I know this has already been done by about half a dozen of you, but here are my observations, recommendations and opinions.
The numbers I cite are very close approximations, and depend upon whether you calculate 2/3 of one percent by multiplying by 0.0066 or 0.0067 or if the number required is big enough by 0.006667. Does any case law exist on this? In some counties this could make a single registration the difference between carrying the county or not. It also wouldnt surprise me to see the countys attempt a purge or two before the November 1, 2001 deadline, so we need to build up a cushion.
1) We are actually within striking distance in all the countys. But several are close enough to start out as first targets. As has already been stated, Pima Co. is already in and with a good cushion, however, they were purged of 3,179 registrants last year. This may become important later in the statewide, but probably not. Also weird, only 14% of eligible voters are registered to vote in this county! That is amazing, and no other county is anywhere near as low as this.
2) Santa Cruz has, by my calculations, just enough to qualify as the second automatic ballot status county for Libertarian Party in the state. We should try to get a registration cushion. Liz, you can either ask the Pima Co. Precinct Committeemen to help fulfil their duties (If their duties encompass helping register Libertarians outside of their precinct, much less their residing county.), or we can mail a letter and registration form to the 23 people who were dropped from the roll. If only 7 more registered, we would probably have that county locked up.
3) Maricopa Co. needs 2,021 more registered libertarians to achieve ballot status. This is actually not a lot. The Maricopa Co. dropped 3,535 from the registration list last year. 18% of the registered voters in this county are Independent/3rd Party. Approximately 1 million qualified people exist in this county right now who are not registered to vote. The other motivation for registering Maricopa Co. is that in qualifying that many registrants, we also qualify the state level which needs 1,912 more libertarian registrations. Failing this, we need number 1 above.
4) The other two counties I would jump on first would be Yavapi and Coconino Counties. Yavapi Co. needs 86 more registrants, and dumped 84 from its rolls last year. This county is at 0.58% registered Libertarian right now. But over 55% of the eligible voters are already registered. Coconino Co. is at 0.57% right now, and needs 62 more registered libertarians to reach the magic 2/3 of a percent mark. Coconino Co. dumped 56 registrants last year. It also has 29% of its current voters registered as Independents/3rd Party! But one out of every two persons eligible to vote is already registered. We should have this done by our April convention to get some new blood participating. NAU? Prescott College?
5) All of our county activity should be directed at resurrecting a working county LP in each county concurrently with our registration drive. For that we need contacts, and people and places willing to hold meetings, take office, and issues to focus around. Discontent with the status quo, and a means to organize and accomplish something.
6) I would recommend the next counties to go after be Mohave and Navajo (the latter due to the presence of Mike Haggard). Neither will be easy. Mohave is interesting in that it has almost grown 50% in the last decade in population, and has 20% of the registered voters as independent. 7) Then I would swing down and hit La Paz and Yuma Cos. La Paz needs 34 registered libertarians, and dumped 7 from the voter roll last year. Yuma County has the second lowest percentage of registered voters versus eligible voters at 29%. Even though 231 additional Libertarian registrants are needed, and only 34 were bumped, greater than 2 of 3 adults approached are not going to be registered (Spanish speakers needed). Pinal and Gila Co. would be next. Pinal might not be easy, except for location between the two largest population counties, while Gila only needs 76 more registered libertarians, and was the strongest vote for L. Neil (although this is probably not statistically significant).
8) We try to get candidates in the elections, but one thing we do not focus on is getting a candidate in the county attorneys spot. My hat is off to Pima Co. and David Hardy for getting 11% of the vote (each county party only needs 5% to automatically qualify for county status until the next county attorney election). We never know when we will get an election where one of the two major incumbent parties are not represented, but this is generally an automatic for getting more than 5%. We should always have a candidate for County Attorney in all 13 counties. I assume there are no requirements to actually be a lawyer to run for Co. attorney, so anyone can run.
There are three counties where the voter registration is split between the two incumbent parties by 6% or less. Cochise Co. has a 45 39%, La Paz Co. has a 44 42% and Pima Co. has a 44 42% split Democrat to Republican respectively. We would have the ability to cause a victory to shift to either party in these counties with much lower effort than in any of the other counties. These three counties could have LPs that would have the major parties coming hat in hand for favors if we could convince them we were responsible for their victory/defeat. We should concentrate (or Pima Co./Santa Cruz Co LP) should concentrate on Cochise Co. next. They require 142 new registered libertarians, and dropped 43 last year.
9) Apache Co. and Greenlee Co. have 70% and 75% registered Democrats respectively. This means that the Republicans probably dont run any one for County Attorney frequently, and that there will be some voters who would vote for a libertarian candidate, just so the automatic Democrat winner wouldnt get too big of a head by sweeping everything.
10) Graham Co. is another Co. with only 67 registrations needed, and would probably be the last we should hit, unless Pima Co., etc. wishes to hit it.
11) The entire state is Democrat territory, with the exception of Maricopa Co. And at 28% growth rate for this county, the Republicans should be very worried indeed with their shifting fortunes. Especially with recent voting trends, and the upcoming re-districting.
Powell