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Frank Drake, an American astronomer made an equation to find the probability of finding aliens in our galaxy. The probability of humans finding extraterrestrial intelligence in our galaxy equals Nfpnef1fifcfL, where N equals the number of stars in the Milky Way, fp equals the fraction of those stars having planets, ne equals the number of those planets that can support life, f1 equals the number of those planets on which life arises, fi equals the fraction of those planets on which intelligent life evolves, fc equals the fraction of those planets where intelligent life developed into a technologically advanced civilization and fL equals the fraction of time a technical civilization lasts. Drake's equation is beautiful, meaningless mathematics. It does not come close to solving the question of the existence of extraterrestrials because it has so many variables that we cannot imagine what they stand for.
I feel there must be extraterrestrial intelligence. Even if not in our galaxy, in the universe somewhere. Someone once said, "Absence of proof, is not proof of absence." I think he is correct. While we do not know that aliens exist, we do not that they do not exist. Considering the many UFO sightings, most of them are probably conjured, but at least one had to have really happened because the idea is too crazy to be thought of out of nowhere. Some scientists argue that the chances of alien intelligence are slim since the circumstances that produced life were all just strange coincidences, all the same circumstances happening somewhere else is extremely unlikely. I think it is just arrogance to assume we are the only intelligent life in the universe.
If we do not have the technology to find aliens or to travel to an alien world, I do not think we should assume that they will. Though we know a lot about radio astronomy, the problem that is stopping the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (better known as SETI) from finding anyone is the vastness of space. The chance of us pointing our telescopes at the right point in the universe at the right time is astronomical. The chance of aliens finding us is just as bad. If life on Alpha Centauri, the closest star to our solar system, found us and sent a message, traveling at the speed of light, we would not receive it for four and one half years. Then, it would take another four and one half years for our reply to reach them. The distances make communication while on our home worlds nearly impossible.
Even if aliens came to Earth, they could have ships that cannot be found with our tracking devices. If I was an extraterrestrial, and saw the problems on Earth, I would take my ship and leave as soon as possible. I would never go near a race still killing each other over stupid things. I do not think we can start our search for extraterrestrial intelligence in earnest until we can live in harmony as humans.
Most people do not realize what we are sending to outer space. Every second, we send many television signals everywhere, traveling at the speed of light, and they are strong enough to be found anywhere in space. We send so many signals, humans are "polluting" outer space. The first "message" they would receive would be of the 1936 Olympics, since that was the first television signal strong enough to go very far. If they take television as fact, and their mothers are not there to tell them not to believe everything they see on TV, then their picture of Earth is extremely distorted. I certainly do not want the popular sitcoms of today being our first contact with another society.
Humans always seem to expect alien life to be carbon based humanoids. I do not think the world accept extraterrestrials that are not little green men. Life in other galaxies could be silicon based, look like blobs, be microscopic, or even be sentient machines.
Their ships might be something more than we thought possible. They are probably not powered with solid rocket boosters, but something more exotic like telekinesis or antimatter. The minds of everyone in a civilization that uses telekinesis for transport, are probably very advanced. It might even be beyond their capabilities to think down to our level, or ours to think up to theirs. If antimatter is used as a source of propulsion, then their technology must more advanced then our own. It costs so much money for us to create one particle of antimatter that it is very impractical for us to try to power ships with it. While we might be able to communicate with them, discussing science could be nearly impossible because concepts they would take for granted would be way above our heads and then we would have no basis to build on.
I think that contact with extraterrestrial intelligence will cause more problems than it solves, but we should still keep searching. Who knows, they might have to cure to cancer or AIDS, or be able to solve all our problems.
Please, if you use this paper, be sure to give Lecia Beck credit for her hard work.
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