Beyond 2000
Population:
Problem of an aging Population;
Fertility in Turkey has declined over the last two decades . Turkey has now left behind the period of rapid population growth and population grwth rate will definitely continue to decline further. No set of policies or measures can induce the population to increase at a faster pace from now on.The population rate may even fall zero or to negative values.
The projections for the population is highly realated with the decline in population growth rate and international immigration. Below a possible population diagram show for year 2000s
1990 2000 2010 2020
0-4 6610 6586 6640 6668
5-14 13328 13149 13175 13278
20-24 5181 6612 6611 6552
15-64 34022 43440 51808 57994
65+ 2243 3659 4655 6494
TOTAL 56203 66834 76278 84434
Source:State Institute of Istatistics.
With the size of the population tending to stabilase during the first quarter of the 21st century , the structure of the Turkish population will rapidly change. The young population will not increase during the next 30 years. The share of the young population within the total poulation will progressively decrease over the future decades. Turkey will in the long run cease tobe a country with young population
This means a progresssively growing potential labor force and labor supply.
However the most stricking aspect of the process of structural ageing of the population is that the number and share of those over the age of 65 will extraordinary pace during the next two or three decades.
Progress of depandency ratio duri ng the projection period:
1990 0.65
2000 0.54
2010 0.47
2020 0.46
2025 0.45
This means that "economic burden" on the active population will be alleviated. The share of children and youths within this dependent population will gradually decline and the share of the eldery will rise ,aging as a result of the decline of fertelity.
90-95 00-05 10-15 20-25
Population(thousand) 58861 69230 78382 86205
Births(thousand) 1385 1364 1358 1353
Deaths(thousand) 396 448 535 638
CFR(per mille) 23.5 19.7 17.5 15.7
Population Growth rate(per mille) 16.8 14.9 10.9 8.3
Source:State Institute of Istatistics
The decline in crude birth rate will cause;
The problem in education is no longer a quantitative one. The real problem has long ceased to be one realated to the number of schools ,education spending or mere monetary size of educational investment. The real problem will be that of educational quality and regional distribution. What will receive priority will be to provide children and youths that type of education that is needed for raising Turkey to the levek of developed countries rather than to have a growing number of children in education system.
The number of deaths will steadily decrrease over next 25 years.Life expactancy at birth whichwaz 68.5 during the year 1995-2000 period will gradually increase and will at around 74.5 years during the 2020-2025 period.
The rate of population growth will also decline -unles there is a considerable inretnetional immigration. The rate of population growth which was 1.68% between 1990-1995 will fallto 1.49% between 1995-2000 and to 0.83 between 2020-2025
Big citie grow by migration rather than births. So it is highly risky yo make projections amog this.
Estimations of populations for the year 2000;
(million)
Istanbul 8.97
Ankara 3.04
Izmir 2.29
Adana 1.22
Bursa 1.21
GAziantep 0.87
KOnya 0.66
The average family size in Tukey exhibits certain download trend in the long run.
Average fam,ly size in Turkey
1968 5.50
1983 5.32
1988 4.82
1989 4.68
1990 4.97
1993 4.50
Source :Hacettepe Univercity
With a non-linear,log-linaer regression model an estimate can be achieved as follows;
Year Population(million) Household size Number of Hose holds(million)
2000 66.834 4.44 15.05
2010 76.278 4.13 18.47
2025 88.014 3.70 23.78
Urbanisation:
The share of urban population within the total reached 65% while the rate of growth of urban population dropped to 2.9%.. The share of urban population within the total will continue to increase. This factor alone implies that the proess of urganisation of T urkish society in 21st century will be much different from those of the past.
New Urbanisation dynamics;
Today unauhorized buildings,which no longer can be called shanties , are from the outset constructed as multi-storey building, mainly by groups other than users. .Shanty town development has acquired beyond that of finding shelter in the city and has become an Instrument in the fierce battle rto appropriate the urban economic rent.
% 1985 1990 1997 2009
Proviences with intense economic activities 34.4 34.5 34.3 33.8
Proviences whose intensity of economic activities roughly corresponds to their population densities 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.8
Proviences with apopulation surplus(Group1 ) 48.6 49.5 50.2 51.6
Proviences with apopulation surplus(Group2) 12.7 11.8 11.4 10.7
TOTAL 100 100 100 100
Source:State Institute of Statistics and Estimatitons
The projections shows that significant portion of population will be concentrated in a narrow section of national territory. Larger cities are likely to face the pressure of internal migration during the next 15 years. It seems that there will be important concentration of population to the south of Bolu-Içel axis .
