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The Super Bowl "theory" says that if a team from the original * National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the stock market increases for the rest of the year, and if a team from the old American Football League wins, the stock market goes down. For 1967-1997 this was right 28 out of 31 times (if you use the Dow Jones Industrial average- DJIA) or 90% of the time. It failed four years in a row from 1998-2001, but still had and 80% success rate thru 2006. (Note: results are not as good if you use the S&P 500 instead of the DJIA, because there are years when one went up and the other went down.) New York investment adviser Robert Stovall first noticed the correlation between Super Bowl wins and stock market gains in 1979. It's among the most accurate of the dozens of offbeat economic indicators that market watchers follow. Economist Paul M. Sommers of Middelbury College in Vermont has analyzed the data for the years from 1967 to 1998 and included the division and total points. He reported his findings in the May, 2000 College Mathematics Journal. Sommers' model suggests that the stock market posts a significantly higher gain if the Super Bowl winner is from the National Football Conference Western Division. Moreover, the higher the combined team point totals are, the lower the percentage change in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The fact that the NVC dominated up till 1997 and the market has a general tendency to go up helped. Super Bowl winners and the Dow Jones Industrial Avereage
By 2001 the Baltimore Colts had moved to Indianapolis and the Baltimore Ravens were an AFC team. † - In 1984 and 2005 the S&P 500 went up while the Dow was flat or went down slightly. In 1990 the S&P went down and the Dow went up.
References:
Links: Return to Investing
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