Subject:          Re: Malthusian Population, EOTW
Date sent:        Tue, 6 Jul 1999 20:29:32 -0700

Hi Jerry:

I read more about Thomas Malthus and realized that
as I was researching his work, I had confused what
you had said about Gerald Hawkins' ideas with
those of Malthusian.  I kept looking for Malthus'
predictions of global pollution and later realized
that was a concern of Hawkins.  Mostly, what I
learned of Malthus was that Charles Darwin credits
Malthusian thought for inspiring him to develop
his own theory of Survival of the Fittest.  Also,
Malthus' population hypothesis was accepted widely
by economists and sociologists but it was rejected
by Karl Marx.  Apparently, Malthus blamed poor
people for the population explosion and, thereby,
let the wealthy folks off the hook by implying
that poor people caused their own poverty by
over-multiplying.  His hypothesis is not well
accepted today because, today, we see that
population grows exponentially whereas Malthus
believed it increased geometrically.  Also,
Malthus believed that food production did not
increase at the same rate and, therefore, he
predicted famine would result.

Like you, I have been unable to find much on the
subject of a population threshold.  That seems to
be left up to our ability to produce sufficient
food the world over (among other things).  But, of
course, there are areas of the world where people
are dying of hunger as we write so that the famine
problem is geographically centered.

I found an interesting data base on the U.S.
Census site:

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbsum.html

You can plug in the name of one of over 200
countries and get an estimate of the population
increase up to the year 2050.  I thought it was
most interesting that the majority of countries
are predicted to have a population decline during
the period 2030 - 2050.  Saudi Arabia was an
exception but the random dozen or so I plugged in
showed mostly a sharp decline in population
increase during this 20 year period.

As for the overall world population, they write,
"According to Census Bureau projections, world
population will increase to a level of nearly 8
billion persons by the end of the next quarter
century, and will reach 9.3 billion persons -- a
number more than half again as large as today's
total -- by 2050."

Another interesting thing I discovered at the U.S.
Census site is that an estimated 40 million people
have contracted the AIDS/HIV virus (mostly in
African countries), although they expect it to
spread to Asia.  And, AIDS/HIV figures into the
projections they make about population increase
over the next 50 or so years.

Here's what they write on that subject, "Current
estimates indicate over 40 million people have
become infected with HIV since the beginning of
the pandemic in the late 1970s, and over 11
million of these people have already died. While
the majority of the infections have occurred in
Sub-Saharan Africa up to now, the spread of the
disease in Asia during the coming years may result
in many more infections in that region than in
Sub-Saharan Africa.
HIV/AIDS has had, and continues to have,
substantial and sometimes dramatic impacts on
mortality levels in countries most seriously
affected. However, AIDS will not overcome the
momentum of population growth at the regional
level, even in Sub-Saharan Africa. This will be
true particularly if changes in behavior, already
observed in some settings, bring about an early
curtailment of HIV infections in affected
countries."

Well, if you don't get AIDS/HIV, you have a very
good chance of getting cancer, a disease which, I
believe, is largely the result of toxins,
pesticides, and other pollutants in the
environment.  I think money would be better spent
on eliminating environmental carcinogens than the
way it is spent now on treating the problem after
the fact.

In response to the thoughts you raised about the
"availability of data, information, predictions,
etc..." that government officials should be aware
of the impending problems and, therefore, should
prepare the population for handling them, it
depends on which side of the fence you're on.  If
you're a think tank funded by large corporations
and you have an interest in maintaining the status
quo, then you are going to look for scientific
studies (maybe even finance those studies
yourself) that refute your opponents.  For
example, take the Green House Effect issue and
Global Warming.  Republican think tanks tend to
discount the scientific data that claims that
Global Warming is the result of excessive
emissions of methane and carbon dioxide.
Generally, you hear from them (lately) that
temperature fluctuations are a normal process that
have been occurring since ???  Here's an example
of a right wing think tank and it's views on
Global Warming:

http://www.ncpa.org/hotlines/global/gwhot.html

On the other hand, more liberal organizations take
the reverse view, i.e., that Global Warming is the
direct result of excessive emissions and,
therefore, we'd better stop with the emissions.
The right doesn't want to accept that because that
would mean reshaping the world as we know it and
they have too much to gain with the ways things
are.  Here's an example of an article posted to a
more liberal page:

http://www.igc.org/igc/en/hl/99070513167/hl10.html

I have to agree with you when you say, "Prevention
of self-fulfilling panic? They know it's going be
really bad, end soon, nothing can be done about
anyway so they just make sure their families and
friends are well off till the bitter end? It's
their silence that speaks louder to me than the
books, websites, and other usual sources about the
end of the world and surviving it."

