WR-501 - War And Conflict Resolution End State

501.1 Comprehend the interrelationships between desired end state, political and military objectives, and conflict resolution.

501.11 Explain how war and conflict resolution can affect the desired end state or political objectives.

"Conflict termination should be considered from the outset of planning and should be refined as the conflict moves toward advantageous termination." (Joint Pub 3-0)

Outcome of the war (not the campaigns) determines how well it serves the desired end state or political objectives. Just as campaigns are planned to effectively employ the military instrument of power, so must terminating that same employment. The actual fighting in a war is important to achieving the desired end state, but the way in which the war is concluded is equally important. It is important to note that the military does not exclusively own the entire war and conflict resolution process from start to finish, but the military does establish the parameters in which conflict resolution occurs (providing initial resources and forging the road to a successful end state.

"The mechanics of how to terminate the war, if applied correctly, provide an orderly conclusion to the war and a smooth transition to the post-hostilities phase and eventually in achieving the strategic vision of the desired end state." (Lesson Thesis)

"There is a need to deal with war termination strategies in the military planning process not only because military actions contribute to and shape war termination but also because experience suggests it will not be done elsewhere. Moreover, just as military strategies cannot be formulated without political objectives, political objectives for war cannot be formulated without appreciation of military resources, capabilities, and limitations which in turn inform and shapes political objectives." (Bade)

501.2 Comprehend the formulation of solutions to operational problems using current joint doctrine. [I.2c]

501.21Discuss how states plan and execute war and conflict resolution.

Negotiated Settlements

Formal Peace Treaties-Primary method of termination up to WWII

Armistice, Truce, Cease Fire-originally a temporary cessation of hostilities, but used more recently to

negotiate permanent peace settlements

Joint Political Agreements-a la Viet Nam

Unilateral Actions

Victor Unilateral Declaration-one side declares the war is over and dictates the terms of peace.

Capitulation-normally a military decision made by commanders

Withdrawal-forces from one or more parties ceases hostilities and leaves the battlefield

501.22 Discuss, using historical examples, the factors operational planners considered or ignored in war and conflict resolution scenarios.

WWI

• Peace was negotiated only by the victors (Germany was forced to accept punitive terms)
• European allies went to Versailles to extract vengeance and compensation from Germany in terms of prestige, territory, and money.
• Restrictions on Germany's ability to equip and maintain its military forces relative to the European allies were instituted.
• Territorial accessions to the allies on the continent (as well as Germany's possessions) were extensive.
• Allies presented Germany with a monetary debt for war reparations which was well beyond its means to repay

"World War I is a case study which demonstrates the absence of war termination planning--policymakers and military planners gave no forethought to defining an end state or war termination objectives and conditions before military intervention. When the shooting stopped, allied leaders opted for retribution from Germany rather than the more objective posthostilities approach favored by President Wilson. By failing to achieve a mutually satisfactory settlement, the combatants, all too soon, found themselves again in the midst of an even greater global war." (ACSC Research Project 95-053)

WWII

• It was critical to rebuild Great Britain, France, and even Germany, which combined with America's substantial military strength, would help offset growing Soviet power in Europe.
• President Roosevelt preferred a distinct separation between the political and military instruments of power, with little or no overlap. The military was to complete its task, then make way for the diplomats to come up with the peace plan.
• The American interest in holding off postwar arrangements until victory was assured, may have led to the USSR's gaining much of its post-WWII strength in the form of territorial occupation and "buffer zones."

"The US applied some lessons learned from the experience of the peace settlement of WWI. Follow-on occupation of West Germany and Japan accomplished the major feats of converting prior enemies into powerful allies. The economic, humanitarian, and political assistance the US provided an enduring peace with these nations. However, we overlooked the possibility that today's ally can become tomorrow's enemy. Having achieved the military objective of total victory and well on our way to forming a "better state of peace" with Germany and Japan, we nevertheless appeased Stalin in Eastern Europe, tacitly allowing the formation of the Warsaw Pact Coalition of soviet satellites….An additional lesson we learned from the WWII and post-WWII experience is the danger of arbitrarily redesigning state borders, based only on how far an army proceeded before the whistle was blown. We see today the partial result of countries whose borders the USSR redrew without regard to nationality or culture. The iron fists of totalitarian countries such as Yugoslavia controlled disparate groups within these artificial borders for awhile. However, once the iron grip was relaxed, nationalistic concerns and years of suppressed rage quickly led to armed conflict.." (ACSC Research Project 95-053)

Vietnam

• Hanoi bargained only when it was under severe pressure of bombing
• President Nixon ordered heavy bombing in Hanoi to bring them back to the table twice
• All U.S. Troops withdraw in 4 months, North Vietnamese troops stayed
• U.S. Prisoners return secured
• 1975, Communist Vietnam secures Unilateral victory over South Vietnam by extermination and expulsion
• U.S. primary interest had been to prevent the fall of Indochina to communism-This objective was lost.

