These are the picks for the 2004 playoffs. The bold represents the team selected to win. The weekly and overall records for the playoffs appear at the bottom.
Tennessee at Baltimore - W
Offense
Run: The Titans are in the lower half in rushing yards, but continue to grind out yards in an effort to keep defenses honest. Running back Eddie George isn't the player he used to be, but has played well recently. George's successor, Chris Brown, is second on the team in rushing but might be held back in favor of Robert Holcombe due to Brown's lack of experience...As much of an achievement 2,066 yards is for running back Jamal Lewis, much of the credit goes to the offensive line. They are the biggest quintet in the league and can wear down opponents. Lewis is a freak of nature: A 240-pound runner with very good feet and breakaway speed. He's the first and second offensive options for the Ravens.
Pass: Quarterback Steve McNair clearly had his best season as a pro, finishing with a league leading 100.4 passer rating. He's still a threat to run, but he made most of his plays from the pocket to a underrated group of receivers. Derrick Mason is a premiere wide out and is accompanied by Drew Bennett and Justin McCareins (17.3 yards/rec). Tight ends Erron Kinney and Frank Wycheck combined for 58 receptions...Baltimore is the only team to gain more yards on the ground than in the air and it's by design. Quarterback Anthony Wright is asked not to make mistakes, but threw eight interceptions and has been sacked 18 times in just 178 attempts. Tight end Todd Heap led the team in receptions but wide receiver Travis Taylor would be great if there was a capable passer to get him the ball.
Defense
Run: Middle linebacker Rocky Calmus missed the last three games and the first two. Opponents averaged 91.6 yards per game in those five, up from 76 yards per game with Calmus. Safetys Lance Schulters and Tank Williams play close to the line. Both hit like linebackers. Defensive tackles Albert Haynesworth and Robaire Smith eat up space, allowing LBs Keith Bullock and Peter Sirmon to make tackles...All the glory goes to LB Ray Lewis but he doesn't do it alone. In the 3-4 system, the linemen do an excellent job of keeping the 'backers clean. Edgerton Hartwell, the other middle linebacker, nearly had a 100-tackle season of his own and is a load in the hole. Nose tackle Kelly Gregg finished with 80 tackles, a very high number for a D-lineman in a 3-4 scheme. 33 fumbles were recovered by the team second most in the league.
Pass: Linebacker Peter Sirmon might be one of the best coverage linebacker in the league. He can shut down opposing tight ends. Fellow 'backer Bullock has excellent range. The corners are a tough pair, although Andre Dyson, the less experienced of the duo, likely will get picked on because teams don't want to challenge Samari Rolle too often...The same goes for Chris McAlister, who was voted as Pro Bowler. But he's not the one to keep a close eye on. Safety Ed Reed gets in the right place at the right time often. He led the team with seven of Baltimore's 24 interceptions. Right behind him is Ray Lewis with six. The addition of linebacker Terrell Suggs fortified an already formidable pass rush. The rookie led the team with 12 sacks. The Ravens have 47 sacks for the year.
Special Teams: If Tennessee is going to kick a field goal longer than 50 yards, they call on regular punter Craig Hentrich. Kicker Gary Anderson is accurate, but can't kick for distance. The return teams are mildly productive...S Reed blocked two? field goals during the season and must be accounted for. Kicker Matt Stover is perfect 40 yards and in. Beyond that he's eleven of 16, including 0-2 from 50 yards and beyond. Return teams don't scare anybody.
The Pick: Scoring will be tough. This is a game that will be won in the pocket. This advantage easily goes in favor of McNair and the Titans.
Dallas at Carolina - W
Offense
Run: Running back Troy Hambrick could had established himself as a quality runner in his first season as a starter but he was mostly unspectacular for the Cowboys. He doesn't make moves to avoid tackles and break long gains. Unless Dallas is behind by two or more touchdowns, Hambrick will get 20-25 carries to keep the defense honest. Aveion Cason is the change of pace back and averaged 5.5 yards per rush...Stephen Davis sure seems like a great fit with Carolina. The big running back was shown the door by Washington because the coach felt Davis wouldn't fit the pass-first system. Now on a Pathers team that pounds away, Davis has flourished. His 318 carries have worn Davis down, but head coach John Fox reduced Davis' touches the past two weeks so Davis should be ready to carry the load.