During a rapid process of rural out-migration , the basic concern was to solve the problems faced by rural immigrants in cities while quantitative problems created by urbanisation did not receive much attention.
The share of urban population is likely to rise from 65% to 85% in 25-30 years .
After 1980 regional development dynamics have create some emerged areas which have developed outside the state control.The most characteristic of these areas is presence of cheap and abundant labor force which ofered them advantages enabling a rapid process of development.Turkey'sregional adminstrative structure is not competible with the flexilbility required for global relationship.Local government need to be restructured a new municipal understanding of municipal government, a new style must be established.
The need to restructure local governments seems to be an urgent task for cities like Istanbul that carries great importance in global relationship.Ankara is one of the cities that entered aperiod of stagnation..
The rural-urban dischotomy will gradually devoid of meaning and will cease to be a dichotomy ,especially in Aegean and Marmara regions. Also in southeast and eastern region the improvement by the Southerneast Project (GAP) must be supported by an improvement in human resourses and the strategy of growth .
Turkey is about to leave the period of abundant and unskilled ,hence cheap labor supply .We must also point out that the attempt to find a place in global network of relations with the advantages offerred by chesp labor suuply invoves risks. But if Turkey aim to promote its position from peripheral country to a central one must seek new forms of relationship between capital and labor.
The slowing down of urban expansion and transition to a new process of urbanisation will necessitate a large-scale restructuring in the construction sector ,which has become a primary sector by high rate of immigrationfrom rural to urban areas. The construction sector will have to head for maintanance-repair-renovation activities.
In the first decade of the new century the Turkish cities will be faced with many problems .It will not be possible to seek solutions to these problems with the forms of intervention and political styles of the past. A new style of urban democracy will have to be established .
The demographic structure:
Unorganised Society and Infomal Relations; The existing instituional arrengements were adequate for astste-society relationship peculiar to the structure of a sparsely populated traditional society with alow rate of urbanisation . However, social and individual implications of this sort of solidaristic relationships greatly vary depending upon the presence of formal institutional arrengements. Informal solidarisitc relationship are expanding their base and taking strong roots in an environment in which values and structures peculiar to unorganised traditional societies are retained. The unorganised structure of the society leads to a failure in human rights and demacracy issues.People can not represent themselfes easly .
Family; It is known that 'family and kinship' relationships serve almost all of the functions relating to the social organisation and hence constitute the most important social structure as a multi-functional instutition.
'Family and kinship' relationships retain their importance in everyay life routine in cities and are even encumbered with additional functions in an expanded sphere. In particular , in the process of migration urbanisation which involves a multifaceted change the tasks undertaken by this institution have a far wider scope than that of traditonal fanily and kinship relationships and therefore will have very different implications.
Second generation shantytown youth; The first generation of migrants had their process of socialisation within 'traditional Family and kinship relationship' and they brought the skills and values they acquired in that environment to the urban environment .It is obvious that the second generation children and young people who grow up in the tense environment of shantytown development will have a poisiton quite different from their parents. Life in the shantytowns is not similiar with the urban or rural areas. It is built on constant struggle and occasional conflict . It shoud be perceived that problems that prove to be too heavy a burden on families cannot be solved through 'police' measures, and immediate steps should be taken to build effective and high quality education and social service instutitions needed by children and young people living in these neighbourhoods
The problem of adult and elderly population; As the population of young people not increase ,the resourses to be allocated to and arrengements to be introduced in favour of chiidren and young people should be designed soberly so that they can contribute to the improvement of the quality of life.
The sitiuation of pensioners receives attention only when they are seen waiting in long queues to receive their pension. It is obvious that the sitiuation of this population group ,who retired from the working life at an early age due to the possibilities of early entitlement topension and under pressure of young population , depend on their past savings .The reform of pension system carries importance at this respect. Professional instutitions need to be develope for the elderly population Also with the urbanisation process of the population the taking care of the elderly peolple with their families will decrease.This would increase the number o pensioner immediately.
Cultural groupes and ethnic relations;Global tendencies whose signs are observed in our society too cause relationships between different cultures to increase , render local cultured groups identifiable and nake the issue of 'cultural identity' one of the major themes of our days.
Research studies conducted in certain socities that have undregone an intense process of migration show that cultural identity by itself does not lead to conflict emerges only in the circumstances of discrimination.That is to say those groups that have sufferred systematic discrimination due to their cultural identities are transformed into ,'ethnic groups'
The development of concrete policies towards building a society which distinguishes 'national identity'from 'nationalism' and 'cultural identity ' from 'ethnicism' defines 'national identity ' on the
basis of civil and political rights and duties ; and perceives 'cultural identities' as cultural identity plus pluralism. There are benefits to be derived from the rapid development of secular and formal instutition and opportunies of organisation and solidarity ,which will hinder 'the process of organisation into communities'.
