Sijmen's Calendar of Events

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"Sijmen I LOVE this experiment thing. Thanks for all the work you put in here! It's going to be fun! :-D"
- Engin
Dec 3, 2000.


Index
Importance of the Event in order to predict the Oscar Nominees

Most Important Event
More Important Event
Important Event
Less Important Event
Least Important Event

November 2008
Nov  30 Satellite Award Nominations
Every nomination in the Drama categories : 1 point.

The nominees for Best Comedy Or Musical receive only 0.375 points, unless the film is nominated for director or has a WGA nomination (then it's 1 point again)

A nomination in the other Comedy categories is worth only 0.375 points, unless the comedy is nominated for director (then it's 1 point).

The nominees for Best Animated (or Mixed Media) Picture receive no points, unless the film is nominated for director (then it's 1 point).

Satellite Page

December 2008
Dec  4 National Board of Review Awards
Winners : 3 points.

Every film in the NBR Top 5 : 2 points.

The other films in the NBR Top 10 (6-10) receive 2 points only if they win an important award. (Important awards are: director, actor, actress and screenplay)

The producer of the film that won best director receives 1.5 points extra. (With the producer, I mean the points for that film in the category 'Best Picture')

The screenwriter of the Best Picture Winner gets 2 points extra.

The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra.

The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Film receive 0.8 points.

NBR Page

Dec  6 European Film Awards
Winners: 1.5 points

The Director of the Best European Film receives 1.5 points extra.

The People's Choice Awards and the screenplay award are not taken in consideration

EFA Page

Dec  9 L.A. Film Critics Association Awards
Winners : 3 points, first runners-up : 2 points.

The producer of the film that won best director receives 1.5 points extra.

The screenwriter of the Best Picture Winner gets 2 points extra.

The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra.

The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Language Film receive 0.8 points.

LAFCA Page

Dec  10 New York Film Critics Circle Awards
Winners : 3 points, first runners-up : 2 points.

The producer of the film that won best director receives 1.5 points extra.

The screenwriter of the Best Picture Winner gets 2 points extra.

The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra.

The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Film receive 0.8 points.

NYFCC Page

Dec  11 Golden Globes Nominations
Every nomination in the Drama categories : 2 points.

The nominees for Best Comedy Or Musical receive only 0.75 points, unless the film is nominated for director or has a WGA nomination (then it's 2 points again)

A nomination in the other Comedy categories is worth only 0.75 points, unless the comedy is nominated for director (then it's 2 points).

The directors of the films nominated for screenplay get 2 points, the producers get 1.

If a film is nominated for screenplay, but not for best film (drama or comedy), the screenwriter receives 1 point extra.

If a director has a Golden Globe nomination, and he was never before nominated for an Oscar, then the producer gets 2 points extra.

In the supporting categories: actors and actresses who were nominated for an Oscar in the past but never won (for acting), receive 2 points extra. This does not apply for leading roles.

GG Page

Dec  14 Satellite Awards Ceremony
Winners : 1.5 points instead of their previous GS nomination points.

The winners of the leading actor and actress in a Comedy Or Musical receive only 0.8 points, unless the comedy is nominated for director (then it's 1.5 points).

The winner of the Best Animated (or Mixed Media) Picture receive no points, unless the film is nominated for director or has a WGA nomination (then it's 1.5 points).

The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra.

The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Film receive 0.8 points.

GS Page

Dec  15 Chicago Film Critics Association Award
Each nomination : 1 point.

Winners of the best promising actor and/or actress receive 1 point extra, if they are also nominated in the best acting categories (actor/actress, leading/supporting)

Chicago Page

Dec  15 Southeastern Film Critics Association
Winners : 1.5 points.

Every film in the SFCA Top 5 : 1 point.

The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra.

The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Film receive 0.8 points.

SFCA Page

Dec  15 San Diego Film Critics Society Awards
Winners : 1.5 points.

The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra.

The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Language Film receive 0.8 points.

SDFCS Page

Dec  17 Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Winners : 1.5 points.

The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Film receive 0.8 points.

Dallas Page

Dec  18 Screen Actors Guild - Award Nominations Announced
Each nominated actor : 4 points (8 points for foreign language films)

In the leading categories: the score of every leading actor/actress who isn't nominated for the SAG (individual awards only) nor the Golden Globes, and never received an Oscar nomination before gets divided by 3.3.

In the supporting categories:
1. Every supporting actor/actress who was nominated for the Golden Globes and the SAG-Ensemble Award, but was never before nominated for an Oscar, receives 2 points extra

2. the score of every supporting actor/actress who wasn't nominated for the Golden Globes nor the SAG (via an individual or an ensemble award), gets divided by 3.3, unless they profit by The Meryl Streep Rule.

The producers of the Best Ensemble nominees receive 3 points, the directors 1 point.

Leading actors/actresses of the Best Ensemble nominees, who were nominated for an Oscar in the past but never won (for acting), receive 2 points extra. This does not apply for supporting roles.

Also take a look at The Formula's Most Important Rule

SAG Page

Dec  18 Florida Film Critics Circle Awards.
Winners : 1.5 points.

The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra.

The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Film receive 0.8 points.

Florida Page

January 2009
Jan  2 Entertainment Weekly's Annual Oscar Nominee Predictions
The 'For Your Considerations' are worth 1 point.

EW Page

Jan  3 National Society of Film Critics Awards
Winners : 1.5 points, first runners-up : 1 point.

The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra.

The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Film receive 0.8 points.

NSFC Page

Jan  5 Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations
Nominees : 1 point.

OFCS Page

Jan  5 Producers Guild of America - Award Nominations
Each nominated producer : 4 points (8 points for foreign language films)

The directors of the nominated films receive 1 point.