Pass: The stars of the Dallas passing game are the wide receivers, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway, and Antonio Bryant. All three have deep speed, run crisp routes, are willing to go over the middle, and can make difficult catches. It's just a matter of quarterback Quincy Carter getting them the ball. He's cooled from his hot start and now has 21 interceptions, XX in his last X games...Jake Delhomme isn't a big-time quarterback, but he's stepped up when the Panthers needed him, orchestrating a few game-winning drives during the season. Nor has he taken a beating as Delhomme was sacked just 24 times. Receivers Steve Smith (88-1,110-7) and Mushin Muhammad (54-837-3) aren't specatular but get the job done. The tight ends are under-utilized.
Defense
Run: Size didn't matter to the Cowboys front seven. They combined to be the best rush defense in the league and held opponents to 3.5 yards per carry. The linebackers are fast and get very good safety support from Darren Woodson and Roy Williams. Rookie corner Terence Newman doesn't shy from contact either. This team tackles very well...Run defense for Carolina is so team-oriented that not one player has 100 or more tackles. Linebacker Will Witherspoon led the team with 99 tackles followed by safety Deon Grant with 96. The defensive line is active and can penetrate but doesn't stop many runners. Opponents gained four yards a pop.
Pass: The Dallas secondary is physical, starting with Newman. He's not intimidated coming into the league and picked off four passes to go with his 17 passes defended. Linebackers Alshermond Singleton and Dexter Coakley are solid in coverage. In fact, Coakley was a converted college safety. Talking about safetys, receivers don't want to cross the paths of Woodson or Williams...It starts up front for 'Lina. The front four applies a lot of pressure. Defensive end Julius Peppers fell short of his production as a rookie but is believe to be hitting his stride right. If Peppers catches up to DE Mike Rucker's play (12 sacks), passers will be nervous. Defensive tackle Kris Jenkins (5 sacks) keeps the heat on up the middle.
Special Teams: This is an achillies heel for the 'Boys. Kicker Billy Cundiff was just seven of 12 from 40 yards and out. Punter Toby Gowin averaged just 39 yards on punts, but did drop 25 of his 94 punts inside the 20. Return teams lack punch but the coverage units take care of business...The same can be said about Carolina's return and coverage units but kicker John Kasay and punter Todd Sauerbrun were great. Kasay is 13-of-17 from 40 yards and out and Sauerbrun averaged 44.6 yards on punts.
The Pick: They played a close game during the regular season with Dallas coming out on top at home. The Cowboys haven't played at their best recently. Figure in the home field advantage for the Panthers and 'Lina gets the better of the 'Boys in the rematch.
Denver at Indianapolis - L
Offense
Run: It doesn't seem to matter who carries the ball for the Broncos because the offensive line's technique is impeccable. Running back Clinton Portis possibly is the most dangerous runner in the league as he has the shiftiness to break long gains and the speed to score from anywhere. Head coach Mike Shannahan rested Portis' injuries so Clinton is ready...Indy's Edgerrin James is once again the workhorse, able the carry the team's load after a year recovering from a torn knee ligament. James didn't break as many big gains but still plugged away at a 4.1 yards per carry clip.
Pass: Denver's passing game works much better when quarterback Jake Plummer is running the show. Shannahan likes rolling Plummer out of the pocket because he's very effective throwing on the run. A dozen receptions separate wide out Rod Smith and Shannon Sharpe, but second year receiver Ashley Lelie is the deep threat (17 yds/rec) and must be accounted for...Quarterback Peyton Manning had his best year with the Colts because he has more than just Marvin Harrison to throw to. Receiver Reggie Wayne (68-838-8) came into his own in his second year. Five other players finished with at least 22 receptions, though Indy will be without rookie tight end Dallas Clark
Defense
Run: Two linebacker, John Mobley and Ian Gold, missed most of the season, but their replacements, Nick Ferguson and Jashon Sykes played very well in place of the injured players. Defensive tackle Trevor Price leads the big defensive line that keeps the linebackers clean as well as make plays of their own. Throw away the performance by Green Bay's Ahman Green in the season finale and the D held opponents to 3.9 yards per carry...Colts head coach Tony Dungy drafts players based upon ability and overlooks the measureables. That's why the D-line is undersized. Opponents enjoyed rushing at a 4.5 yards pace against Indy. Middle linebacker Rob Morris isn't as good as his outside counterparts David Thornton and Marcus Washington. Morris doesn't shed blocks well and doesn't always fill the hole.
