmet on a 4th-and-goal incompletion. San Diego tied the game on the next play. New York also managed to defend consecutive pass plays with just 10 players on the field. They likely won't be lucky two weeks in a row. That hole will get exploited if open again...If a team can get to Pittsburgh's corners, they might have the advantage. But first they must find the time against a defense that had 41 sacks. Polamalu patrols the secondary and picked off five passes. Farrior covered underneath, making off with four interceptions. The Steelers made off with 19 passes, returning three for touchdowns.
Special Teams: Kicker Doug Brien missed a very make-able 39-yard field goal, but connected on his next two, including the game winner. The second attempt miraculously went through after two bounces. The return game was ho-hum but the punt team was great, downing two punts deep inside the 20...Randle El is a dangerous returner for the Steelers. Kicker Jeff Reed understands the swirling winds in Heinz Field. He was 7-for-10 on kicks 40 yards and longer. Punter Chris Gardocki had only eight fair catches, contributing to a 37.4 net yard average.
The Pick: Defensive end Shawn Ellis said after the regular season game played between the teams that he felt his Jets team would win if they played again. Well Ellis is no Joe Namath. Ellis' prediction falls short as the Steelers have their say.
St. Louis at Atlanta - L
When they Run: Impressive to see the Rams rush 27 times in a game. Running back Marshall Faulk showed he still can be highly effective, gaining 55 yards for a 4.2-yard average. But even this ground display won't convince defenses that St. Louis is serious about running the ball. Head coach Mike Martz makes no secret that he wants to air it out...The combination is called DVD, as in Dunn, Vick, Duckett. These three combined for 2,517 yards and 20 touchdowns for the Falcons. Hardest to defend is Michael Vick since he can drop back to pass then decide to make a run for it. Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett can break short gains for big runs.
When they Pass: With the exception of an interception, quarterback Marc Bulger was stellar for the Rams. He was able to connect deep: 52-yarder to Torry Holt and 50 yards to Kevin Curtis. Both plays led to touchdowns. More importantly, Bulger found little-used tight end Cam Cleeland for the game-winning touchdown. Bulger was sacked five times...No team threw the ball less than the Falcons. When they did, no starter does it worse than Vick. He connected on just 56 percent of his passes and only threw 14 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. His first look is tight end Alge Crumpler. He led the team with 48 receptions and six touchdowns.
Defending the Run: St. Louis did a great job holding Seattle's Shawn Alexander to just 40 yards. Defensive tackle Ryan Pickett was big in the middle contributing six tackles, tied with two others for the second on the team. If there's any concern it's that Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck gained 26 yards on two carries. Vick is a little faster than Hasselbeck...Atlanta's D-line lacks size but makes up for it in quickness. As a team, they were ninth in the league, allowing 105 yards per game. Linebacker Keith Brooking led the team with 101 tackles with safety Bryan Scott with 96.
Defending the Pass: As good as Bulger was, the Rams secondary made Hasselbeck look better. They got a big assist from the Seattle receivers who dropped five passes. If not, they would had been recovering at local hospitals suffering from third degree burns. The pass rush was decent, coming up with three sacks...Rookie corner back DeAngelo Hall might be their best cover corner. Aaron Beasley led the team with four interceptions, and he doesn't even start. The pass rush, led by defensive end Patrick Kerney (13 sacks) and defensive tackle Rod Coleman (11.5), had 48 sacks. The pressure the front brings leads to turnovers: Four of the 19 interceptions were returned for touchdowns.
Special Teams: Coverage units were tight for the Rams, allowing just one punt return and holding Seattle to just 18.2 yards per kickoff return. Kicker Jeff Wilkins hit his two field goal attempts. A dim spot was punter Kevin Stemke averaging just 29 yards per punt...Allen Rossum was better returning punts than kickoffs this year for the Falcons but is still feared every time he gets to return. On the flip side, punt and kickoff coverage was solid. Kicker Jay Feeley had no attempts beyond 50 yards and missed half of his field goals between 40-49 yards.
The Pick: Vick is the most dangerous player in the league and can shift the tide in his team's favor. But right now St. Louis is riding a wave of momentum that sweeps through Atlanta. The Rams come crashing down on the Falcons.
Minnesota at Philadelphia - W
When they Run: Minnesota's ground attack got a big boost from quarterback Daunte Culpepper. He led the team with 54 yards on six attempts. The element of surprise was the difference since when running backs Ontario Smith or Michael Bennett carried the ball, the result was less than average...Not that the Eagles can't run, but head coach Andy Reid prefers not to. Then again, would being dedicated to the ground game be too much on running back Brian Westbrook? He did a great job during the regular season, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, but Westbrook is undersized. Dorsey Levens should see some carries to carry part of the load. Quarterback Donovan McNabb might tuck and run more without his favorite target to throw to.
