PREDICTIONS
Today
is 09 November, 2001; I am stating the date right at the start so that when
this is read two, ten, or one hundred years from now it is clear that I am not
writing this at a time after it has all become obvious to everyone.
I
am writing about the aftermath of the September 11 attacks on the World Trade
Center, especially about the War on Terror which is now raging. This war
includes the War in Afghanistan, and everyday the papers run headlines about
how the tide is turning in favor of the United States, and how we will soon
topple the Taliban. The national opinion polls show 90% of the people in the US
saying that they are happy with how this war is being conducted.
Yesterday
I read that a leading spokesman for the oil industry is now pressing for the
opening of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling, stating that
now, more than ever, we need that oil because of the new reality we are facing
after September 11. I had predicted this, just as I had predicted another thing
I also read just yesterday: September 11 is being cited as a reason for forging
ahead with the missile defense shield. It then occurred to me that the trend
would continue, that the War on Terror will expand to include a wider range of
political issues. Then I said to myself, “You know so much, like a modern-day
Nostradamus, why don’t you set it all down on paper?”
So
that is what I am doing.
First
of all, I predict that with its overwhelmingly strong firepower the US will
quickly win its war in Afghanistan, in a sense. Then it will use the UN to
implant a new government in that country, though there will remain a very
strong anti-US sentiment within the Afghan population. The people of
Afghanistan don’t like the Taliban, but they are beginning to resent the US imposition
even more. And using the UN to set up the new government is not going to change
matters. The bombs that are now falling are American, and that will leave a
longstanding impression.
When
Afghanistan has been “conquered” in this fashion it will turn out to be a land
smoldering with political discontent. And
terrorism will turn out to be unaffected by the outcome of the Afghanistan war.
It will become apparent that the terrorists who fly jet airliners into
buildings and commit other sophisticated nefarious acts are not educated and
trained in the remote uplands of Afghanistan. The breeding grounds and training
centers for this type of terrorist are very far from the deserts of Kandahar.
Although
the outcome of the war in Afghanistan will not affect terrorism, the waging of
it will have an effect – for the worse. Terrorists are people who believe that
the US is a heavy-handed nation that imposes its will however it can, including
through the use of its mammoth arsenals and armies. The winning of Afghanistan
will provide clear proof of this, and, since even the craziest of ideologies
needs some basis in external facts, anti-American conviction will grow in both
strength and number.
Terrorists
attacks will, unfortunately, keep occurring. The World Trade Center attack was
something that had been in the works for more than a decade, this was known
ever since the first attempt long ago. This fresh assault did not in itself
constitute the beginning of an intensified series of strikes – but as political
leaders focused an onslaught of inimical oratory against specific terrorist
groups, the obvious effect being a greatly increased emotional intensity on all
sides; as bombs were launched against Afghanistan cities, obviously killing many
civilians; and now that the main brunt of the oppression is being felt by many
whose connections with terrorism are circumstantial at best, terrorists will
begin to rise in increasing numbers to take up the challenge.
The
final result will not be, however, the decimation of the American population.
Many more people will die of violence in other parts of the world than in
America. No, the most pernicious and lasting effects to America, which will be
seen to strike her to the core, will be the revocation of those basic freedoms
that had made her different, coupled with the loss of her welcoming spirit to
those from abroad.
Fewer
tourists, fewer international business conferences, less people arriving for
training courses, less investment from overseas, a dearth of illegal immigrants
– who had always constituted an advance wave of worldwide pro-American
sentiment – will all add up to less international exchange, less relationships
with people overseas, less influence, less worldwide status.
Thus,
its current increase in status will be followed by an even larger drop, which
will likely take place according to the standard length of public-opinion
reactions to dramatic events: between 5 and 6 months (meaning in January and
February of 2002). Its increasingly military posture and the image it will
garner in regard to its missile-shield program, will unfortunately result in a
decrease in goodwill within a significant segment of the world’s populations.
The leaders of the War on Terrorism will discover that they are using a cannon
to attack an invisible enemy, and they are bound to blow holes through too many
innocent people. The consequences of the fiasco will make the lesson of Vietnam
seem mild in comparison.
We
will notice that, for some time to come, more and more the news will be
saturated with propaganda, also an effect of well-meaning people, this time
journalists. They will display what they deem to be patriotism by serving as
go-betweens for the Pentagon’s PR corps, whose job is to control public opinion
in favor of the Pentagon’s programs. The overall strategy of this PR is to
“smooth” events before, during, and after they occur. As an example, we can all
recall how before the bombing in Afghanistan began the word from our military
leaders was to the effect of, “We will be very, very careful not to kill
civilians, and our bombs are super-precise.” After the bombing began this
changed to, “Our bombing cannot be totally precise, you have got to accept some
civilian casualties.” And now this has now become, “Well, this is war, what do
you expect? Of course a lot of civilians are going to get killed.”
