These are the picks for the 2004 playoffs. The bold represents the team selected to win. The weekly and overall records for the playoffs appear at the bottom.
Indianapolis at New England - W
Offense
Run: Indy's offensive line opened some gaping holes for running back Edgerrin James to exploit. With the path cleared, James gashed the Kansas City defense for runs of 15, 18, 13, 14 and an eleven-yard touchdown run. James finished with 125 yards, averaging 4.8-yards per carry...For the second time the Patriots generated an effective run game against Tennessee who finished the regular season as the top run defense in the league. Running back Antowain Smith led the attack that gained 96 yards. More importantly, Smith averaged 4.3 yards per carry and had runs of 17, 13, and 10. Even quarterback Tom Brady gained three yards on a carry that was part of a touchdown-scoring drive.
Pass: Quarterback Peyton Manning and his fellow Colts receivers are playing like they are in the CFL. Manning was a ridiculous 22 of 30 on the afternoon and has connected on 79 percent of his passes in the playoffs. Seven players caught passes from Manning, including six for Reggie Wayne, who quietly had a solid performance in the divisional game...After a torrid start, Pats quarterback Tom Brady cooled off in the second half, but made some crucial throws on the deciding drive in the fourth quarter. Wide out Troy Brown had only two catches, but one was a four-yard reception on fourth and three to keep the drive for the game-winning field goal going. Brady was not sacked once on the night against a fierce Tennessee pass rush but N.E. will be without their best lineman in center/guard Damien Woody.
Defense
Run: Amazingly, Indianapolis' run defense was worse than K.C.'s as Priest Holmes galloped to 176 yards and two touchdowns almost effortlessly. Indy gave up 196 total rushing yards. Linebacker David Thornton led the team with eleven total tackles, many of them from behind. It's the second week in a row opponents had their way on the ground against the Colts...The Patriots kept Tennessee running back Eddie George under control but had issues dealing with rookie Chris Brown. The D was also burned by quarterback Steve McNair's 12-yard run during their final drive. Linebacker Tedy Bruschi led the team with nine total tackles and defensive end Willie McGinest had a solid night as well, turning an option pass play into a 10-yard loss.
Pass: The numbers allowed by the Colts secondary is nothing to be proud of: 60 percent completion percentage and every receiver had a gain of at least 10 yards. Part of the problem was lack of pressure as they failed to sack the quarterback. They won't be bailed out by the offense every game...As good were some of the catches by the Tennessee receivers, New England's secondary wasn't up to the task for most of the game. They saved their best for last during Tennessee's final drive. Creative blitzes made McNair rushes a few passes. The secondary was a couple of steps late on McNair's final pass but wide out Drew Bennett just dropped the pass.
Special Teams: Extra time needs to be devoted to the Colts' kickoff coverage. They gave up a 92-yard kickoff return for a touchdown last week and must deal with New England's Bethel Johnson who did the same in the regular season and had a 67-yarder that set up another score. Indy didn't punt to Kansas City, the Colts' second punt-less playoff game...Two special teams plays stick out from that Patriots win over Tennessee: The blocked field goal and Brown's nine-yard punt return late in the game. The block prevented Tennessee from taking a lead. Brown's punt return helped set up the game-winning 46-yard field goal. Keep in mind that kicker Adam Vinatieri missed a 44-yard attempt in the first half.
The Pick: If the Colts continue to play no defense, then the ride is over. New England plays great defense and should slow down Indy enough for the Patriots offense to score just enough points to derail the Colts.
Carolina at Philadelphia - W
Offense
Run: There's the question of whether running back Stephen Davis will be available for 'Lina but will his absence matter? DeShawn Foster more than just filled in for the Panthers' leading rusher. He's more than just a change of pace back. Give props to the offensive line as they mauled the St. Louis defense play after play...What better way to make up for the loss of running back Brian Westbrook than to encourage quarterback Donovan McNabb to run for the Eagles? The opportunities presented itself and McNabb took advantage. Hopefully he's over trying to prove himself to the rest of the league that he's a capable passer because his legs are such a weapon.
Pass: For the most part, quarterback Jake Delhomme did as asked for the Panthers. With the exception of the one interception, Delhomme played under control and made plays when asked. The way he's playing, maybe the coaches should extend his leash. Receiver Steve Smith was the hero, but that might had gone to tight end Jermaine Wiggins if Carolina won in regulation. His 21-yard reception in the first OT set up the first field goal attempt...Give credit to McNabb and receiver Freddie Mitchell for converting that 4th and 26, saving the Eagles from what looked like an impossible situation. McNabb also was great on the run, using his feet to buy time for his second touchdown pass. The negative is that McNabb was sacked eight times. McNabb can't safely stand around this week.
Defense
Run: Overall a shut-down job by the Panthers defense holding St. Louis to just 64 rushing yards, but at the same time, there were only 23 rushing attempts by 'Lina's opponent in a game that lasted just over 75 minutes. But give credit where's credit is due. Inside or outside, Carolina gave up very little ground...Once again the Philly defense was ripped apart by Green Bay's Ahman Green. He gashed the Eagles for 156 yards, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Linebacker Ike Reese took the spot of injured Carlos Emmons and finished with just three tackles, but he made a contribution elsewhere.
Pass: The good news for Carolina is they made off with three interceptions including one in the second overtime by cornerback Ricky Manning that set up the game-winning pass. But they almost blew an eleven-point lead in the fourth quarter in just 2:39 and poorly covered running back Marshall Faulk during those two drives. St. Louis also moved the ball well in overtime...It's important to note that Philly held Green Bay to just three points after halftime. That's because Brett Favre had just 67 yards passing over the same period of time. Safety Brian Dawkins was in the right place for the interception. It was a bad pass thrown by Favre who was under pressure. The 35-yard return by Dawkins really helped put the offense in great position for the winning drive.
Special Teams: It was poor coverage on the onside kick. It gets no worse than the kicker recovering his own onside kick. Even worse was the penalty on what would had been the game-winning field goal. The next attempt missed...What's important for kicker David Akers is he connected on the game tying field goal and the game-winning field goal in overtime. His first quarter miss is forgiven. Punter Dirk Johnson was outstanding, averaging 43.1 yards and dropping two inside the 20.
The Pick: Philly overcame a dire situation and won, something they did in the regular season. How much longer will the stars stay aligned for the Eagles? Carolina found ways to win and do so again as the Panthers upset the Eagles.
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