Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will
destroy us
· Secret report warns of
rioting and nuclear war
· Britain will be 'Siberian' in less than 20 years
· Threat to the world is greater than terrorism
Mark Townsend and
Paul Harris in New York
Sunday February 22, 2004
The Observer
Climate change over the next 20 years could result in a
global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters..
A secret report,
suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major
European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a
'Siberian' climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and
widespread rioting will erupt across the world.
The document
predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of
anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling
food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses
that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents.
'Disruption and
conflict will be endemic features of life,' concludes the Pentagon analysis.
'Once again, warfare would define human life.'
The findings
will prove humiliating to the Bush administration, which has repeatedly denied
that climate change even exists. Experts said that they will also make
unsettling reading for a President who has insisted national defence is a
priority.
The report was
commissioned by influential Pentagon defence adviser Andrew Marshall, who has
held considerable sway on US military thinking over the past three decades. He
was the man behind a sweeping recent review aimed at transforming the American
military under Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
Climate change
'should be elevated beyond a scientific debate to a US national security
concern', say the authors, Peter Schwartz, CIA consultant and former head of
planning at Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and Doug Randall of the California-based
Global Business Network.
An imminent scenario
of catastrophic climate change is 'plausible and would challenge United States
national security in ways that should be considered immediately', they
conclude. As early as next year widespread flooding by a rise in sea levels
will create major upheaval for millions.
Last week the
Bush administration came under heavy fire from a large body of respected
scientists who claimed that it cherry-picked science to suit its policy agenda
and suppressed studies that it did not like. Jeremy Symons, a former whistleblower
at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), said that suppression of the
report for four months was a further example of the White House trying to bury
the threat of climate change.
Senior
climatologists, however, believe that their verdicts could prove the catalyst
in forcing Bush to accept climate change as a real and happening phenomenon.
They also hope it will convince the United States to sign up to global treaties
to reduce the rate of climatic change.
A group of
eminent UK scientists recently visited the White House to voice their fears
over global warming, part of an intensifying drive to get the US to treat the
issue seriously. Sources have told The Observer that American officials
appeared extremely sensitive about the issue when faced with complaints that
America's public stance appeared increasingly out of touch.
One even alleged
that the White House had written to complain about some of the comments
attributed to Professor Sir David King, Tony Blair's chief scientific adviser,
after he branded the President's position on the issue as indefensible.
Among those
scientists present at the White House talks were Professor John Schellnhuber,
former chief environmental adviser to the German government and head of the
UK's leading group of climate scientists at the Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research. He said that the Pentagon's internal fears should prove the
'tipping point' in persuading Bush to accept climatic change.
Sir John
Houghton, former chief executive of the Meteorological Office - and the first
senior figure to liken the threat of climate change to that of terrorism -
said: 'If the Pentagon is sending out that sort of message, then this is an
important document indeed.'
Bob Watson,
chief scientist for the World Bank and former chair of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, added that the Pentagon's dire warnings could no
longer be ignored.
'Can Bush ignore
the Pentagon? It's going be hard to blow off this sort of document. Its hugely
embarrassing. After all, Bush's single highest priority is national defence.
The Pentagon is no wacko, liberal group, generally speaking it is conservative.
If climate change is a threat to national security and the economy, then he has
to act. There are two groups the Bush Administration tend to listen to, the oil
lobby and the Pentagon,' added Watson.
'You've got a
President who says global warming is a hoax, and across the Potomac river
you've got a Pentagon preparing for climate wars. It's pretty scary when Bush
starts to ignore his own government on this issue,' said Rob Gueterbock of
Greenpeace.
Already,
according to Randall and Schwartz, the planet is carrying a higher population
than it can sustain. By 2020 'catastrophic' shortages of water and energy
supply will become increasingly harder to overcome, plunging the planet into
war. They warn that 8,200 years ago climatic conditions brought widespread crop
failure, famine, disease and mass migration of populations that could soon be
repeated.
Randall told The
Observer that the potential ramifications of rapid climate change would create
global chaos. 'This is depressing stuff,' he said. 'It is a national security
threat that is unique because there is no enemy to point your guns at and we
have no control over the threat.'
Randall
added that it was already possibly too late to prevent a disaster happening.
'We don't know exactly where we are in the process. It could start tomorrow and
we would not know for another five years,' he said.
'The
consequences for some nations of the climate change are unbelievable. It seems
obvious that cutting the use of fossil fuels would be worthwhile.'
So dramatic are
the report's scenarios, Watson said, that they may prove vital in the US
elections. Democratic frontrunner John Kerry is known to accept climate change
as a real problem. Scientists disillusioned with Bush's stance are threatening
to make sure Kerry uses the Pentagon report in his campaign.
The fact that
Marshall is behind its scathing findings will aid Kerry's cause. Marshall, 82,
is a Pentagon legend who heads a secretive think-tank dedicated to weighing
risks to national security called the Office of Net Assessment. Dubbed 'Yoda'
by Pentagon insiders who respect his vast experience, he is credited with being
behind the Department of Defence's push on ballistic-missile defence.
Symons, who left
the EPA in protest at political interference, said that the suppression of the
report was a further instance of the White House trying to bury evidence of
climate change. 'It is yet another example of why this government should stop
burying its head in the sand on this issue.'
Symons said the Bush
administration's close links to high-powered energy and oil companies was vital
in understanding why climate change was received sceptically in the Oval
Office. 'This administration is ignoring the evidence in order to placate a
handful of large energy and oil companies,' he added.