I also predict that there will be an upsurge of Orwellian
phrases, which will appear one after another, each more unabashed than the
previous one. “Enduring Freedom” comes at a time when judicial power and civil
rights are being shrunk back at a rate never before experienced in American
history. The massive bombs they are now dropping, which fling heavy shrapnel
whizzing out horizontally at ground level are called “Daisy Cutters.” The “USA
Patriot Act” (passed with only one vote of conscience against it) was designed
to compromise the shining achievement of America’s original patriots, the Bill
of Rights.
The American collective psyche will at
first sublimate its fear into a feeling of power by seeking strength in what is
traditionally linked with masculinity, bravado, and authority: military prowess
and the steely voice of the so-called hardliner politicians, thinkers and
commentators. These hardliners never cease to push their agenda of more
military, more police power, more rights for business, more xenophobia. Now
they will find that all resistance to their push has suddenly evaporated.
Things that conflict with their agenda, like protection of the natural environment,
civil rights, free expression against military, the police and big business
will be seen to take a second seat. With the passage of time, the American
people will again develop the courage to match wits against these stern
authority types, to fight for a more middle-of-the-road approach, constructing
a better future for their descendants according to their conscience. When their
good sense does get back on its feet, however, they will discover that in the
interim new laws were enacted, new precedents established and new institutions
set up that will make the US more hardline for decades to come.
In the flush of the early stages, most
people will have no problem with this hardliner transformation. Even those who were staunch opposers to hardline causes will make some trade-offs in the
hope, real or not, that they will thereby be safer from terrorists. They will be
deluded into believing that the things
that were dear to them before September 11 are now outmoded, that the ideals
they once fought so hard for should be given up, without so much as a fight –
laid, as it were, at the terrorist’s feet. The few who keep to their
pre–September 11 ideals will in the beginning be viewed as misguided, but once
the world gets back on its feet they will be admired for their stick-to-itiveness
and strength.
In the upcoming months, the governmental
tone will become increasingly extreme in accordance with the lemma, “You are
either with us or against us.” Not only this, but there will be popular
oppression of any criticism of the War. This will be done in the name of
“patriotism,” and for some time to come it will not be realized that this is in
direct contradiction to the spirit of democracy, which presupposes that each
person think for him or herself, and be free to express his or her opinion. In
this period, the intelligent way to organize a nation – generating many ideas
and views, then choosing the best from among them – will be largely superceded.
A nonrepresentative political segment will find itself with a monopoly not only
on power but on the generation of ideas, leading to what will be seen in
retrospect as mistakes.
Today, it was announced that the War on
Terrorism is a “fight for civilization itself,” and since the War in
Afghanistan is part of the larger war, this implies that to speak out against
the bombing of Afghanistan is to risk the very end of the world. It is hard to
imagine how the rhetoric will build from there, but it most certainly will.
Fortunately, over the long run, a growing number of people will cease to be
intimidated, so in the end a healthy difference of opinion will be restored.
Even in the face of growing terrorism, our inner strength as a people will
allow us to begin thinking critically once again and to wake up to the fact
that the Pentagon is not always the best adviser when it comes to playing our
role in international affairs. We will seriously consider whether or not
dropping expensive ordnance on Middle and Far Eastern countries is necessarily
part of the solution. We will continue to carry out the fight against
terrorism, but in
ways
designed to actually reduce it.
When I think of the New York City
firemen who gave their lives, who are now heroes, my heart swells with emotion;
I am reminded of how good humanity can be, and how great the U.S. is. When I
see that their image is going be used by the military minded to quiet the
protests against the bombings, my heart grows sick for two reasons. Number one,
because it shows there are no depths to which these people will not reach to
justify their bellicose schemes. Number two, I am reminded of the pusillanimity
of mankind, so easily cowed and manipulated in their good simplicity by those
who use war for monetary and political gain.
This era of terrorism will subside, not
just in terms of US targets, but for the world at large. The heyday of milking
terror for political and military agendas will finally be ended through overdue
public protest. We will discover that stopping terrorist acts by merely taking
a tough-guy stance and detecting, imprisoning and killing terrorists is only
marginally effective, and heavy in costs – not only in monetary terms, but in
terms of the freedoms lost and the overall climate of suspicion, oppression and
paranoia. A less expensive and more effective solution will finally be
established, consisting of a healthier international community to suppress the
unavoidable terrorists, while assuring that the avoidable ones are not
created. New generations of children will grow up to understand that justice to
individual citizens, no matter in what country they live, takes precedence over
any national self interest. Judging from the past, this may sound like naive
optimism, but it is bound to happen. The modern world is smaller, and the
stakes are higher. The solutions will be found; the continuance of civilization
demands it, and, as the saying goes, “Necessity is the mother of invention.” In
the end, despite its ugly deplorability, September 11 will have made the vast
majority of people, and their leaders, more responsible.
John Norman,
09 November 2001
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