Pass: Including middle linebacker Al Wilson, Denver has one of the fastest trio of linebackers in the league. They can stay with tight ends and backs coming out of the backfield. It's a no-name secondary that gets the job done. Kelly Herndon (three) has a third of the team's interceptions. Defensive end Bertrand Berry leads the team with 11.5 of the team's 36 sacks...If an opponent decides to pass against the Colts, they likely will have a lot of success. QBs connected on 62 percent of their passes while only being sacked 31 times. Safety Michael Doss might be the best playmaker in the secondary. Washington teams with defensive end Dwight Freeney as the pass rush artists (17 sacks between the two).
Special Teams: Deltha O'Neal is the best returner on the Broncos but is only used to return punts. Chris Cole and Reuben Droughns return kicks for good averages but neither broke huge plays. Kicker Jason Elam continues to perform at a high level and punter Micah Knorr finished with a 43.2 average...Kicker Mike Vanderjagt: Perfect (37/ 37 FG) for the Colts. Punter Hunter Smith pinned 20 punts inside the 20, forcing opponents into long drives. The Colts surrendered two kickoff returns for touchdowns.
The Pick: Without Portis, Denver ran all over the Colts in Indianapolis and a convincing 31-17 win. With Portis, it's hard not to imagine that the Broncos do the same thing, if not worse.
Seattle at Green Bay - W
Offense
Run: Running back Shawn Alexander is a four down running back. He's big enough to gain tough yards and is quick and fast enough to take any carry all the way. He also has a nose for the endzone, evidenced by his 14 rushing touchdowns. Head coach Mike Holmgren wanted Alexander to hit holes quicker and he's done so with great results (1,435 yds)...If Ahman Green can't get going for G.B., then the Packers will have problems. He has carried a large load but it hasn't slowed him down. 355 carries is a lot to ask, but if he's averaging 5.3 yards per carry, why stop? Najeh Davenport gets a few carries here and there and makes the most of them (5.5 yds/carry).
Pass: Seattle has all the pieces: a productive quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck (3,841 yds 26 TD), and a full slate of pass catchers from a primary receiver down to the third down specialist/slot receiver and even great production out of the tight end position. The only negative is Hasselbeck was sacked 42 times this season...As great as quarterback Brett Favre is, he needs to be reeled in a bit. Yes he had 32 touchdown passes but also threw 21 interceptions. The pass distribution is very even. In a West Coast offense, the backs are expected to catch, but sharing 101 receptions seems high. The wide outs can stretch the field and make big plays. Favre needs to utilize them better.
Defense
Run: Holmgren rotates his defensive linemen, keeping them fresh for the game and giving his Seahawks their best chance at winning. The D allowed a decent 3.9 yards per carry thanks to great play out of the linebackers. Anthony Simmons led the team with 99 and Chad Brown contributed 85. Seattle got a big surprise out of safety Ken Hamlin. The rookie finished second on the team in tackles with 96...Green Bay's 'backers are young, fast, and good. Thrust into the starting role, Nick Barnett was solid in the middle, collecting 112 tackles to lead the team. The defensive line has been disappointing though, as they didn't anchor the run defense like they should. Defensive tackles Cletidus Hunt, Gilbert Brown, and Grady Jackson for all their girth don't shrink running lanes.
Pass: Rookie corner Marcus Trufant turned in a great season for the Seahawks. Besides 83 tackles, he picked off two passes while defending 17. QBs would rather go after him because Shawn Springs is on the other side and don't want to gamble against Springs. Safety Reggie Tongue was solid in coverage and led the team with four interceptions. Simmons was second with three...The Packers secondary balanced out the interceptions Favre threw. They gathered 21 interceptions, off-setting Brett's errors. Safety Darren Sharper does more than just hit. He led the team with five picks. Corner Mike McKenzie wasn't a high profile draft pick but proved his worth quickly. He finish second with four interceptions.
Special Teams: Coverage units are tight, especially punt coverage. Seattle kept opponents to just 4.8 yards per punt return. Bobby Engram is aging, but was dangerous returning punts. Kicker Josh Brown is 50 percent from 40 yards and out. Seattle blocked two punts while downing 29 inside the 20...Green Bay's kicker, Ryan Longwell, missed only three kicks all year. Punter Josh Bidwell had a solid season as well, averaging 41.7 yards per punt. The return game comes up short, though.
The Pick: The Seahawks are 2-6 on the road, including a loss at Lambeau Field in the fourth game of the season. A road win in the season finale doesn't cancel out the season trend. Road woes haunt Seattle and they go down to the Packers.
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Super Bowl XXXVIII