Pascal's Wager

Pascal's wager is a response to disbelief in the Christian God. Pascal approaches the question as a gambler would, weighing the risks against the possible payoff. (Blaise Pascal, 1623-62, was a founder of probability theory.) So, he says, one should believe, since if the belief turns out to be correct, much is gained, but if it turns out to be wrong, nothing is lost. In other words, it's a "play safe" argument. It's a variation of the insurance salesman's pitch that starts with "What if....?".

I can think of four problems with this idea:

1. Sincere belief is not something that can be turned on and off, although one can pretend to believe something and go through the motions.

2. The "gambler" is not faced with a simple either-or choice, but a large number of choices. Pascal tacitly assumed that the Christian god, with rewards and punishments according to Pascal's form of Christianity, is the only thing in question. However, there are many other possible choices for what to believe or not. Which god(s), and which form of belief: Hebrew, Christian (several variations), Muslim, Hindu, Zoroastrian, American Indian, Voodoo, ...? All of them have had many sincere adherents. One can't worship or believe in them all, or even compromise, since in some cases worshiping one of these gods will antagonize another one. Remember that the god of the Hebrews is explicitly jealous. Maybe some of the other gods are too. So you might have more to lose by wagering on the wrong god than by wagering on none at all!

3. Suppose we agree, say by "creation science" reasoning, that there is a god and only one god. But maybe the real god is a bit different from the Old Testament god, in that he (she, it) hates having people always trying to kiss his butt, does not approve of the killing of animals for sacrifice, and prefers people to have enough self-respect that they won't do those things. Maybe the god (or gods) prefers people to listen to reason rather than have faith in mythology. Another possibility is that he wants us to annually throw a virgin into the crater of a volcano. How does one know?

4. In the spirit of "just in case" or "what if", we should take precautions against voodoo curses, avoid bad luck brought on by black cats, knock on wood, and throw salt over the left shoulder. We should go to every fortuneteller, psychic, and astrologer, for maybe one of him or her is legitimate. Always carry a crucifix and a bulb of garlic, just in case the stories about vampires are true. We should follow all the 600-odd rules for living as laid down in the Bible books of Leviticus and Deuteronomy. This paragraph might seem like just a cheap attempt at reductio ad absurdum, but I maintain it's more, since all of the above have their sincere believers.