Grant's EFHL Update #2

With only six weeks to go in the EFHL regular season, things should get pretty interesting in the battle for the playoffs and then of course in the playoffs themselves. Currently, the middle four teams are all within one game of each other as they battle for two playoff spots.

In my second newsletter, I will review each team's current standing and playoff outlook. I will also take a look at how each team might be affected by any trades that may occur before the NHL trade deadline on March 20.

Tortured Souls

Chris had been rolling along ever since Mario has regained his touch. He had won seven in a row until he hit a slight bump recently with Mario, Modano, and Nedved all missing games. However, he got back on the winning track this past week and is leading the current period by two points over Rick.

He has been fortunate that Mario and the rest of his team has gone through the entire season so far pretty much injury free. And he'll need his guys to remain healthy if he is to make up the 19 points that he trails Rick by.

Most Likely to be Traded: Gary Suter has not really been the Suter of old. However, with offensive defensemen usually being coveted by several teams, he could possibly go to a Stanley Cup contender.

Cougars

Tom's team is hard to figure. Led by Jagr, Francis, and Shanahan, this team should be better. Actually, he is fourth in total points, but at 6-9 is one game out of the cellar, but only one game out of fourth place as well.

Tom has been brought down by his defensemen, which are tied for last in scoring, and his fifth and sixth forwards, Kozlov and Verbeek, who have been disappointments as far as scoring goes. A couple of moves when there were still decent players available could have really helped here. Tom will have to reel off a few wins in a row to be in a position to make the playoffs.

Most Likely to be Traded: It is hard to imagine Theo Fleury not in a Flames' uniform, but he could be traded before too long. Fleury is having trouble dealing with the pressure of being the Flames' leader among a team filled with rookies. He also has experienced some personal problems. A change of scenery may be what is needed here if the Flames can get fair value.

Free Radicals

Brett continues to hang tough despite having to deal with many injuries. He is basically tied for the last playoff spot, but would lose out because of his two ties. (The first tiebreaker is wins.) Brett has endured the most injuries to big name players. Both Lindros and Bourque missed significant time early in the year. In addition, Koivu, who was tied for the NHL scoring lead when he went down, has missed the last couple months or so.

Most Likely to be Traded: For a while, Roman Hamrlik was not on good terms with Lightning management. Although things seem to have quieted down recently, a trade could probably still happen.

Ice Dogs

My team sucks. However, I may be last in total points, but I am, like Brett, basically tied for the fourth spot and would lose out based on my two ties. Both Brett and I would have been better off splitting those two games instead of tying both. At least I was able to end my five game losing streak with our last tie.

So I guess I am thankful that I have any chance at all for the playoffs. Let's take a look at my sorry team. My forwards are second to last in the league in scoring. Only Tony's are (much) worse. However, his defensemen are first in the league. Mine are tied for last. However, if I can get Sakic back soon and Hull and Bure continue to score at an increased pace, I may just make the playoffs.

Most Likely to be Traded: I'd say Coffey, but now that he's on one of the Stanley Cup favorites, I guess he is happy, if that is possible.

Brett Hull is also safe after winning the battle with Keenan. That leaves Steve Duchesne most likely to be traded. The Senators are going nowhere again, and he could help a lot of teams.

12 Monkeys

Tony's team has been interesting to watch this season. I'll bet a lot of us are watching to see if his strategy of loading up on defensemen in the draft is paying off.

The answer for now anyway appears to be no, as he has been slipping down the standings the last few weeks, even after replacing half his forwards recently. However, although sixth in points, he is 8-7 and in third place and has rid himself of some nonproducers. If Federov, Leclair, or one of his high scoring defensemen get hot, he could easily hold his playoff position.

Most Likely to be Traded: Nobody appears high on the trade rumor list, but given the situation in Ottawa, Alexander Daigle may be moving on. The Senators are in a bind, with Yashin and Daigle already making their millions, and Alfredsson making a fraction of that in the last year of his contract. Daigle might be the odd man out.