When they Pass: Culpepper got help from his playmakers. Running back Moe Williams broke a tackle on a short play before racing 68 yards for a score. And those two touchdown catches by receiver Randy Moss were great plays by him. The only negative was the four sacks given up by the offensive line...McNabb will have to elevate his play and make his Philly teammates better. Without wide out Terrell Owens, McNabb will have to make stars out of receivers Freddie Mitchell and Todd Pinkston. Westbrook likely will get more defensive attention so tight ends L.J. Smith and Chad Lewis could be factors.
Defending the Run: Green Bay's Ahman Green had a good evening, but the Vikings didn't let him run wild. The Vikes especially did a great job holding the bruising Najeh Davenport to a paltry 2.8 yards per carry. If the unit can repeat this performance, then it will make the secondary's job much easier...Thanks to big leads, opponents had to abandon the rush attack but individuals gashed the Philly defense on the ground in the first half of the season. Philly's run defense got a boost when linebacker Jeremiah Trotter was moved into the starting lineup while moving Mark Simoneau to the outside. Simoneau is doubtful for the game.
Defending the Pass: It might had been the best defensive game played by the Vikings all season long. Coming away with four interceptions is only half of the story. The tackling was solid, keeping yards after the catch down. Corner Antoine Winfield led the team with eleven tackles...Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson will send wave after wave of Eagles on blitzes. Defensive end Javon Kearse will be utilized all over the field. They want to give him the best lanes to pass rush into. If he doesn't get there, others will benefit from the attention Kearse draws. Philly had 47 sacks on the season. Lito Sheppard, in his first season as a starter, led the team with five picks, returning two for touchdowns.
Special Teams: Gary Anderson was good on his only attempt from 35 yards out. The return teams did nothing special, but the coverage units only gave up a 30-yard kickoff return. Otherwise, the Vikings held it down...Kicker David Akers had yet another great year for the Eagles. He was 80 percent from 40 yards or longer. Punter Dirk Johnson planted 20 punts inside the 20 while maintaining a good average. Coverage units were good.
The Pick: McNabb has won before without Owens. A two-week break for the starters might only mean it takes a little longer to warm up, but once the Eagles pick up steam, they should roll over the Vikings.
Indianapolis at New England - W
When they Run: Somehow with the huge passing numbers put up by the Colts offense they found some time to run. Most of it was when the game was well in hand. Running back Edgerrin James had a pedestrian 68 yards for what it is worth, but had a huge game in Indy's first matchup against New England...Did the Patriots think they'd get this kind of a season out of running back Corey Dillon when they traded for him last April? He had a dream season, rushing for 1,635 yards and 12 touchdowns. But he had a surprising number of fumbles this year. Kevin Faulk is more than just a receiver out of the backfield. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry, equal to Dillon.
When they Pass: Colts quarterback Peyton Manning doesn't play favorites; he attacks weaknesses. With a rookie corner assigned to receiver Reggie Wayne, Manning went to Wayne early and often until the wide out posted a team playoff record 221 yards. Tight end Dallas Clark was major as well with 112 yards and a touch. Manning's toughest decision could be who to attack this week...Tom Brady put together another great season for the Patriots. He took advantage of the numerous receivers he can throw to, completing a pass to 15 different receivers. Brady's favorite target is Deion Branch with David Patten the deep threat. Not to be overlooked is David Givens, who during seven starts in place of Branch had three 100-yard games.
Defending the Run: Thanks to a quick lead, Indy didn't get pounded at by Denver. When ran at, the Colts defense didn't give up much. Linebacker Rob Morris should be ready to go for the Colts. He led the team in tackles with eleven. Rookie free safety Bob Sanders gave his support with eight tackles...The big question in New England is whether Pro Bowl defensive end Richard Seymour will be ready to go. Whether he plays or not, his linemates shouldn't be overlooked. Defensive end Ty Warren made a huge improvement in just his second year. Safety Rodney Harrison is great in run support and as a blitzer. He led the team in tackles with 138.
Defending the Pass: Defensive end Dwight Freeney didn't have a sack, but his Colts teammates picked up the slack. What might hurt his production is defensive end Robert Mathis likely will miss the game. Now the pass protection attention is focused on Freeney. Even though Indy knew the pass was coming, they gave up three plays of over 20 yards...Who's left to play in the secondary for the Pats? They are without the starting two corners, Tyrone Poole and Ty Law. The pass rush, led by linebacker Willie McGinest (9.5 sacks) need to bring pressure to help the depleted secondary. The team totaled 45 sacks. Linebacker Tedy Bruschi might have the best hands in the league at the position.
Special Teams: Hard to be critical of Indianapolis' return units considering the lack of work they had. Overall the coverage was good, with the exception of a 41-yard kickoff return allowed. Kicker Mike Vanderjagt was justly criticized, not for his play, but for his mouth...N.E. kicker Adam Vinatieri was the league's best kicker this season, missing just twice all year. Punter Josh Miller was also a great free agent signee. Kick returner Bethel Johnson looks to have found his stride recently. Both coverage units weren't up to their usual Bill Belichick standard.
The Pick: Vanderjagt is correct in saying New England is ripe for the picking. That doesn't mean you should eat the fruit. Virtually all the numbers will favor the Colts. The exception will be the scoreboard as the Patriots survive the Indy onslaught.
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