"From the beginning of hostilities, our government did not have the will to achieve unilateral victory by defeating North Vietnam or convincing North Vietnam their objectives were unattainable. American forces should not be sent to combat merely to demonstrate resolve and commitment. The conflict objective should clearly state what the peace should look like--politically, socially, and militarily--after the conflict. We knew what we were fighting against, but failed to understand what we were fighting for. President Nixon said, 'Policymakers based their decision on what was needed to prevent defeat rather than what it would take to achieve victory.' There was no vision of the end state we were trying to build in South Vietnam, other than a vague picture of an independent country free of communism." (ACSC Research Project 95-053)

Desert Storm

"Clausewitz tells us that the most important act in any war is the formulation of one's objectives. In DESERT STORM, for perhaps the first time in American history, political and military leaders thoroughly coordinated and established clear, attainable strategic and military objectives before entering the war. They set limited objectives for a limited campaign and stuck to them with a fixed determination that would have made Clausewitz proud.

Several examples follow that illustrate the importance of applying war termination principles at the outset and at all levels in the planning process. It is important to note, however, that in many of the instances where thought was given to termination, it was not the result of any published doctrine or planning guidance. In many instances we were fortunate enough to have individuals in the right place at the right time who took it upon themselves to "make things work." We may not always be so fortunate.

Historically, military leaders have focused on the campaign with little thought to its aftermath. DESERT STORM clearly illustrates that posthostilities planning must receive the same emphasis as operational planning to achieve the desired end state. Close coordination with other governmental and civilian agencies, Nongovernmental Organizations (NGOs), Private Volunteer Organizations (PVOs), and others is essential to restoring order and tranquillity to a previously hostile environment. It further highlights the fact that limited wars pose a unique problem in war termination. Because these wars do not end with the total defeat of the enemy, determining the best time to negotiate to achieve the desired end state can be both difficult and challenging. Finally, understanding the circumstances under which termination efforts are initiated and carried out is an important aspect of peace negotiations. Commitment to the aftermath is critical to achieving the ends for which the war was fought." (ACSC Research Project 95-053)

501.23 Discuss what factors are essential to successful war and conflict resolution and achieving the vision of the desired end state.

Five areas for war termination planning (Cain)

1. Negotiations-designed to halt combat operations; can be negotiated by theater commander or in traditional diplomatic channels
2. Noncombatant responsibilities-safety of noncombatants; US Forces responsible to provide security and assistance for refugees and displaced persons transiting the battlefield.
3. Force security-secure territories to minimize potential for resumption of hostilities
4. Reintroducing civilian authority: difficult because military authorities are reluctant to relinquish control and civilian leaders can be intimidated by the magnitude of reconstruction tasks
5. Reconstitute the battlefield & Support peace administration
   1. Identify, neutralize and remove hazards from the battlefield
   2. Traditional peacekeeping and nation assistance missions

501.3 Comprehend the considerations of employing joint and multinational forces at the operational levels of war. [I.3a]

501.31 Explain how the employment of joint and multinational forces at the operational levels of war may impact conflict resolution.

Post-hostilities operations require unity of effort. The military will have to work congruently with the other government agencies, intergovernmental organizations, non-governmental organizations, the host nation, and Coalition military forces to attain the desired end state. The military needs to develop and support a command and control structure that includes the other agencies and militaries. Eventually, as post-hostilities activities progress, the military's authority in theater will transfer to other government agencies, to the host nation, or possibly to the UN. Developing rules of engagement and targeting criteria and providing international law of armed conflict training are means of guiding the conduct of military operations to avoid problems associated with post-hostilities. These ROE and targeting criteria become increasingly difficult to coordinate in a Joint or Multi-national environment. (ACSC Research Project 95-053)

501.4 Comprehend how theory and principles of war apply at the operational level of war. [I.3b]

501.41 Discuss how an understanding of war theory contributes to end state objectives and campaign plan formulation.

• War is a continuation of politics by other means
• Principles of war point to the objective
• Conflict termination is both a science and an art
• Although the military instrument may be applied with the intent of ending hostilities or stabilizing a post-hostilities environment, it must always be exercised within a larger context that recognizes the dynamic interrelationships among the political and economic instruments of power.
• Contemporary military professionals must realize that a conflict is not necessarily resolved once the shooting stops. Plans and preparation must be made to continue expending military resources in the post-hostilities phase.
• Understanding the role of the military within this broader conflict resolution, realistically assessing how we might impact these conflicts, and effectively contributing to their ultimate resolution is prerequisite to continued attainment of our national security objectives.
• War termination strategy must involve warfighting concepts, and many of the lessons and precepts of the classical strategists are also instructive.
• The Clausewitzian concept of the culminating point has potential as the focus of a planning framework for war termination. The culminating point is a point of equilibrium between the attack and the defense, a point at which the offensive can proceed no further without becoming relatively weaker than the defending force. The culminating point might be the time both sides are ready to negotiate.
  