Governments are notorious for not properly
informing the people.  Remember the Love Canal in
New York where an entire housing project had been
built above some kind of toxic landfill and the
consequence was severe illness to many young
children?  The company responsible for the
landfill continually denied that it was a problem
and it is only on account of the persistence of
the residents that the Carter Administration (I
think) did anything about it.  I think the
residents held some of the company officials
hostage for a few hours in a house until Carter
stepped in.  That's all based on memory so it may
not be exactly correct.

Also, remember when we were kids and there was a
scare about mercury in tuna fish?  There was a
Japanese company dumping mercury into a river or
bay resulting in severe illnesses to those nearby.
It took those people something like 10 years
before any action was taken by the company to stop
the pollution and all the while the Japanese
government sided with the company.

I agree with you, too, about the y2k problem being
less serious than some survivalists would have us
believe.  But, they do make a good point when they
argue that the government wouldn't tell us if it
were more serious than they've told us because the
result would be a run on the banks and that would
cause economic catastrophe.  Y2k is a case where
they're damned if they do and damned if they
don't.  I commend the government for putting
contingency plans in place.  Tucson, where I live,
is one of the cities of FEMA's list in the event
y2k (or y2k panic) turns out to cause major
upheaval.

Have you ever wondered how it is that the major
network's nightly news programs are near mirrors
of one another, i.e., ABC, NBC, and CBS?  Almost
exactly the same stories and always the same major
stories.  It's more than annoying.  How is it they
come to agree to report the same news?  Aren't
they competitors?  What about the rest of the news
that is newsworthy?  We don't have cable so I'm
left to their reporting or to what I can find on
the WWW.

I'm really excited about finding that corp-focus
group.  I enjoy that sort of reporting.  I also
wish Ralph Nader would make a serious run for the
presidency but they would probably just kill him,
too.  I was in 1st grade when John Kennedy was
assassinated and I still recall how our teacher
wheeled the t.v. into our classroom and we watched
the news about the shooting while she cried.  He
represented hope for so many average and poor
people.  So did his brother.  So did Martin Luther
King.

Who do you think runs our country?  Do you think
we have a representative form of government?  Or
has it been sold to the highest bidders?  The
answer is obvious.  Still, if only we could come
together we could take our country back.  I hope
the younger generation will lead the way.

On Columbine, I would only add to what you said
that it was also because the media played out
those hours of uncertainty and then showed the
bloodshed and misery that so many people cried
out.  I didn't see the media coverage (we don't
have cable and I watch little television).  But, I
did turn on Dateline on Wednesday, the 21st and
saw their 1 hour special.  That was enough to move
me toward those discussing the issue.  But, for
those who watched in horror as it all played out,
one might just as well say that they lived through
the tragedy along with the victims.

You asked some pretty important questions after
Columbine.

"How and why would the establishment want to
change itself?"

Enough people have to come together with common
goals before there will be change.

"It does not have a reason why so there's no how
required."

I agree.  Americans are comfortable in their
prosperity and those who do not prosper are too
tired and worried to become involved.  And, they
wouldn't be taken seriously anyway.  In the midst
of the U.S. economic boom, the numbers of
Americans filing bankruptcy are at their highest.
We've been hearing that for the last several years
and the next year just brings a greater number of
bankruptcies.  I guess the more you tell a people
how great their (supposed to be) doing, the more
guilty they will feel when they're not and, so,
the less likely they are to complain about their
poor circumstances.

"The youth have the reasons why, but it is the how
that becomes the question."

The youth are less clouded by worries over bills
and meeting basic survival needs.  They also have
a greater degree of innocence. I think the answers
to many of humankind's problems are really pretty
simple.  The youth are more likely to see the
simplicity than adults with high stress levels and
multiples worries will ever be.  Did you happen to
visit the link to Marilyn Manson writings that was
posted to the columbine.students discussion group
shortly after it happened?  I'll never forget how
I felt the first time I saw that page unfold.  It
was horrific.  The page was there to show an
example of the kind of things Eric and Dylan were
exposed to.  Take a look (but be prepared).  I
should add that I had never heard of Marilyn
Manson before Columbine.

http://members.aol.com/ZZZIMZZZUM/manson.html

After reading that page, I wondered why the
authorities didn't arrest Marilyn Manson and
charge him with influencing children to commit
murder in the same way that his brother, Charles
Manson, was convicted of influencing his followers
to commit murder.  We have become so tolerant of
stuff like this.  Don't parents know what their
kids are doing?