Beaver Slappers

Rick's team is in first place in total points and both he and Chris have the best record at 10-5. Looking at his roster, there no doubt why. There are no real weaknesses on his roster now that Forsberg has returned from injury. His defense may be a little weak with Zhitnik and almost-World Cup-hero Foote occupying two of four slots. However, his defensemen scoring ranks third in the league, although he is much closer to the bottom than the top.

Most Likely to be Traded: Shortly after acquiring Alexander Mogilny, Rick may see his player moved for real. Mogilny has apparently worn out his welcome in Vancouver.

Plaindrifters

With two wins in a row, Rich has moved into fourth place. He is in third place in total points, 20 behind Chris and 39 behind Rick. While on the surface, it would appear that Rich is getting screwed in his head-to-head matches, the bottom line is his team is inconsistent. He's posted over 50 twice and blown teams out and he's also scored under twenty twice. He'll have to be more consistent to take a shot at the big money for total points.

Rick's playoff chances look pretty decent, as he will most likely win a tiebreaker with any team that he might be tied with.

Most Likely to be Traded: Adam Oates is unhappy in Boston. Let's see if we can guess why. Oh yeah, they suck and could very well miss the playoffs for the first time in almost 30 years. Seems like a good time to piss off management so they trade you. He might end up back in St. Louis, who never should have let him go in the first place.

Fargon Iceholes

Rob's team is 5-10 and has been mired in last place since his seven game losing streak early in the season. Part of this is his own fault. Kariya missed the first month of the season but was not replaced. More recently, Norm Maciver had neck surgery and was out for a couple months. OK, so this injury was not as publicized as Kariya's, but you should wonder when a guy post zero points for ten straight weeks. Most goalies probably got an assist in that period. It's not like Rob is short of moves or anything.

Most Likely to be Traded: In the category of old guys on teams that suck that could help other teams falls Larry Murphy. A similar situation to Suter or Duchesne, Murphy is having a better season scoring-wise.

To conclude, I will make my bold predictions of the outcome of the rest of the EFHL regular season and playoffs. But first, let's review the EFHL calendar and some important rules for down the stretch.

First, we need to add a rule regarding stats. It has happened a couple times this year where, based on the stats from USA Today for two consecutive weeks, a player has had minus one assists for the week. What this probably means is that a player had an assist taken away from him after further review. I guess this could also happen with goals too. What I have done and will continue to do is subtract one assist or goal from the previous week. This can have an affect on a game the week before, although it has not yet.

Also remember that this will only become apparent if a player has an assist or goal taken away from him and then does not record an assist or goal the next week. If he gets an assist taken away from him the prior week and records one assist the next week, then he will show no assists for the current week and his prior stats will remain unchanged. This is because there will generally be no way of knowing an assist was taken away unless you are positive that you saw the player record an assist that week.

What I'm trying to say is that if you win a game by two points or less, it is remotely possible that you could still tie or lose. These stats are not an exact science as I've also noticed minor differences in various stat sites on the web. Anyway, I can't believe I wrote one column on this page on something I'm sure nobody will care about until it affects them, but I at least wanted to mention this.

Here are some important dates:

End of EFHL reg. season: Mon. 3/10
First round of playoffs: March 11 through March 24
EFHL finals: March 25 through end of NHL regular season (April 13)

Fourth period: Jan. 7 through Feb. 10
Fifth period: Feb. 11 through Mar. 10
Sixth period: Mar. 11 though Apr. 13

Important rule: Please be aware that moves can be made effective any Tuesday during the last period even though the only head-to-head action is the playoffs, which will cover more than one week.

EFHL trade deadline: Trades must be completed by 7:30 PM Tuesday, February 25, 1997.

Here is a review of the prize money, for those of us who still have a real shot at some of it: First place total points $ 180
Second place total points 60

Playoff champion 130
Playoff runner up 30

Period winners 40

Here are my final projected regular season standings.

Playoff results:
First round:
Beaver Slappers over Free Radicals
Plaindrifters over Tortured Souls

EFHL Final:
Beaver Slappers over Plaindrifers

Here is my prediction for final total points.

Standings and total points

Player statistics by team:

Player scoring rankings
Schedule
Rules

EFHL Home Page

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