Also take a look at The Formula's Most Important Rule

PGA Page

Jan  6 American Society of Cinematographers Award Nominations
If there is a tie within the formula then the movie with the most guild award nominations takes precedence.

(If you want to predict the Oscar nominees for Best Cinematography, than this is a very important event!)

ASC Page

Jan  7 Writers Guild of America - Award Nominations
Each nominated screenwriter : 4 points (8 points for foreign language films)

If a film is nominated for both the WGA and the PGA, then the producers receive 1 point, and the directors 2 points.

If a film has no other Guild Nomination, the screenwriter receives 1 point extra (other Guilds are: PGA, DGA, SAG, ASC, ACE, CAS, ADG, CDG)

Every producer and director whose film isn't nominated for the WGA, looses 0.8 points.

Also take a look at The Formula's Most Important Rule

WGA Page

Jan  7 People's Choice Awards
Favorite Motion Picture Winner: 1.5 points

Other awards are not taken in consideration.

PCA Page

Jan  8 Directors Guild of America - Award Nominations
Each nominated director : 4 points (8 points for foreign language films)

The screenwriters of the nominated films receive 4 points.

If a film is nominated for both the DGA and the PGA, then the producers receive 2 points.

If a film is nominated for the DGA, but not for the PGA, then the producers receive 4 points.

If a film is nominated for the PGA, but not for the DGA, then the screenwriters receive 2 points.

If a filmis nominated for both the WGA and the DGA, then the producers receive 2 points, and the directors 1 point.


Also take a look at The Formula's Most Important Rule

DGA Page

Jan  8 Broadcast Film Critics Association : Award Ceremony
Winners : 3 points, first Runners-up: 2 points.

Every Film in the BFCA Top 10 who wins an important award receives 2 points. (Important awards are: director, actor, actress and screenplay)

The screenwriter of the Best Picture Winner gets 2 points extra.

The producer of the film that won best director receives 1.5 points extra.

The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra.

The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Language Film receive 0.8 points.

BFCA Page

Jan  8 Cinema Audio Award Nominations
If there is a tie within the formula then the movie with the most guild award nominations takes precedence.

CAS Page

Jan  9 Art Directors Guild Award Nominations
If there is a tie within the formula then the movie with the most guild award nominations takes precedence.

ADG Page

Jan  11 Golden Globes Ceremony
Winners : 3 points instead of their previous GG nomination points.

The winners of the leading actor and actress in a Comedy Or Musical receive only 1 point, unless the comedy is nominated for director (then it's 3 points).

The screenwriter of the Best Picture Drama Winner receives 2 points extra.

The producer of the film that won best director receives 1.5 points extra.

The director of the Best Picture - Drama Winner receives 1.5 points extra.

The producers of the films that won best actor, actress and screenplay receive 1 point extra

The directors of the films that won best drama actor, drama actress and screenplay receive 1 point extra

The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra.

The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Film receive 0.8 points.

GG Page

Jan  12 American Cinema Editors - Eddie Nominations
The producers and directors of the nominated films in the drama category get 2 points.

The screenwriters of the nominated foreign language films receive 2 points extra.

ACE Page

Jan  14 Costume Designers Guild Nominations
If there is a tie within the formula then the movie with the most guild award nominations takes precedence.

CDG Page

Jan  15 BAFTA Award Nominations (U.K.)
Each nomination : 1 point.

Foreign language films in regular categories get 2 points instead of 1.

BAFTA Page

Jan  15 Online Film Critics Society Awards
Winners : 1.5 points instead of their previous OFCS nomination points.

The producer and director of the best screenplay winner(s) receive 0.8 points extra.

The producer, director and screenwriter of the winning Foreign Language Film receive 0.8 points.

OFCS Page

Jan  17 The End of Sijmen's Oscar Experiment
Jan  22 ACADEMY AWARD NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCEMENT
Jan  23 Evaluation of Sijmen's Oscar Experiment
Jan  24 Producers Guild Awards
Jan  25 Screen Actors Guild Awards
Jan  31 Directors Guild Awards
February 2009
Feb  7 Writers Guild Awards
Feb  8 BAFTA Awards (U.K.)
Feb  14 Art Directors Guild Awards
Feb  14 Cinema Audio Awards
Feb  15 American Cinema Editors - Eddie Awards
Feb  15 American Society of Cinematographers Awards
Feb  17 Costume Designers Guild Awards
Feb  22 ACADEMY AWARDS CEREMONY


General Rules
  • The Formula's Most Important Rule: The scores of the producers and directors get divided by 2.5 unless... More info

  • The Leading Rule: the score of every leading actor/actress who isn't nominated for the SAG (individual awards only) nor the Golden Globes, and never received an Oscar nomination before gets divided by 3.3.

  • The Supporting Rule: the score of every supporting actor/actress who wasn't nominated for the Golden Globes nor the SAG (via an individual or an ensemble award), gets divided by 3.3, unless they profit by The Meryl Streep Rule.

  • The Meryl Streep Rule: An actor or actress who won an Oscar in the past (for an acting performance), and has two points or more from at least two awards (wins or nominations) , receives 2 points extra. More info

  • The Julianne Moore Rule: If a Person wins an award for several films, then he or she receives NO points.

  • The Courtney Love Rule: If a performance gets awarded in the wrong category (e.g. best supporting actress, while there is a hughe oscar campaign going on for best leading actress) then the perfomance gets 0.8 points (awards with 2 stars or more) or 0.4 points (awards with 1 star) in the campaigned category, and none in the wrong category.

  • How The Final Scores Are Calculated:
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