Year 2004, Technologies, and Beyond
Date: 2004.01.20 - 2004.03.22
Contents
2004.01.20 :
Notebook |
miniNotebook |
LCD |
EUC
2004.03.22 :
PDA
According to the news media, last year, the Notebook outsold the Desktop PC
the first time. I think the Notebook can enjoy its glamour time for the next
four years. About 15 years ago, the joined force of the Desktop PC and LAN
changed the landscape of the computer world for ever.
Nowadays, the combination of the Notebook and
Wi-Fi / WLAN (Wireless LAN) can lead us into a new wonderland.
According to the news media, a county in California, working with a wireless
service company, installed Wi-Fi access points on the downtown's buildings.
So, county employees and residents can use computers to do business with
the county "wirelessly" in the downtown area.
I think the time for the miniN(otebook) has finally come. The Personal
Computer (PC) was born in 1981. From 1981 to 2000, the challenge was to
make the PC powerful and user friendly. From 2001 to 2010, I think,
the challenge is to make the PC mobile and wireless.
Let me pretend to be an analyst from the Gartner, I am kidding, and talk
about the mobility chain. The Desktop PC is at the bottom of the
chain because of its bulky size. Above the Desktop PC, it is the Notebook.
Then, the miniN is above the Notebook. Currently, the PDA/Pocket PC are at
the top of the chain.
Because of the technology limitation, I do not think the PDA/Pocket PC can
reach their peak time before the year 2010. In the mean time, the miniN
is very promising because it is more mobile than the Notebook and more
powerful than the PDA/Pocket PC.
The miniN is a hybrid of the Notebook and PDA/Pocket PC. We can use
the miniN as the bridge for the migration march from the Notebook to
the PDA/Pocket PC.
-
The miniN weighs between 1.5 and 3 pounds.
-
The screen size is between 9" and 12" (diagonal) with 16:9 aspect
ratio (wide screen).
-
The processor is the Intel Centrino, or others.
-
The memory is the Intel StrataFlash Wireless Memory System, or others.
-
The OS is the Microsoft Mobile PC, or others.
-
The Office Suite is the Microsoft Mobile Office Suite, or others.
-
The hard disk is the Hitachi/IBM Microdrive, or others.
-
To copy / transfer files, besides through the network, there are two
options:
-
Using CF (Compact Flash), or SD (Secure Digital), or others.
-
Using CD/DVD/Floppy Disk, or others. In this case, the miniN may
be thicker and heavier, but users can watch movies and listen to
the music.
The miniN can appeal to a broad range of users, especially mobile users,
such as, students, military personnel, truck drivers. Also, users can
mount the miniN into vehicles (car, SUV, truck, M1A1/2 Tank, Bradley
Fighting Vehicle).
The Desktop PC is evolving too. According to the news media,
last year, the LCD Panel outsold the CRT Monitor. But so far,
we have only seen the iceberg of the LCD potential. Eventually,
the LCD can go to many places where today's glass or paper goes.
The LCD can do the following (with or without the background light):
-
Working as the home/office/shop window.
People can adjust the LCD Window to be dark, bright, or between,
based on their mood or weather. Also, the LCD Window can
display messages, like a message said by Phoebe in the TV Show
"Friends", "Mike, will you marry me?" As more and more women
become "Joan of Arc", I think it is OK for either men or
women to propose. By the way, I can not believe this is the
last season for "Friends" to be our friends.
According to the news media, there is about 40% of the LCD to be
rejected because of "bad spots". I think these rejected LCD can
be used for low resolution windows. By doing so, LCD manufacturers
can increase their revenues and reduce the price of the LCD Panel
for the PC or TV.
-
Working as Eye Glasses.
People can hook up LCD Eye Glasses to the
miniN/PDA/Pocket PC/Smart Phone.
The left LCD glass becomes the "Content Window" to display the content
of a(n) e-mail/Web page/other application. The right LCD glass becomes
the "Control Window" to display controls, such as, menus, buttons,
and vertical and horizontal scroll bars of the application. In the
mean time, the original screen of the
miniN/PDA/Pocket PC/Smart Phone splits
into 2 mouse pads, one for the "Content Window", the other for the
"Control Window". When a person moves her/his finger across
the "Content Mouse Pad", the cursor of the "Content Window" will
move in sync. The same is true for the "Control Mouse Pad".
-
Working as the class room blackboard or conference room whiteboard.
For example, the instructor can hook up her/his computer to the LCD
board for the class presentation.
-
Working as the billboard to display messages.
-
Working as an information pad to glue to the bottom part of the
windshield of the vehicle.
So, like the Fighter Jet, the vehicle and driving information can be
displayed on the windshield.
Last holiday season, the sale of the LCD TV is very good. But this
is only the beginning. The LCD TV can lead us into a new era: not
only JLo and Ben split (do not get me wrong, I like JLo and Ben),
but also people can watch
3D TV/DVD/Camera Phone/Video Phone.
