These are the picks for the 2004 playoffs. The bold represents the team selected to win. The weekly and overall records for the playoffs appear at the bottom.
Carolina at St. Louis - L
Offense
Run: If running back Stephen Davis was nursing any injuries, he sure didn't look it as he pounded away for the Panthers. He made big run after big run for first downs, keeping third downs manageable, and the big 23-yard touchdown. Davis basically had his way all night and he owes the offensive line a lot for opening big holes. They manhandled Dallas' front seven...Head coach Mike Martz better come to his senses and hand the ball to running back Marshall Faulk at least 20 times if Martz wants to give his Rams their best chance at winning. Faulk had just 209 carries so he should be fresh. Lamar Gordon does a very good job in relief.
Pass: Few, if anybody, expected a big game out of 'Lina quarterback Jake Delhomme. But he stood in the pocket and delivered. Receivers Steve Smith (5-135 TD) and Mushin Muhammad (4-103) came up huge, making some difficult catches. And the offensive line gave Delhomme time as he was sacked just once...St. Louis can't confidently say Marc Bulger is our starting quarterback. He's tied for first in the league with 22 picks thrown and Bulger absorbed 37 sacks. But he just keeps on winning. He's throwing to two great receivers in Torry Holt (117-1,696-12) and Issac Bruce (69-981-5). They are complemented by third wide out Dane Looker and Faulk who can line up anywhere on the field.
Defense
Run: Thanks to a commanding halftime lead, the Panthers didn't have to deal with stopping Dallas' ground game. Linebacker Will Witherspoon was all over the place in the first half as he made several tackles. Defensive tackle Kris Jenkins turned in a great performance as his ability to anticipate the snap count got him into the backfield to disrupt plays...The youth up the middle will have their hands full and must step up for the Rams. Linebacker Pisa Tinoisamoa had a good season considering he started as a rookie. Safety Adam Archuletta led the team in tackles. He plays close to the line. Second year LB Tommy Polley needs to play better. Defensive tackle Brian Young is underestimated.
Pass: 'Lina kept the pressure on Dallas quarterback Quincy Carter and kept all receptions to a minimum. Carter finished with just 154 yards passing, an average of 4.3 yards per attempt. The Panthers allowed very few yards after the catch, an accomplishment considering the caliber of the receivers they faced...Opponents make the mistake of trying to match St. Louis' aerial show. It plays right into the hands of a secondary with bad intentions. The biggest boost was moving Aneas Williams from corner back to safety. He can cover slot receivers and tight ends one-on-one. Williams was one of four Rams with four picks. As a team, they nabbed 24 passes.
Special Teams: Smith took punt return duties for the night with little to show for it. Kicker John Kasay connected on all five field goal attempts and punter Todd Sauerbrun averaged a glorious 48.4 yards per punt...Kicker Jeff Wilkins was excellent, missing just three field goals out of 42 attempts, including 12/13 from 40 yards and out. Protection might be a concern considering two Sean Landeta punts were blocked. Coverage units are bad, giving up four returns for touchdowns (two each punt and kickoff).
The Pick: St. Louis dodged a few bullets over the course of the season but came away with a flawless record at home. The Panthers defense will give them fits, but can't match the Rams offensively.
Tennessee at New England - W
Offense
Run: It was an inspirational performance by Titans running back Eddie George. He separated his shoulder before the end of the first half but continued to play through the pain and finished with 88 yards on 25 carries. None were more important than the eight yard gain that helped set up the game-winning field goal. Rookie Chris Brown turned in a explosive 61 yards in relief...Most likely New England head coach Bill Belichick will lean on running back Antowain Smith for the majority of the carries. It was a backfield by committee that was timely, but marginally productive. There will be important first downs, but don't expect the Patriots to ground out yards. Kevin Faulk is the third down specialist but there is the possibility Mike Cloud plays in place of either one. He put on a performance when these teams met in the regular season.
