2004 Summer League

	Num	Team	Team Name	Win	Loss
Competitive Division	1	10	Palpatine's Posse	12	0
	2	7	Big Disks	9	3
	3	11	Scurvy Dog	8	3
	4	8	Subsonics	8	4
	5	4	Justice League of America	6	4
	6	13	Tenacious D	7	4
	7	12	Your Mom	7	5
	8	9	Lemon * Jello	6	5
	9	3	Fundamentals	5	6
	10	14	Fishheads	3	9
	11	1	S.O.S	2	8
	12	6	Righteous Harmony Fist	1	8
	13	2	The Flying Squids	1	9
	14	5	Minors in Possession	1	8
Spirited Division	1	29	Westwinded	9	2
	2	23	Homegrown	8	3
	3	22	Fighting Chipmunks	6	3
	4	21	Dudes & Dudettes	7	4
	5	24	Stuffed Animals	6	4
	6	28	Ultimately Irresponsible	6	5
	7	26	New Dogs Old Tricks	3	7
	8	25	Intergalactic Alliance	2	6
	9	20	Defenestrators	2	9
	10	27	Turbo Slugs	1	7

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Computer Rankings

	Num	Team	Team Name	Rating
Competitive Division	1	10	Palpatine's Posse	14.60
	2	11	Scurvy Dog	12.66
	3	8	Subsonics	11.82
	4	7	Big Disks	10.80
	5	13	Tenacious D	9.85
	6	12	Your Mom	9.60
	7	4	Justice League of America	9.48
	8	9	Lemon * Jello	8.87
	9	3	Fundamentals	8.65
	10	14	Fishheads	5.88
	11	1	S.O.S	5.76
	12	6	Righteous Harmony Fist	4.21
	13	2	The Flying Squids	4.19
	14	5	Minors in Possession	3.03
Spirited Division	1	29	Westwinded	11.37
	2	23	Homegrown	10.02
	3	22	Fighting Chipmunks	9.99
	4	21	Dudes & Dudettes	9.47
	5	24	Stuffed Animals	9.20
	6	25	Intergalactic Alliance	8.98
	7	28	Ultimately Irresponsible	8.21
	8	26	New Dogs Old Tricks	7.58
	9	20	Defenestrators	5.56
	10	27	Turbo Slugs	4.83

Rankings are based on published results and only apply within a division. They only represent the strength of teams based solely on past performance, and no-show games are excluded. The ratings are relatively poor predictors because the presence/absence of key players can significantly alter the outcome.

The methodology is: Every team has a strength variable. For each outcome of a game, a simple and rather arbitrary formula is used to quantify the probability of the winning team winning again if another game is played with the exactly the same conditions and personnel. The probability formula is (winning score + 5) / (winning score + losing score + 5). This value is then compared with a predicted probability based on the difference in strength for both teams. The predicted probability is defined as the standard normal cumulative distribution function of (winner strength - loser strength). Now the difference between the game result probability and the predicted probabilty is the error. A least sum square fit of all the errors for each game is performed with each team's strength as an independent variable. The outcome are the strength ratings for each team that minimize the errors between predicted and actual performance. Finally, the strength ratings are scaled to about 0-15 points.