By Ariel Natan Pasko

The time has finally come for Israel to take the gloves off and start
to hit hard, for real. It's time for Israelis to get over their "Syrian
Syndrome", that irrational deep-seated fear of Syria, dating back to
the Yom Kippur War of 1973.  The Syria of today might not be much
different than the Syria of 1973, but Israel sure the heck is. Israel's
military in 2003 is quite a bit more advanced, Israel's economy - while still
a little slow - is exponentially ahead of Syria's economy. In fact by
every measure of national power, Israel is well beyond Syria, the gap
has grown not shrunk since 1973. So "get over it", Syria is a paper
tiger, or more aptly put a "paper bag", or "basket case".

Even after renewed attacks on Israel, why bother with Hizbollah? Why
play Syria's and Iran's game? Why pretend that Hizbollah is calling the
shots? Why give "immunity" to the real culprits? Put the blame squarely
where it belongs, on Syria. One could try to blame the Lebanese
government for not doing enough to tone down Hizbollah. The Lebanese military
really should take up positions in Southern Lebanon and de-militarize
Hizbollah. Israel has left Lebanese soil. Ask the UN; for once they
support our position and agree with us. But alas, Lebanon is not an
independent state. Lebanon is a puppet regime controlled by Damascus.

So Israel needs to put the blame where it belongs; on the only power
capable of reining in Hizbollah, of dis-arming them, of cutting off their
flow of weapons from Iran, and of discouraging them from attacking
Israel, i.e. Syria. About that last line, Syria uses Hizbollah to keep
pressure on Israel. Hizbollah is Syria's proxy army against Israel. Notice
the Syrian occupation army in Lebanon never attacks Israel. It's always
Hizbollah, so that Syria can't be directly blamed for the attack. Well
I'm saying, forget the small fry, BLAME SYRIA!

First, the Israeli government should make it a cornerstone of it's
foreign policy to raise the issue of Syria' continuing violation of UN
Security Council Resolution 520, that calls on all foreign forces -
including Syria - to leave Lebanon, at every diplomatic opportunity. What a
joke that Syria sits on the UN Security Council, while it violates a
Security Council resolution. No wonder, many people in the United States,
Israel, and elsewhere hold the UN in such low esteem. And, Israel should
more vigorously lobby Washington to "sit-on" Syria, till Syria gets out
of Lebanon. Washington has been wishy-washy in dealing with Damascus.

In the beginning of May, US Secretary of State Colin Powell visited
Damascus and Beirut. After leaving Damascus, he said in a Beirut press
conference that he and Assad discussed "all of the outstanding issues"
that have hindered US-Syrian relations in the past. That included frank
talks about Weapons of Mass Destruction; Syria's support for the Lebanese
group Hizbollah; and closing the Iraq-Syria border "and keeping it
sealed" to technology, fighters and wanted Iraqi authority figures, Powell
said.  He made it clear to Assad, that the US commitment to Middle East
peace "would include Syria and Lebanon, and would include the Golan
Heights." But, Powell made no mention of speaking to Assad about getting
Syria out of Lebanon.

Later, speaking in Beirut - notice not Damascus - Powell assured Prime
Minister Rafik Hariri of US support for "an independent and prosperous
Lebanon free of all - all - foreign forces." But the main focus of
Powell's visit to Syria, it seems, was to prevent them from helping out
Saddam's buddies, to 'give up the goods' i.e. WMD, to stop their support
for terrorist groups - which they haven't - and to soften up their
rejection of US Middle East Peacemaking efforts between Israel and the
Palestinians - the road map - promising the Golan Heights, as a reward for
good behavior, despite Syria's opposition to the US war in Iraq and
despite their facilitation of 'volunteer fighters' to help Saddam. Little
focus was put on getting Syria out of Lebanon and nothing has happened
on that front since Powell's visit.

Yet, on May 2nd - the day before Powell's meeting with Assad - in
Washington, Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)
introduced the Senate version of the Syria Accountability and Lebanese
Sovereignty Restoration Act of 2003 S 982.  The bill's purposes are to
(1) halt Syrian support for terrorism; (2) end the Syrian occupation of
Lebanon; (3) stop Syria's production of Weapons of Mass Destruction; and
(4) hold Syria accountable for the illegal Syrian-Iraqi trade, which
provided Iraq with the weapons that killed American troops. The House
version of the Act was introduced on April 10.  Both bills now have a
solid majority of support in the US Congress. Sponsors and supporters of
the bill claim it will weaken Syria's ability to wage wars, to threaten
its neighbors, and to destabilize the region. So, there clearly is
support for pushing Syria out of Lebanon emanating from the US Congress. 
Israel should remind Washington of that.

Today, after the United State's victory in Iraq, and the inclusion of
Iraqi Shi'ites in the Iraqi governing council, it would be hard for
Hizbollah or Iran to portray the US as out to get the Shi'ites in Lebanon,
just because they oppose Hizbollah. Ending the vicious Syrian
occupation of Lebanon, and dis-mantling Hizbollah as a military force there,
would also serve US and Israeli interests in putting a firm limit to
Iran's influence in the area. This no doubt would have a positive effect in
weakening Islamic Jihad - and to a lesser extent Hamas - in Damascus
and Gaza. Iran is already on the American and Israeli agenda, due to it's
closing in on real nuclear capability. Anything that weakens Iran's
ability to "export" the revolution is good for the region and the world.

Second, in blaming Syria's dictatorial regime for Hizbollah's attacks
on Israel, the Israeli government should announce a new policy, of
retaliatory raids against Syrian military positions in Lebanon. As I stated
earlier, why should Syria be "immune" from the costs of its policies in
support of Hizbollah? After annunciating this change in policy, of
holding Syria accountable for Hizbollah attacks, the Israeli government
should begin a policy of "graduated escalation" beginning with hitting
Syrian positions in Lebanon.

Everyone should remember the beginning of the Lebanon War in 1982, when
Israel warned Syria to stay out of its way, but Syria didn't listen.
When confronted, Israel shot down over 90 Syrian planes with just one
loss. Today, Israel has significantly increased its military superiority
over Syria from 1982. If Syria doesn't stop the Hizbollah attacks and
prepare to end its occupation of Lebanon, the next phase would include
selected targets in Syria itself. This "graduated escalation" would put
the issue of the vicious Syrian occupation of Lebanon - since 1976 - and
their support for Hizbollah terror against Israel on the top of the
American, EU, and UN's agenda.

Israel and the United States have to support a free and independent
Lebanon, free of Syrian occupation, free of Hizbollah terrorism, free to
return to its former glory. It's in Israel's interest, it's in Lebanon's
interest, it's in the United States' interest, and yes, it's even in
the Syrian people's interest.

Ariel Natan Pasko is an independent analyst & consultant. He has a
Master's Degree in International Relations & Policy Analysis.  His articles
appear regularly on numerous news/views and think-tank websites, in
newspapers, and can be read at: www.geocities.com/ariel_natan_pasko

(c) 2003/5763 Pasko