St. Louis at Seattle - L
When they Run: It's anybody's guess if the Rams make a commitment to run in the playoffs. Will they be the team that attempted 15 in one game or rushed eleven times in a row in another? They do have an effective pair of runners in Marshall Faulk and Stephen Jackson. But will they make use of them?..When the Seahawks give Shawn Alexander 25 or more carries, they win. Though in both games against St. Louis, Alexander had at least 22 carries and Seattle lost both. Alexander scored 16 touchdowns, so it would be in the Seahawks' best interest.
When they Pass: Few teams attempted more passes than the Rams. The bad news is no playoff team had as many interceptions either (22). Quarterback Marc Bulger is responsible for 14 of the picks but threw 21 TDs to offset the errors. He not only has Torry Holt (1,372 yds 10 TD) and Issac Bruce (1,292-6) to throw to, but found reliable targets in Shawn McDonald and Kevin Curtis (515-5) as well...Darrell Jackson has stepped up his game for the Seahawks, with 87 catches for 1,199 yards and seven touchdowns. He doesn't do it alone, as six other receivers have at least 21 catches. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck did a good job of distributing the ball. Will Koren Robinson be allowed to play?
Defending the Run: This is part of the reason why the Rams pass so much. Opponents gain 4.5 yards per attempt on the ground. The linebackers are young, but the blame doesn't start there. The defensive tackles haven't done a good job. St. Louis drafted Ryan Pickett, Damione Lewis, and Jimmy Kennedy in the past four years and none of them have been a solution in the middle...The Seahawks have a similar problem with run defense, as they allow 4.5 yards a pop as well. They will need safety help from Terreal Bierria and Ken Hamlin to shore up the run defense. Back-up linebacker Isiah Kacyvenski finished second on the team in tackles, behind corner Marcus Trufant, meaning a lot of ball carriers got to the second level.
Defending the Pass: Opponents completed 59 percent of their passes on the Rams secondary while connecting for 24 touchdowns. Figure into the equation that St. Louis only picked off six passes, then the Rams have a problem. The pass rush comes up short as well. Leonard Little didn't have his typical season, maybe because he wasn't complemented well enough by Bryce Fisher...It gets worse for the Seahawks, as they surrendered a 61 completion percentage and 24 touchdowns. Defensive end Grant Wistrom won't be back for the playoffs. He would had made a difference against a St. Louis team that allowed 50 sacks.
Special Teams: Kicker Jeff Wilkins missed just five attempts, including four-of-five from 50 yards or more. Neither punt nor kickoff returning has been a bright spot for the Rams, while giving up one punt return touchdown...Josh Brown was a deadeye, missing just twice all year, though the youngster wasn't tested at long distances, making his only 50+ attempt. Bobby Engram had been a dangerous returner in the past and shouldn't be taken lightly, averaging 11.8 per return.
The Pick: Seattle had their chances and failed both times. They had a 17-point lead in the home game between these two teams and let it slip away. It won't happen again as the Seahawks hold off the Rams.
New York Jets at San Diego - L
When they Run: Age ain't nuthin' but a number to Curtis Martin. At 31, he claimed the league rushing title with 1,697 yards and added 12 touchdowns. If Martin takes a breather, LaMont Jordan comes in with his 5.2 yard-per-attempt average. New York's offensive line is athletic and mobile...Jesse Chapman proved to be effective in a pinch. He had 103 yards sharing the ball with LaDanian Tomlinson when the latter was nursing an injury. Tomlinson is healthy now and finished the season with a 12-game rushing touchdown streak.
When they Pass: The focus will be on quarterback Chad Pennington. The New York media has been critical of him for not playing his best in big games. He must lead the offense to the endzone consistency. You can't blame his targets. Santana Moss and Justin McCareins can make plays and Martin as well as fullback Jerald Sowell are options from out of the backfield...Brees to Gates has been the key to the Chargers' passing game. Quarterback Drew Brees might be the feel good story of the season, but he's gonna have to make use of other targets. Keenan McCardell has made the best of his seven games with S.D., catching 31 passes for 393 yards. Tomlinson caught 53 passes in various ways.
Defending the Run: The Jets have revamped the D and it begins with the linebackers. They added speed to all three positions and Jonathan Vilma, Eric Barton, and Victor Hobson all played great. The development of disruptive Dewayne Robertson has also helped shore up the defensive front...Nose tackle Jamal Williams keys the 3-4 defense played by the Chargers. He occupies blockers to let linebackers Donnie Edwards (150 tackles) and Randall Godfrey (84) clean up. San Diego finished the season as the third best run defense in the league.
Defending the Pass: Unfortunately the Jets linebackers aren't fast enough to cover receivers. Yes, the team finished with 19 picks, but it was picked apart for 21 scores. Defensive ends John Abraham (9.5 sacks) and Shawn Ellis (11) need to keep the pressure up to help the secondary...Was there anything Edwards didn't do for the Chargers? He led S.D. with five of the team's 23 interceptions, a total that was third best in the league. They cover well because San Diego doesn't have much of a pass rush. Linebacker Steve Foley led the team with 10 sacks. The two next closest on the team were tied with four.
Special Teams: Kicker Doug Brien was solid for the Jets going 24/29. Moss was a dangerous punt returner in college but is yet to be that same guy in the pros. Of concern is punter Toby Gowin. He averaged just 38.2 yards per punt...The Chargers don't have that worry with punter Mike Scifres. he averaged 43.1 per punt and coverage units downed 29 of Scifres' 69 punts inside the 20. Tim Dwight is a threat on kickoff returns. He took one back for a score during the regular season.
The Pick: The recent red zone problems for the Jets will persist and keep them from potentially upsetting San Diego. The Chargers move on.