Labor and Unempoyment
Rising Returns to Skill; In the developed countries , a dominant feature of the labor markets of the past two decades was the rising wage inequality between high and low qualified workers. The technology and the incease of service sector share in labor force the importance of skilled labor increased.
On the supply side ; 40%-45% of Turkish labor force is in the aggriculture sector , mst of this empolyment is in the form of unpaid family labor. Aggricultural subsisidies help keep this people in this rural areas.
On the demand side ; Manufacturing employment is expected for a short while to rise moderately and then settle at the present day levels of around 20% or less .Services are then the key to employment . Turkish manufacturing sector value added grew at an average arte of 10% between 1981-1995 ,whereas employment growth rate was 3%. The Aggricultural productivity is low in Turkey. This inhibits growth in the non-aggricultural sector. It is cheaper to to keep a person in rural sector then it is to accommodate him in the city. Employment crestion cost and urban infrastructural requirements are higher than subsidasing aggriculture.
Global trends and Turkish dynamics combine and call for an increased income inequality in the near future.
As to the sectoral distribution of employment , manufacture has been losing ground because of labor saving technological developments , and relstively low paying service sector has been picking up the slack .A direct consequence of manufacturing decline is the trend for the deunioniastion .
It is obvious that manufactorin employment will clearly not the sector that absorb the labor supply in the long run.
Unemployment will rise in Turkey .It will peak around 2010then will fall as demographic pressures start to ease. Male total unemployment will reach presr-ent day EU averages .The rate of 30-35% for women unemployment is not suprising ,cause it already is the figure observed in young urban females.
The rise in unemployment is avoidable.The key in to long term competitiveness is indusputaly the rise in productivity . Utilising unused capacity or increasing the level of employment will eventually prove to be adead end . Incresing productivity would have possitive net effect on employment if the foreign demand keep increasing for Turkish products.
The problem here is not whether Turkey should increase its production technology levels or not.It is ,in ten years rate of growth in employment will be less than the growth of the lanor supply. The cost will be paid in terms of unemployment.
Aggricultural subsdies keep an unussuallyhigh portion of labor force in aggriculture. This helps Turkey to incrementally cope with the problems associated with the rapid urbanisation.
An appropriate solution for Turkey maybe gradually decline in aggricultural subsidies and changing their composition . One subsidese either quantity or price.But Turkey has been doing both ;whateve rprodudced has been bought ta governmental determined high prices.Conditional subsisidies focusing on the production technologies and qualityof the product may be enforced instead In related manner , procesed food can be subsidised.
Empolyment Policy Suggestions;
Encouraging Entrepreneurs;Reducing cost of employment and establising venture capital institutions, are some main topics for encouraging them.These would make labor market more flexible ,reduces informal employment and possitevely effect production.
Young unemployed and occupational traning programs; Unemployed are usually the least skilled portion of workforce. Occupational traning programs along wiyh an increase in quantity and quality of vocational schools will effect employment opportunities possitevely.
Investment in education
Flexible working hours
Easing employment regulations;The choice in labor market is the one between lower wages -higher employment and higher wages-lower employment and the economical reality cannot come up with a third one.
Increntives for workers;Regulations to safeguard the rights of the workers in a satisfactory manner are absulutely indispensible.
Predicted employment paterns for Turkey;
Men (000) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Dist 95 Dist 2025
Aggriculture 4644 5074 4975 5126 5260 5366 5464 5519 35 23
Industury 3298 3782 4453 4989 5589 6250 6935 7694 26 33
Services 5096 5597 6409 7097 7797 8567 9412 10341 39 44
Women (000)
Aggriculture 4466 4805 4102 4021 3933 3836 3729 3619 75 41
Industury 447 577 675 768 877 1007 1157 1335 9 15
Services 749 1000 1283 1599 1993 2483 3095 3856 16 44
Source:State Institute of Statistics and Estimatitons
Labor force participation rates by age ;
% Male
15-24 25-54 55-64 65+
Actual /1990 72 94 61 31
1995 60 93 61 33
Predicted /2000 62 94 62 29
2005 60 94 61 26
2010 57 93 60 24
2015 56 93 58 21
2020 54 93 58 19
2025 53 93 57 17
% Female
15-24 25-54 55-64 65+
Actual /1990 39 36 27 9
1995 35 34 27 12
Predicted /2000 38 39 21 8
2005 38 40 19 7
2010 39 42 18 6
2015 39 43 17 6
2020 40 45 16 5
2025 41 47 16 4
Source:State Institute of Statistics and Estimatitons
In each occupation and industy cell,except service jobs in finance, women get get paid less than men on average .Also finance and services empolyment for women comprise 40% of total women wage salary empolyment,whereas men is one third.