"How does the youth world change for the better
the adult world they will become a part of?"

They can protest the same way the kids did in the
60's and early 70's.  Whatever happened to
protests?  They draw so few in numbers anymore.
You would think with the WWW that we would have
come together more than we have and that we would
be able to use it to affect positive change?  I
wish I had the answer on how to dispel apathy and
inspire activism.

"Do the predictions of the next century mean it's
already too late to change?"

Maybe that's it, Jerry.  Maybe people are just
waiting for the end.  After visiting the Marilyn
Manson site, I wonder.  After my experience in the
columbine.crisis group, I wonder.  And, it's
because I wonder that I want to find a rural place
and escape the 21st century progress.  We need a
few more years before we'll be able to afford it.
I hope we'll have that long.

Enough for tonight.

Ms. A.

Subject:          Just Checking
Date sent:        Sat, 17 Jul 1999 23:49:26 -0700

Hi Jerry:

I haven't heard from you in a while.  I hope
you're all right.  I hope I didn't say anything to
offend you.   If I did, I wish you would tell me
what it was so I can maybe learn something from
it.

Ms. A.

For example:

S |
O |---> Politics<--|    |--> Entertainment
C |       ||       |--->|--> News
I |---> Television ---->|--> Advertisements
E |       ||            |--> Educational
T |---> Youth World     |--> Other
Y |

Subject:          Re: It's just me.
Date sent:        Sun, 18 Jul 1999 18:22:50 -0700

Hi Jerry:

I'm glad to know that you're ticker's still
ticken' but sorry to hear you've been low in
spirits.  I accepted your invitation to visit your
web site and spent a few hours there (more than I
had expected to) earlier today.  The more I read
of your journal, your thoughts, your prayers, the
more I wanted to read.  And, I'm glad I spent the
time getting to know you.  I haven't read it all
but did read enough to feel more comfortable
corresponding.

When you say that I should 'put the blame on you'
for not writing, well, in one way I'm relieved
that I didn't offend you and in another way I
wonder what value there is in either credit or
blame.  I'd been wondering what happened to you
and I hoped that you were well.  I also wondered
if you were rejecting me...for something I'd
said...that was offensive...or stupid...or for
something I didn't say.  You know...we all need
acceptance.

So, this time it turned out all right.

I've been checking in on the columbine.crisis
group periodically and recently they had an
incident with a teenage boy named Michael.  It
broke my heart to watch but a few really good
spirited folks spoke up and then Michael
apologized and, well, I wrote to a Christian woman
named Nancy who I thought was exercising the true
and pure spirit of Christ.  I offered my support
to her and we exchanged a few scriptures.  If all
Christians practiced the loving spirit of Jesus, I
think there would be a lot less criticism of
Christians.  In any case, I wrote to Michael and
gave him the link to your site.  I thought what
you shared there was sincere and honest and that
Michael might gain some comfort in knowing that we
all share similiar feelings of aloneness.

I'm trying to decide which direction to take in
this letter.  Reading your writings has opened up
a lot of avenues in my mind.  I should confess
that when you first wrote to me about MoQ, some
time had passed since I'd considered it myself,
during which time my spirits had sunk and I'd
begun to feel hopeless and useless.  I gave it my
best shot to get interested in MoQ again but
something happened to me (through my experience in
the columbine.crisis group) that has changed my
spirit in a way that I hope won't last forever.
Because, if it does last forever, I should never
be happy again.

I worry a little now that my own down mood may
have helped to provoke your down mood.  I hope
not.

We're like that, we humans.  We affect one
another.  We need one another.  We need support.
Kindness. Reassurance. Acceptance.  We need other
people to take an interest in us.  We need to be
received as well as we need to share.  We get hurt
when we're rejected or just can't find someone who
really understands; a good listener.  A kindred
soul.

Your analogy of society being like a web of
interconnected cables makes a lot of sense.  We
are dependent upon one another and we do affect
one another and we do have to ride out the
directional shifts or sways.  We are like one unit
and, yet, we're not.  We forget or neglect to see
what we share in common.  Maybe we just don't give
what we have in common enough importance?

I've been trying to come up with a short answer
for you about how I see the world and society as a
whole.  Honestly, I'd rather escape it than try to
understand it. It may just be on account of the
way I've lived my life or on account of the
cirucmstances I've found myself in; I don't like
the fact that, since the early '80's, greed has
been elevated to a virtue, so that now even young
people are targeted as consumers.