Pass: Co-league MVP, quarterback Steve McNair, played poorly enough to cost Tennessee the game. He threw three interceptions, two of them were poor decisions: The red zone pick and the deep throw with 3:47 left to play in the fourth. The receivers made up for McNair who didn't play his best game. Wide out Justin McCareins made a great adjustment on the 49-yard touchdown reception of a underthrown ball...There may be no quarterback who distributes the ball better than N.E.'s Tom Brady. The receiving corps, with the exception of Troy Brown, are young but they make big plays. Deion Branch is on the cusp of breaking out and David Givens came up big down the stretch. Tight end Daniel Graham is slowly revealing his talent but his hands are inconsistent. Fullback Larry Centers catches out of the backfield.
Defense
Run: Not to take anything away from the job the Titans defense did on Baltimore's Jamal Lewis, but he carried the ball only 14 times! Why the league's leading rusher didn't get more touches is befuddling. On those 14 carries, Tennessee did a great job of stuffing the plays and keeping gains to a minimum. Lewis averaged just 2.5 yards per carry, less than half his average during the regular season...New England's D-line is anchored by nose tackle Ted Washington, all 370 pounds of him. Though he missed X games, the D never slipped, holding opponents to 3.6 yards per carry. Defensive end Richard Seymour, in just his third year, is already is regarded one of the best interior linemen in the league. Behind Washington and Seymour, linebacker Tedy Bruschi and safety Rodney Harrison filled holes.
Pass: Tennessee's secondary made a few mistakes none worse than the coverage on Baltimore tight end Todd Heap on the tying touchdown. Safety Tank Williams had poor position and never looked for the ball. The Titans made an inexperienced quarterback look good for most of the evening...Is there a better secondary than New England's? Doubtful. Both corners, Ty Law, and Tyrone Poole, played at Pro Bowl levels, although only Law received the honor. They got invaluable contributions from two rookies: Corner back Assante Samuel and safety Eugene Wilson. Harrison made several touchdown-saving tackles and Bruschi scored two touchdowns on three picks. The Patriots led the league with 29 interceptions.
Special Teams: Kicker Gary Anderson had just enough leg to boot the game-winning 46-yard field goal with :29 left in the game. Wide receiver Derrick Mason took punt return duties for the evening, averaging just above 11 yards per return. Coverage units were stellar...Patriots head coach Bill Belichick emphasizes special teams and he can't be too happy with the performances. Punter Ken Walter had the worst average and occasionally shanks his punts. Kicker Adam Vinatieri didn't have the accuracy of years past. At least the coverage units are solid and rookie Bethel Johnson makes big plays on kickoff returns.
The Pick: All streaks come to an end, right? New England is riding a 12-game streak that began when they beat Tennessee way back in October. N.E. doesn't concern themselves with the streak and always focus on the next game which will be a Patriots win.
Indianapolis at Kansas City - W
Offense
Run: Call it a half day for Indy running back Edgerrin James. His day ended after 17 carries but he made the most of them. James averaged a robust 4.6 yards per carry for 78 yards. Part of his success is due to the explosiveness of the passing game...K.C. has possibly the best running back in the league in Priest Holmes. He does it all, including finding the endzone, something he did from the ground 27 times, a new NFL record. He must appreciate the O-line that has worked together for over 30 games. Their cohesiveness shows in their technique.
Pass: Flawless. Not much more needs to be said about the performance by Indianapolis' quarterback Peyton Manning. A very heads up play by wide receiver Marvin Harrison to get up and run for a 46-yard touchdown. The star though was Brandon Stokley who finished with 144 yards and two touchdowns...First time Pro Bowler Trent Green proved why head coach Dick Vermeil acquired him when Vermeil was still coach of the St. Louis Rams. He finished with twice as many touchdowns as interceptions. And he has great players to throw to: Tight end Tony Gonzalez (71-916-10) and wide outs Eddie Kennison (56-853-5) and Johnny Morton (50-740-4). Green throws to Holmes a lot too and they run screen passes very well.
Defense
Run: Good thing the Colts' offense put on a show. No one paid much attention to the run defense that allowed 146 yards on the day at a 5.6-yard clip. There weren't any huge gains but enough five, six, seven-yard runs that it should be a concern for the team. Linebacker David Thornton was active, finishing with 10 total tackles...Olé! K.C. practically held doors open for opponents to gash the Chiefs on the ground. Opponents ran wild for a total of 2,344 yards, an average of 5.2 yards per carry. This generosity kept linebackers Shawn Barber (112 tackles), Scott Fujita (111), and safety Greg Wesley (104) very busy. Stopping the run begins with improved play from the interior linemen. They must step up.