The average wages in service sector is higher than the manufactoring sector's.
Primary school level education is clearly not the required level of skill for even the lower tier of the white color occupations that should provide the increase in employment.
Conclusion:
Turkey needs to increase its human capital stock
Falling labor force participation rates of will start to climb as their education levels go up and urbanization increase ,as they they keep moving of aggriculture
Turkey is expected to maintain its obvious comparative advantage in textile in the near future .The share of employment is wrong empolyed in this sector, they must be utilised in more sufficient sectors.
Considering the rise of services Turkey will lock itself into one of two paths in employment low wage ,higher employment ; higher wage and lower employment
Economy and Trade:
Stategies;
The 21st cc will be a thougher century fr third world countries , like Turkey. The economic life in the last decade of 20th has changed the overall face of economy around the world . By the collepse of soviet Union and the globalisation trend spears the edges the two sides of the world sharper. As the developed countries get richer the third world become poorer. So at this point Turkey must decide where to stand at this act. We must consider the facts that brought us here and only by than pretend to take action in the fields of lions . In the beginning of the 21st cc Turkey will decide to whether stay at the borrowing ,depending , emerging market or will stay lone , less developed Third world county or either will find a third way.
Turkey first must draw a long term strategy for economic development process.Including;
We must establish long-term strategic targets and think in global and local sessions.
Turkish economy would have to built on competitive advantage goods .
We could be able to create tactics to the countries which we have trade deficit.
In international field Turkey must be come to a position of both as a manufacturer and trader .
An other crutial point is that the new structure of trade and free trade zones had to be efficiently used. The regional cooperation and solidarity issue can not be forgotten.
The regional centre position of Turkey must be protected.
The international fonds usage must be carrifullly madde, mostly on research ,development and educational subjects.
The first , primary investment field be on infrastructure.
The usage of high technology has to be supported.
The opening of Turkish capital and trade marks to international field
The effective usage of Turkish citizens living abroad.
Creating human resources who can illustrate strategies for long terms
The wide support on strategic decisions must be established
The strick protection of logistic posibbilities and land , water, environment and food facilities
Creating energy opportunities would be established
The culture diplomacy must be reflcted to international relitions
The two or more sided law arrengements must take into action
International Relations ;
The curent international relations especially within the neighbour counties are eventually not sufficient. Becasuse of the national security and the previous political reasons this relations seem to stay dark for near future. The five dominant instutitions of the international relations; public and private sector instutitions , non governmental organisations, academic and international organisations are the basic features. The corresponding relations within these instutitions must be efficiently reorganised .
The regional alliance ; the strategical importance of the Turkey has increase by the collepse of the soviet union and the globalisation trend . The regional conflicts and the bad willings cause agreat decline in trade at the line from balkans to the middle east. The Iran-Irak war ,the gulf war,the civil wars in Afhganistan, Checenistan,Azerbaijan ,Bosnia and the or dilemmas in Cyprus make the region the one of the very unstble parts of the world. A country at this region must be vey carefull and consider all the possibilities. This conflicys can open some opportunities for Turkey. The roots of the Turkish state makes thinks easier or worser.
Which means Turkish Republic can not be an ordinary ,passive third world country.
For this reason a stable strong international policy is a key factor . The consistency of the state and its mission prtincipal has already been forgotten by some politicians or directly by governments. This spoiles the trust of the allies or strategic neighbour countries .A serious politics have to avoid from such moves.
The International trust and well being by global vision starts with a stabli,constnat,self-trusted international relation policy. If a country cannot support own ideas or cannot defend its rights and its arguments than can no longer wait the trust from world nations.especially the Cyprus and Northern Iraq issues would be a good exam for Turkish Foreign Ministry. We must exactly defend are hypothesis in every field by every issue , the role of state here is not of Turkish Foreign Ministry but also of others to teach our national thesis among the subject. Even a high schooler going abroad for a visit must defend the think supported by the state . This means a consensus has already been established in the country for a foreigners point of view.
Social and Political Obstractions
Stabilisation in economy starts and takes its power from a stabilised politics. The early success of emerging markets prove this. But the political stability in East Asian and in Latin America has not been achieved by democratic regulations . Also the organised structure of the society brings solidarity with itself. Compare to these countries Turkey has an advantage of a democratic history respectively. So the Eastern Asian model can not be a good example for Turkey. But also there are good examples lie at their tries.
