Since May '99
アトランティックシティ・ブラックジャック必勝法
HOW TO BEAT ATLANTIC CITY BLACKJACK

Part1:基本

Blackjackの初心者のために

Blackjackの基本的な目的は，カードの合計が21以下でディラーより大きい値を得る．または，ディラーがバースト(21より大きい）の時にはバーストしないことである．アトランティックシティでは，基本戦略を使って，ハウスエッジを-0.45%まで減らすことが可能である（レイトサレンダーが許される時には，-0.40%）；これは，カードカウンティングを行なわない場合のベストなプレイ方法である．また，アトランティックシティでは，すべてのカードは，表を上に配られる（プレイヤーはカードに触ってはいけない）．ソフトハンドとは，エースがあって，エースを11と数えても21を超えない手のことである．また，ハードハンドとは，エースを11と数えるとバーストする手のことである．

インシュランスは，元のベットの半分まで賭けられるサイドベットである．これは，ディラーのアップカードがエースの時に，ラウンドの最初に賭ける事が出来る．そして，インシュランスはディラーがBlackjackの時に2倍払われる．しかし，カウントしないプレイヤーはインシュランスをすべきではない．

アリーサレンダーとは，カードが配られた時点で勝負をあきらめ，ベットした金額の半分を差し出すことである．レイトサレンダーも同じであるが，この場合は，ディーラがブラックジャックの場合はサレンダーできない．サレンダーをするには，単に「サレンダー」とディラーにいえば良い．

Splitting can be done only on your first two cards in Atlantic City. You push out a bet equal to your original, the dealer splits the cards apart and deals a card to the first one, which you play normally except that you can't resplit, and then the dealer deals a card to the second one, which again you play normally without resplitting.

Doubling can be done on any two cards. You push out a bet equal to your original, and you will receive exactly one more card.

Standing versus hitting is the most common and important decision. To hit you tap the table or draw your fingers towards you. Standing is indicated by a waving motion parallel to the table.

About Atlantic City

All Atlantic City casinos use the same rules, except when they get special permission from the Gaming Commission to try something else. Atlantic City rules are no resplitting, split aces get only one card each, double down allowed after split, dealer stands on soft 17, blackjack pays 3 to 2, insurance pays 2 to 1, and 4, 6, or 8 decks are used, but you will find only 8 decks for less than $25 minimums. Until recently the absolute lowest minimums were $5, but now the Taj Mahal offers $3 tables during the day on weekdays. Late surrender was found only at the Claridge until recently, when Trump Plaza announced that it is offering it too. It is unlikely that early surrender will ever be offered again, because the casinos lost so much money when it was offered that the Gaming Commission declared a state financial crisis (or some such) in order to get rid of it and protect this source of New Jersey tax revenue.

Help for the aspiring card counter

I recommend Stanford Wong's book, "Professional Blackjack" as a reference on the High-Low counting system; it is finally out as a paperback after 9 years of being a hardback. I also recommend Humble's "The World's Best Blackjack Book", which focuses on the Hi-Opt I counting system but which has lots of general information that any card counter should know, though the authors of this book are a little too paranoid about getting cheated. Hi-Opt I and High-Low counts are very similar, but I feel that High-Low is marginally better for most players. More advanced counts do exist (using more numbers than -1, 0, and +1), but they offer very little theoretical gain coupled with an increased chance for errors. Most professional card counters use High-Low or Hi-Opt I. An additional reference containing useful tables of information is "Fundamentals of Blackjack" by Chambliss & Rogenski. For example, they give a table that shows the effects of various rules on basic strategy expectation for 1, 2, 4, 6, or 8 decks.

Here is how you do the High-Low count. Initialize running count to zero at start. Add one for each 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 you see and subtract one for each 10 or Ace you see. Divide running count by estimated number of unseen decks to get true count used in the strategy adjustment table. The strategy adjustment table is just a minor refinement; you get most of the benefit of counting from bet size variation, and you should do fine if you avoid strategy adjustments at first.

The Kelly Criterion is a betting heuristic that minimizes your chance of going broke while maximizing your long-run profits, and for Atlantic City, this heuristic dictates that you should bet approximately (TC*0.5 - 0.5)*.0077*BR, where TC is the True Count and BR is your BankRoll (i.e., how much money you've got on you.)

On games with large numbers of decks, it is absolutely imperative that you abandon the table when the count goes negative. How negative? That's a personal decision and depends on your betting spread (difference between your lowest bet and your highest), but I would advise leaving eight deckers when the count hits -1.

You should only take insurance if the TC is above +3 (more precisely, +2.8 for four decks, +3.0 for six decks, and +3.1 for eight decks). Don't be swayed by what cards you have (i.e., don't fall into the insure-your-blackjack trap); it's a side bet, so only the count matters.

The maximum edge that most card counters claim to attain in practice is about 1.5%. In Atlantic City, you will need about a 1-8 spread (i.e., highest bet is eight times your lowest) to grind out any profit at all. My simulations show a .5% advantage (ratio of winnings to total amount bet) for a 1-8 betting spread, 7 players, -1 to +10 strategy adjustments, and abandoning counts of -1 or worse. If late surrender is available, the edge improves to .66%.

As far as risk goes, a 500 unit bankroll (e.g. $2500 for $5 minimums) has a 81.5% chance of doubling before going broke. If late surrender is available, this improves to 89.3%. You are risking quite a bit to win how much? 0.9 units is the average win per 100 hands; 1.3 units with late surrender. So you could make about $5 an hour or so if you are willing to have more than a 10% chance of losing $2500 before doubling it.

If you want to make money at blackjack, either join a blackjack team or play the single or double deckers in Vegas.

Twenty-one@geocities.com

Last modified: Fri Jun 04 00:33:43 JST 1999

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