Denver at Indianapolis - W
When they Run: Head coach Mike Shannahan has proven his point that the system produces 1,000-yard runners by making Reuben Droughns the latest in a long line of Broncos to eclipse that mark. Droughns is a strong runner who makes tough yards. He's recently been complimented by Tatum Bell, who has the speed to break big gains...While Indy was getting league-wide recognition for how they were approaching and breaking passing records, running back Edgerrin James quietly gained 1,548 yards with nine scores. He'll see big holes with teams so concerned with trying to hold back the aerial attack.
When they Pass: Quarterback Jake Plummer put together a great statistical season: Over 4,000 yards, 27 TDs, 58.2 completion percentage; But he threw 20 interceptions, negating much of his good work. Rod Smith once again had a strong season. The difference is Ashley Lelie is finally emerging as a playmaker, averaging 20.1 yards per catch...Tough talk by Denver safety John Lynch won't phase the Colts receivers. They won't worry about physical play because they run great routes. Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stokley all gained over 1,000 yards and at least 10 touchdowns. If that's not enough, James has 51 receptions and tight ends Marcus Pollard and Dallas Clark combined for 54 catches for 732 yards and eleven TDs.
Defending the Run: The Broncos might had found the defensive rookie of the year in linebacker D.J. Williams. He led the team in tackles. Pairing him with Al Wilson gives Denver two LBs that can fly all over the field and make plays. Defensive tackles Mario Fatafehi and Monsanto Pope don't make a lot of tackles but have been effective...Indy is small up front and can be run on, evidenced by the 4.6 yards per carry average. Their biggest relief would be a big lead. Linebacker Rob Morris can be run at. As a unit, they might not be the best tacklers, but they forced 36 fumbles, second best in the league.
Defending the Pass: That's why the Broncos traded for Champ Bailey. The corner was voted to the Pro Bowl his first year with the team. But he can't cover three receivers and two tight ends by himself. Safety John Lynch is better closer to the line than in coverage. The Pass rush comes from defensive end Reggie Howard and from no one else...It's a young secondary that improved over the course of the season. Over the course of 16 games, they made off with 19 passes, returning two for touches. Defensive end Dwight Freeney (16 sacks) has a partner in crime in Robert Mathis (10.5). Raheem Brock chipped in with 6.5 sacks.
Special Teams: Denver's coverage units didn't do a great job in '04. It makes punter Micah Knorr's work (41.5 average, 34.2 net) all for naught. Kicker Jason Elam continues to perform at a high level. He's 75 percent from 40 yards and further...Dominic Rhodes might have a decreased role with the Colts offense but made a difference returning kickoffs, averaging 24.4 per return. Punter Hunter Smith might be out-punting the coverage (45.2 average, 36.8 net). Kicker Mike Vanderjagt kicked well for the Colts.
The Pick: Hope the Broncos aren't feeling confident from their season finale win over the Indy shell of a team. The real one comes to play this week. When serious, Denver has no chance against the Colts.
Minnesota at Green Bay - L
When they Run: Quarterback Daunte Culpepper can hand it off to either Onterrio Smith (544 yards), Mewelde Moore (379), or Michael Bennett (276) and any of them will be productive. Or Culpepper (406) could keep it himself. The Vikings offensive line is big, physical, and can open holes for just about anybody...It wasn't as productive a year for running back Ahman Green. He might not of had the yards, but the 4.5 yards per carry is encouraging for the Packers. Even better was the 5.1 output up by Najeh Davenport. He's proven to be an effective change-of-pace and short yardage back for Green Bay.
When they Pass: It no longer just about wide out Randy Moss anymore. Nate Burleson led the team in yards with 1,006. And tight end Jermaine Wiggins led the team in receptions with 71. But when it comes to scoring, Culpepper looks to Moss as his first option (13 TDs). Marcus Robinson (47-657-8) was a big contributor as well...Javon Walker has finally arrived for the Packers. He led the team with 1,382 yards and a dozen TDs. Not too far behind him was Donald Driver with 1,208-9 totals. Quarterback Brett Favre threw a high number of picks (17) but had 30 touchdowns, the eighth time in his career. His preferred red zone target is tight end Bubba Franks with seven scores.
Defending the Run: Stuffing ball carriers is the forte of linebacker E.J. Henderson but he can't do it alone. The defensive tackles don't hold up the point of attack very well. Steve Martin is the best run-stopper of the linemen, but he doesn't start. The starting DTs are upfield types and could attack themselves out of position...This has been a problem for the Pack as well. They are better with Grady Jackson anchoring the middle. He should be back to play, returning from a knee injury. This team has young linebackers. Nick Barnett has matured quickly and led the team with 123 tackles.
Defending the Pass: What's that? The Vikings don't know the meaning of defending the pass. Opposing quarterbacks completed 62 percent of of their passes and threw 30 touchdowns. What's worse is safety Corey Chavous will not play this week. They signed corner Antoine Winfield and he has made a difference. But he's only one man...The Packers have a pair of young corners and should expect to be picked on. As a unit, they allowed a robust 61 completion percentage and 33 touchdowns. In hopes of keeping those numbers down, they'll unleash defensive end Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (13.5 sacks).
Special Teams: Morten Anderson is getting up there in age and might not have the distance in his leg for any kicks 50 yards or further. Darren Bennett had a down year. Kickoff coverage under-performed as well...Ryan Longwell won the two games against Minnesota for Green Bay. Robert Ferguson is the best kick returner on the team, averaging 25 yards per return.
The Pick: The previous two meetings ended in 34-31 victories for the team in green. It would be freaky if the final score was the same for the third time around. It will be high scoring again, with the Packers coming out on top again.
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