I think there's too much emphasis placed on
material things today.  Recently, a 19 year old
girl told me she couldn't live without her
cellular phone.  Jerry, I've never used a cellular
phone.  I want to understand today's youth and, at
the same time, I'm angry with my generation for
creating them.  I said to the same 19 year old
girl that I didn't think it was right that Bell
Atlantic doesn't give it's customers credit when
they use 411 information and are given a wrong
number (unless the customer asks for a credit).  I
told her that it used to be that 411 was free and
that corporations only got away with charging for
it because we, consumers, didn't complain.  I told
her it used to be that companies considered it a
privilege to have you as their customers and that
now they consider it your privilege to have their
services.  She responded by saying that it's
because of that that she gets her pay check!  My
first thought was, "My God, they've already gotten
to you!"

Escape.  I just want to escape.  I'm powerless to
do anything to change this raging tide.

Bertrand Russell was onto something when he
suggested that you could convince the masses that
water doesn't boil on Sundays...or words to that
effect.  And, I think that the American people
have been sold a bag of goods...I want to return
it for a refund.  Personally, I'd be happy on an
acre or so of land, living without electricity and
only a fireplace for heat. Gardening is one of my
favorite pleasures.  I understand it would be a
struggle but it's struggling for the simple things
that brings me the greatest pleasure.

I just don't see the value of life as we know it.
We got too much too fast.  And, even though most
everyone I talk with within my own age group feels
the loss of virtue and values, we lack leaders who
would emphasize virtue and define values and,
instead, we're bombarded with commercials and news
reports that presume a set of values to which are
attached material things. In other words, we're
constantly being told what our values are, i.e.,
if you drive this sport utility vehicle...., if
you eat this cereal...., if you wear this line of
clothing...and so on ad nauseum.  On top of that,
we get mostly bad news.

How do I see the world today?  I would rather
escape it than define it.

Give me a few mystic experiences throughout the
day (not just the sexual kind).  Like the sound of
the soft cool breeze whispering in my ears and
tickling my hair across my face as I sit on a
cliff above the oceanside and watch the seagulls
diving for food.  Kaaa...Kaaa...crash goes the
sound of the incoming waves.  A lizard runs up
along side me and stops when it realizes something
living that's bigger than it stands in its way.  I
speak to it softly in a whisper.  It angles its
head upward as its eyes meet mine.  Slowly, still
whispering, I reach down.  It lets me stroke its
head.  Sweet lizard.  I lie down without moving
too quickly so as to scare it away.  It wanders up
toward my face until our eyes meet again.  And,
for that moment, that mystic moment, we're both
helpless, caught by one another's gaze.

Life's bigger than me.  I like it best when I let
it go.  I love the deepest when I forget myself.

I think your web site is exceptional.  You express
courage and a sense of responsibility.  I hope
Michael goes there.  We need more people like you
in the world.  Thanks for your journal.  A long
time ago a counselor told me that other people
feel the same things as me.  I just feel them more
intensely.  I've been struggling for years to
learn to better deal with my feelings.  Reading
your thoughts today helped to confirm what the
counselor had said.  That was a comfort.  I'll go
back and visit again when I can.

For now, I'm going to rest away the rest of the
day.  I'm not big on prayer but I'll say a prayer
for you.  And, even though we're strangers, I
would be here for you if you ever need an ear to
hear the troubles you face.

Ms. A.

Subject:          Re: CDG and such
Date sent:        Thu, 5 Aug 1999 09:28:57 -0700

Hi, Jerry:

It's good to hear you're making some progress with
learning your new profession.  I hope you will
prosper and gain many hours of satisfaction in the
process.

I so admire your dedication in life.  I haven't
been back to your site recently but learned such a
lot about you there that I respect and admire the
man you've become.

And, of course, you may post the MoQ discussion on
your site.  I don't know if you're asking if I
mind that you include my responses, too, but if
that's what you want to do, I'm all for it.  I
don't think I really gave it all I could have...I
was sort of depressed...but I'm not sorry for
anything I said, either, so I see no shame in your
posting my responses as well.

I wish you wouldn't settle on the idea that the
kids will figure out and solve the problem of
youth violence all on their own.  I think we
adults do need to be involved and to set an
example...a good example...like the one you have
and should continue to set...And, I wish you would
also re-enter the CDG conversation.  It appears
that the ng may be moved to a different server in
the near future...and your wisdom is much needed
there...I know you're busy and have other
obligations...still, I figure I can prod you a
little???  :-)

Which reminds me...Could you send me the path to
the students discussion group you've visited?  I'd
appreciate reading their thoughts.

I gotta get some stuff done and only had a few
moments to write.

Until later, have a great day.

Ms. A.