Socia-economic problems and their results ruins our image on international field . This image problem will become more important as the competition among the emerging markets increase and so the trust of the markets. The hot capital can easily flow out by the political instability . Also the interest rates and the availability of the credits take shape by the international rating institutions. These rating institutions decide the ratings mostly on the infrastructure and the stability of the country .
The expectation among the nation of reforms among from law to tax system , social security to education is getting higher. The destiny of the reforms reaches to a new understanding of redescribing the role of state . The establishment of new institutions and the corrections on the former inefficient institutions has become a dominant issue. Depending on the older reforms is no longer possible . the chain of reforms must be completed urgently. Firstly the structural reforms for international trade and adjustment policies .
A clear strategic vision for all state institutions with a huge understanding ;
_. The relations with the private sector and other civil organisations be reorganised;
The national economic council ; Including unions of both capital and labor sides , stock markets etc
_. An independent economic advisors forum; a way to evaluate the improved wise human resources of the nation . this will help the ministers to decide more properly. Tubitak , eximbank , Mit etc employees are effective for this forum.( the main think here is to obtain the structure to keep them independent)
Predictions for economic variables by McGraw-Hill company for year 2010 are;
Average growth rate of 4.6
74-76 milion population
266 billion dollar total GNP
4326 dollar Gnp per person
GNP/Domestic savings as 23.8%
0.74 slide of total world exports(means;115 billion export and 119 billion import)
Sectors rising and declining
Strategical sectors: While preparing the foreign trade and investment policies the current and future situation of the economy, the position of competitors, the technological supriority, the managemant skills and the subvension policies with the geological must be taken in to consider . The stability coceot is the main thing in this case ,too .A strategic sector is once determined carefully and than strickly be supported. Governmental policies mainly shapes the private sector investments mostly. The common part of these strategical sectors are;
Strategical uncertainity, high starting investment costs, technological uncertainity and the subvensions.
As the searches of OECD although there are some changes within the countries there are some sectors that seem to improve much,
Information technologies
Medical Care
The products and services which are not harmfull to environment
Some sectors like computer support, entertainment, cleaning etc which decrease the administrative costs.
Aggriculture and aggricultural industry;
Still 800 million people can not take the initial foods to live efficiently and healthy. The high growth rate of population and the increase in income per person has rises the interst on aggricultural goods.So in the light of this information and the structure of Turkeys' aggricultural sitation we can easily wait this sector to become more profible.But there are some main important diffulties line on this like ; low productivity of capital and labor, subsidies and the aggricultural portfolio.With some improvements on this issues Turkish aggriculture wont waste the oppotunites lie on it.
Tourism;
The time to shift the level up has already come for tourism, the main foreign exchange maintainer of the economy. It is expected that ; the global tourim income will rise to 560 billion dollar with an increase of 4%. As to the 7. Five year development plan the tourim share is to incraese 13.8 billion dollar in year 2000 with 13-17 million tourist visiting to Turkey. This increase is related to the political conditions but an increase is unavoidable.But the problem is to protect the natural and historicalenvironment of Turkey . The quality tourism is more important and Turkey with feasible investment have the potential to reach this target.
The Construction;
Turkey has a great experince on construction and popular firms which have been doing international business for a long time. The comperative advantage is the experience .Instead of a decline in global construction sector,134 bilion dollar in 1981 -115 billion dollar in 1994, the opportunities are still various.
Energy;
As the pressure on the natural resources is getting deeper the scarcity of food, water and energy is getting worse. Urbanisation process and the manufacture development cause a huge need for energy supply. The pulling back from oil based period is to begin in near future. This would create new facilities for non oil producers countries only if they has developed alternative facilities for it. According to this Turkey has far more change than the others with its water, wind and other natural resources. If Turkey could become self satisfaction it would cause a amourmous improve on balance of payments.
Defence and Military ;
Half of the US economy is currently based on defence supplies sector. This is a good referance for a Nato member country. The Turkish Military Force with its 800.000 personal and 150 billion dollar expenditure capacity for next 25 period is a primary market for world military producers. The supportive sides of military sector is various hence it is a strategic sector .The 1/3 portion of the expenditure is planned to be on technological improvements. If the rate of domestic producers increase this would not only lead to an rise in employment and GNP but also a rise in technological capability of the nation.
Knowledge based and telecomunication
It is certain that in 21st cc not the ones that focus on few sector but the ones that manages top efficiently their knowledge facilities.For that reason the developed countries investment with an increasing rate on it.As the path of Turkish economy gets clear the
The completion of infrastructural investments and projects is the most important case so the sectors which would help it to happen like re-de servises will also be rising.
The declining sector;
T
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