In the future, like the stereo audio, the
TV/DVD/Camera Phone/Video Phone
can output 2 video/picture channels: the left channel and right
channel.
To produce 3D images, there are two options:
-
LCD Eye Glasses.
People can connect LCD Eye Glasses to the video/picture output of the
TV/DVD/Camera Phone/Video Phone.
The left LCD Eye Glass displays the left channel images. The right LCD
Eye Glass displays the right channel images. Then 3D images can be
generated in the people's brain.
This option can be used in everywhere, especially crowded places,
such as, traveling in the car or air plane.
-
3D LCD TV with polarized eye glasses.
The 3D LCD TV can alternately generate left channel images and
right channel images with more than 60 frames/per second and emitting
the polarized light. By wearing polarized eye glasses, the left eye
can watch left channel images only and so does the right eye.
Then, 3D images can be formed in the brain.
This option is very good at the home, especially in the family or
living room.
Based on my "VooDoo" analysis, just joking, by the year 2010,
people can watch
3D TV/DVD/Camera Phone/Video Phone,
and play 3D games. How about a 3D Super Bowl or Britney Spears
video, which can be "Shock and Awe".
About 20 years ago, the US lost the consumer electronic industry to
Japan. This time we have to do better. To create jobs, the Congress
needs to pass a bill to give 3 years of tax break for companies to
build new facilities in the US to research, develop, and manufacture
the LCD products. Because today's LCD is tomorrow's glass or paper.
As the digital technology unifies the consumer electronic industry
and computer industry together, the Entertainment Utility Computer
(EUC) can emerge in the coming years. People can mount the EUC on
the wall or put it on the TV stand.
Like the SUV (Sport Utility Vehicle), the EUC CAN perform multiple
functions:
-
Working as a TV.
-
Working as a computer.
-
Working as a TV and computer (picture in picture).
People can write an e-mail and watch the TV Show "American Idol"
at home at the same time. What a productivity gains! Even Mr.
Dilbert can be a better worker.
-
Recording the TV program to the Hard Disk.
-
Working as an album to display the family photo.
-
Working as an Art Decoration Board.
Most of Chinese-American parents are paying special attentions
to their children education. Many of them tie their children
gifts/presents to their education performance, which I support.
"Sweetheart, if you can achieve this, I will take you to the
Disney World next summer." Soon, parents may have a new weapon.
"Honey, if you can accomplish this, I will show your works on the
big screen of the EUC." For those people who do not have children,
they can always display other children works, like
"Mona Lisa Smile".
In the future, the EUC can be controlled by the voice command.
Before that can happen, the keyboard, mouse and TV remote can be
integrated into a Combo-Remote to control the EUC wirelessly.
In ancient times, a queen might say: "Mirror, mirror, on the wall,
who is the most beautiful of all?" In modern times, a California
Governor, Mr. Arnold, might say: "Computer, computer, on the wall,
where is my lovely wife Maria?", that voice would activate the
computer to dial Ms. Maria's camera/video phone. Then, Ms. Maria's
picture would display on the big screen to keep Governor Arnold heart
warm in the cold northern California winter.
Contents
2004.01.20 :
Notebook |
miniNotebook |
LCD |
EUC
2004.03.22 :
PDA
About 100 years ago, the railroad industry was enjoying its happy hours.
But the rigid railroad structure limited its usage. About 50 years ago,
the US began to construct the Interstate Highway System. Currently, the
"rail-less" systems (Automobiles and Highways, Airplanes and Airports)
are people's preferred travel choices in the US because the mobility
is the nature of the mankind.
I think the PDA/Pocket PC has a bright future but it takes time and effort
to get there, the key problem is the limitation of the human body.
If we look back the history of the computer world for the last 40
years, some hardware components, like processor, did follow Mr. Moore's
law. But human interface components, like display screen and keyboard,
did not because they are constrained by the limitation of the human
body.
-
If the screen and fonts are too small, people can not read.
-
If the keyboard is too small, people can not type.
The success of the PDA/Pocket PC relies on the break through of the
technologies of the display and data entry.
-
The Display Technology
The current display technology is facing a dilemma. For the mobility,
the size of the screen has to be small, then not many contents can be
displayed. To solve this problem, we have to develop the
technologies/devices to adapt to the human body, that is, to move the display
devices to be close to our eyes.
Two possible choices are:
-
LCD Eye Glasses
The left LCD eye glass displays the contents of the application, the
right one displays the control of the application, or vice versa.
For more information, please read the
LCD section.
-
Goggle DLP (Digital Light Processing) Projector
A goggle is used to support a DLP projector to project the images
into human's eyes.
-
The Data Entry Technology
The possible choice is the voice command.
I think it may take 5 years for the above technologies/devices to become
the mainstream. In the mean time, people have to make the tradeoff between
the functionality and mobility.
Contents
2004.01.20 :
Notebook |
miniNotebook |
LCD |
EUC
2004.03.22 :
PDA