Pass: Down by 18 halfway into the second quarter, Denver had no choice but to pass and it played into Indy's hands. The defense played like a Tony Dungy-headed unit as they allowed few big plays like head coach Dungy wants. Corner back David Macklin made off with two picks on the afternoon. The defense didn't miss safety Mike Doss...A porous secondary matches the passive run defense in Kansas City. But it also leads to many opportunities for turnovers. Wesley and corner Dexter McCleon tied for the team lead with six interceptions each. K.C. snagged 25 passes on the season. The other safety, Jerome Woods, made the most of his three picks, returning two for touchdowns.
Special Teams: The Colts barely used special teams. Kicker Mike Vanderjagt continued his streak, tacking on two field goals to his regular season streak of 37 straight. They didn't punt once and hope they don't this week...Because it would mean giving returner Dante Hall chances to take one back for a K.C. score. He returned two punts and two kickoffs for touchdowns. Punting and field goals are weaknesses. Kicker Morten Andersen isn't accurate beyond 40 yards.
The Pick: K.C. is undefeated at home. They just play better. But does the defense have what it takes to stop Indianapolis? My brother says the final score could be 101-100. If so, the one point edge goes to the Colts.
Green Bay at Philadelphia - L
Offense
Run: Packers running back Ahman Green didn't gain many yards but he did get some quality yards, namely the two one-yard touchdown runs. He also had a few important short gains for first downs. Green came on strong in the second half, in particular 21 of 51 yards on a fourth quarter scoring drive. Nahjeh Davenport was effective in short yardage situations...Philly's ground game could had been monikered Ghidorah because it was a three-headed monster of Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, and Correll Buckhalter. But a head has been cut off. Westbrook won't play this postseason, removing the most explosive player of the trio. Quarterback Donovan McNabb doesn't run as much as he used to but he's still a threat. He averaged 5 yards per attempt.
Pass: The most important stat for Favre was he didn't throw an interception which could had finished Green Bay. Favre utilized the wide receivers very well, completing eleven passes to Donald Driver and Javon Walker for 177 yards. Fullback William Henderson chipped in 38 yards on three receptions and tight end Bubba Franks made a great catch for the touchdown...Don't front on McNabb's success. He threw five of his eleven interceptions in the Eagles' losses. In the wins, he had 14 touchdowns against 6 picks. No receiver stands out, but opponents gotta cover them all. Seven players caught at least 20 passes. Fullback Jon Ritchie caught three touchdowns and the tight ends ( L.J. Smith and Chad Lewis) shared 50 receptions.
Defense
Run: G.B.'s front seven was great on the afternoon, holding Seattle's Shawn Alexander to just 45 yards and a 2.3-yard average. But they couldn't stuff him at the goal line as he scored three touchdowns. The defensive line showed up and executed very well...And this is where Rush Limbaugh's argument against McNabb falls short because Philadelphia's defense wasn't great this year. Opponents averaged 4.5 yards per carry. The front seven has speed but lacks size, like with defensive tackle Corey Simon and middle linebacker Mark Simoneau. The D suffered a lot of injuries over the course of the season and is without linebacker Carlos Emmons.
Pass: If it wasn't for several drops by the Seattle receivers, the Packers wouldn't be the subject right now. The secondary was carved up but saved face when corner Al Harris squatted on a short route and intercepted the pass for a 52-yard return for a touchdown and win...Strong safety Brian Dawkins missed a lot of time but is back. He's a valuable playmaker in Philly's secondary. Corners Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor are both up there in age. They might had lost a step but still get the job done. Injuries took a toll on the pass rush as well as the Eagles finished with just 38 sacks.
Special Teams: Kicker Ryan Longwell had a chance to win the game for the Packers but was short on a 47-yard field goal attempt with no time left. Blame it on the weather conditions, but that should be within his range. Returner Antonio Chatman's 21-yard punt return helped set up a fourth quarter score...Westbrook returned two punts for touchdowns for the Eagles, including a game-winning return against the New York Giants. Kicker David Akers was six of 10 from 40 to 49 yards which is not up to his standard.
The Pick: They know each other's offenses so well. The difference comes down to execution and the Packers edge the Eagles.
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