Date: Wed, 30 May 2001 15:59:44 -0000 From: auvenj@mailcity.com Subject: [lpaz-discuss] Re: Results are in: ALP, Inc. Voter Registration Experiment To: lpaz-discuss@yahoogroups.com Reply-To: lpaz-discuss@yahoogroups.com
--- In lpaz-discuss@y..., "C. D. Tavares" <Tavares@a...> wrote: > > "It is currently IMPOSSIBLE to fill out a voter registration form
in > > such a way that, when it is submitted, it results in a
registration > > for ALP, Inc."
>
> What, on the basis of a single experimental data point?
When I undertook this, I suggested that others try the same experiement in different ways to provide additional data points. Apparently there were no takers.
> > The point is, people were acting like the state was cramming ALP,
> > Inc.'s status as a political party down our throats, whether we
liked > > it or not.
>
> Have you forgotten the filed bill that specified that a political
party in > Arizona is whoever their national affiliate says they are?
Not at all. That bill didn't pass, much to Peter's disappointment. Under the current Title 16 that's not the case.
Look, I know this experiment provides only one data point. I liken the situation to the following:
I invite my friend Bill over for dinner and he tells me he's a dowser -- he can find water in the desert just by walking around with a couple of rods. I don't believe it. I tell him there is no mechanism for this technique to work. I tell him there isn't any evidence that those throughout history who claim they can do so have ever been able to back it up. But he's adament, "I KNOW I can do it!", and suggests an experiment. After dinner, we stumble around in the desert for a few minutes and he says, "aha, the water is here, only 5 feet down." So we dig. And dig. And dig. After 4 hours and 20 feet there's still no water. I have the gall to pronounce that the experiment has validated my viewpoint.
"But it's only one data point. We really have to try again and measure my success statistically." This criticism is valid. Perhaps if we tried to find water 100 times with the Bill and the rods, and 100 times at random, we'd find water more often with the rods than at random, and thus verify Bill's claim.
If Bill wants to do that, fine. My view is that Bill is full of it -- was before the experiment and still is after the experiment. I let Bill talk me into performing one experiment, and when it didn't validate his view of the world now he tells me it is meaningless unless we go through enormous additional effort.
You liken the situation to depositing a $100 check and thinking "happy thoughts" when the bank credits my account $1000. This is not a correct analogy. I thought the check was for $1000 before I ever entered the bank. It was payment for about $1000 worth of goods, the agreed upon amount at the time was $1000, and it looks like a $1000 check to me. Nevertheless, the guy who wrote the check later says, "no, that's only a $100 check I wrote." So I decide to just deposit the thing and find out. My account is credited $1000, and I tell my friend I am now confident that it WAS a $1000 check he wrote. He then criticises me for jumping to conclusions. After all, banks make errors all the time. He's the one thinking happy thoughts that his account is only going to be debited for $100.
To summarize, I think ALP, Inc. is not a political party because they have no registered voters, they have no candidates, they haven't petitioned as a new party as required under Title 16, they haven't qualified as a continuing party as required by Title 16, and their platform is just a photocopy of ALP's. I listened to some folks who suggested an experiment that might contradict my view. It didn't, so I continue to hold my view.
--Jason Auvenshine
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