The objective of this study is to collect and study the world's religious population figures for recent decades with the intent of identifying any significant events or trends.

     The source of the data is indirectly from ENCYCLOPEDIA BRITIANICA YEARBOOKs via WORLD ALMANACs for years 1963 - 1997.
     The World Almanac, for any given year, cites the previous year's Britianica Yearbook which inturn provides figures for its previous year. Thus the 1963 almanac contains 1961 population figures.
     The collection of WORLD ALMANACs used did not have books for the years 69, 73, 75, 77, 92 and 93; and the E. B. yearbooks referenced were for the 78 thru 91 years.
     The religious grouping, ie list of catagories, was increased in 1985. Anglician and Other Christain groups were added to the Christain religion. Also, 14 other catagories were added, ie Nonreligous, Atheists, Chinese folk, New religion, etc..
     The first 17 catagories basically represent the 1961 - 94 data and the addition of the 14 new catagories represent the 1985 -94 data. The format of the data set follows this pattern. [See one of the tables for an example.]
     The WORLD RELIGIOUS POPULATION catagory is a misnomer since it includes non-religious, none and other groups. It is useful as an indicator of how well the sum of all groups follow the world population curve.

     1. The figures from missing Almanacs are not available.
     2. The 1968 - 84 figures ommit adherents for Others/None catagory.
     3. The Primitive catagory contains only figures for the 1961 - 62 years and the 1962 year is obviously wrong.
     4. The number of adherents for most of the orginal 17 catagories changes dramatically between 1984 and 1985. There is either a large increase or decrease.
     5. Summing the new catagories for 1985 and comparing with the implied number for Others/None in 1984 also indicates an abnormal jump. [The implied Others/None is basically the difference between total world population and world religous population.]
     6. Plotting the source data for each catagory reveals a basically flat curve for the 1968 - 84 years. This does not reflect an expected proprotional increase with the world population curve.

     Generally there is a missing population which needs to be added to the data set.

     1. For the missing year data, the average of the adjacent years can be use to estimate the missing data. For the 1992 - 93 years difference between 1994 and 1992 is distributed proportionally, 1992 gets 1/3 and 1993 gets 2/3.
     2. It is noted that for the 1961 - 67 and 1985 - 94 years the ratio of world religious to world population is about 0.98. Using this ratio the number of Others/None adherents can be found by,
    

1. Simple percent change, Inc = P * (1 + n*Intr) - P
2. Compound percent change, Inc = P * (1 + Intr) ^ n - P
3. Baseline increase, Inc = P
Where, P = a base value
n = number of years from base year, ie, 1967
Intr = annual percent change

     The religious groups for which data is revised are: Roman Catholic, Eastern Orthodox, Moslem, Buddism and Hinduism.
     Jewish, Zorostrain, Shinto and Taoist contribute less than 2% each to the World Religious total. [A maximum total of 3.87% for 1968.]
     Also it is noted that data for the Jewish and Taoist groups is acceptable as is.
     The Confucian data is also smooth and thus accepted as is.
     The Protestant group, for 1968 - 84, contains the Anglician and Other Christain adherents which are listed seperately in 1985 - 94. No attempt is made to break out these sub-groups for the 1968 - 84 period. The sum of Protestant, Anglician and Other Christains constitutes a continuation of the old Protestant group. Thus the data is accepted as is.

Revision Parameters: Return to Index:

     The method and parameters used for the religious groups which are revised are:

     Percentages are of World Population which serves the baseline.

     World Religious Total. Closely approximates the World Population for the 1961 - 67 and 1985 - 94 periods. The 1968 - 84 period is fixed at 98% bye the revision stragedy used.

     Total Christain. Noticable peak at 1963, change of 1.3%, and an increase 1967 - 71, change of 3.4%. Overall a change from 29.5% to 33.2% during the 1961 - 94 period.

     Roman Catholic. Consistant 17.5 - 18.0% through 1992 with a 1.3% decline from 1992 - 94.

     Eastern Orthodox. Slight increase and decline 1967 - 73, 1.4% change with overall gain from 4.4 - 6.8% for 1961 - 94.

     Protestant. [1961 - 84, includes Anglican and Other Christain] Noticable increase, 1967 - 71, change of 2.0%, gradual 1.0% decline to 84. About 3.1% 1985 - 91 with a 0.65% increase through to 1994.

     Anglican. 0.18% decline from 1985 - 94, 1.41 - 1.22% of World Population.

     Other Christains. 2.88% in 1987, 4.75% 1994, 1.87% increase.

     Jewish. 0.42% in 1961, 0.35% 1987, 0.24% 1994.

     Moslem. Noticable increases 1967-68 1.29%, 1970-1 1.50% and decline 1980-81 1.24%. 14.17% in 1961, 15.81% 1981, 17.66% 1991 and 18.96% 1994.

     Zorostrain. 0.005% 1961 - 84.

     Shinto. Discontinuties in data at 1980-81 and 1984-85, the second probably due to re-assignment in new catagories. 1.67% in 1961, 2.44% in 1963, 1.29% 1980. 0.82% to 0.66% during 1981-84. 0.07% to 0.5% 1985-94.

     Taoist. Discontinuty in data at 1971-72. 1.635% in 1961, 1.40% in 1971, 0.83 to 0.41% during 1972-85.

     Confucian. 9.81% in 1961, 10.90% in 1965, 4.52% in 1975, 6.32% in 1985. Some portion of Confucian adherents were re-assigned to the Chinese Folk group for the 1985 - 94 data. Confucian adherents for this period are, 0.11% in 1985 and 0.09% in 1994.

     Buddhist. Increase during 1967 - 70 period, 3.75% change. 5.00% during 1961-67, 8.77% in 1970, 6.49% in 1972, 5.58% in 1994.

     Hindu. 10.97% in 1961, 15.95% in 1974, 12.90% in 1987, 13.46% in 1994.

     Others/None. Only the 1961 - 67 period is orginial data. The 1968 - 84 period is a result of the revision method use to add missing people. The 1985-94 period is a summation of the new catagories for these years. 22.02% in 1961, 24.39% in 1967, 15.74% in 1971, 26.97 in 1981, 25.91% in 1991, 23.05% in 1994.

     Non-religious. 17.24% in 1987, 14.51% in 1994.

     Atheists. 4.46% in 1985, 3.79% in 1994.

     Chinese folk. 4.10% in 1985, 3.19% in 1988, 3.88% in 1994. Probably includes a protion of Confucians.

     New Religion. 2.22% in 1985, 2.58% in 1990, 2.09% in 1994.

     Tribal religion. 1.97% in 1985, 1.15% in 1992.

     Sikhs. About 0.33% for 1985-94 period.

     Shamanists. 0.27% in 1985, 0.12% in 1992.

     Baha'is. 0.09% in 1985, 0.10% in 1994.

     Jains. 0.07% in 1985, 0.08% in 1994.

     Other Religion. 0.16% in 1986, o.34% in 1991, 0.135 in 1993.

     Ethnic religion. 0.66% in 1992, 1.93% in 1994.

     Mandeans. 0.001% in 1994

     Spiritualists. 0.06% in 1992, 0.185 in 1994.