501.5 Comprehend the relationship between military objectives and how they support national objectives by reviewing wars, campaigns, and operations with a concentration on conflict termination. [I.3d]

501.51 Explain the importance of linking conflict resolution planning to military/political objectives and a desired end state.

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501.6 Comprehend the framework of conflict resolution.

501.61 Explain the phases of conflict resolution.

• PEACE-Economic and Political instruments dominate
• DISPUTE-A clash of Economic or political interests arises. Vital interests are not affected at this point. Mutual acceptance of national interests wanes.
• PRE-HOSTILITIES-Conflict continues; vital interests are affected. Political instruments of power and military instruments of power become more prevalent.
• HOSTILITIES-Organized and systematic violence undertaken by armed forces; both state try to impose their wills on each other. Military instruments of power dominate, but do not exclude the others.
• POST-HOSTILITIES-Marked by war, civil-military operations, MOOTW, security operations, etc. Political instruments of power are prevalent.
• SETTLEMENT-Resolution of dispute; treaty, truce, etc.

501.62 Explain the interlocking relationships among the instruments of power in various conflict environments.

To resolve a conflict at its various phases, each state will apply its instruments of power. Figure 1 indicates the relative importance the economic (E), political (P) and the military (M) instruments of power play in each phase. When a state uses its instruments of power to resolve a conflict, it should apply those instruments in a coherent and congruent strategy aimed at implementing its national objectives and attaining the state's desired end state. The end state should be defined as the political, economic, and military environment at the end of settlement, assuming settlement is possible.

501.7 Comprehend the key actors, issues, concepts, and terminology in war and conflict resolution and end state accomplishment.

501.71 Explain how particular issues in war and conflict resolution can affect end state accomplishment.

Primary Actors in War Termination

The People-The people influence government policy through public support or nonsupport. They also provide the basis of manpower for the military and control efforts provide and equip the troops. Even when the government determines foreign policy actions without direct input from the people, public opinion can have an effect on the survival of the government, particularly in societies where the government is accountable to the people for their actions. Public opinion may shift during the course of the war until the government is left with no option but to sue for peace or otherwise terminate hostilities.

The Government-The government is tasked with protecting its people and making foreign policy while ensuring national interests are protected. In the event of war, they develop political aims that serve the nation's interests and monitor the efforts to attain military success which will in turn achieve the political objective. The government must determine the amount of acceptable damage they are willing to receive and at the same time the amount of damage they are willing to inflict on the enemy. The government ensures the military achieves the desired end state to meet the desired political objective. When the war does not go well for the home team, the government may be reluctant to end the war without achieving their political aims. B.H. Liddell Hart recommended stalemate in these circumstances rather than common exhaustion as providing a better basis for a lasting peace.

The Military-The military is tasked with the actual defense of the people and vital national interests. They assess risks and advise the government on application of the military instrument of national power to achieve the political objectives. Clausewitz identified four suitable military objectives which would cause the enemy to collapse. These include destruction of the enemy military forces, conquest of territory, increase the enemy's suffering and effort to exhaust his resistance, and, finally, resist the enemy and attrit his forces. The military instrument should only be used if, by doing so, you are able to achieve the political objectives.

The Media-The media acts as an honest broker to ensure the military and government act in the best interest of the people represented. They may also act as the conscience of the people to change previously held beliefs about the necessity or justice of political and military aims. The media can change public opinion and therefore increase or erode public support for governmental policies and military actions. In recent years the media has shifted from supporting and explaining governmental actions to a role of questioning policy.

These groups influence the setting of political goals and the application of power to achieve those goals. These four actors are also primarily responsible for the resolution of conflict and the method of war termination selected in the event of conflict. Clausewitz maintained that for war to be a viable policy option, the policy, the military instrument, and the will of the people must be in agreement. Any theory which ignored these issues is useless.

Clearly, there are many factors which influence the form of war termination in each conflict. These factors may vary depending on the type of war being fought, the various actors involved and influence of third-party organizations throughout the world.

Course Objectives

• Comprehend solutions to operational problems with particular attention to issues where doctrine conflict. [PJE Area 2 - Joint Doctrine]
• Know the employment of joint and multinational forces at the operational level of war and comprehend the linkage of campaign plans to attainment of national objectives. [PJE Area 3 - Joint and Multinational Forces at the Operational Level of War]
• Comprehend the basic concepts and issues in planning and executing a conflict resolution strategy in support of a desired end state.
• Comprehend conflict resolution concepts and issues in historical, current and potential scenarios to achieve a desired end state.
• Comprehend conflict resolution concepts and issues in historical and current scenarios.

Readings

Iklé, Fred C., "Every War Must End," Book Summary

Bade, Bruce C., War Termination: Why Don't We Plan For It?

Whicker, Carl, Concepts of Campaign Termination

Cain, Anthony C., "War Termination: Planning for Engagement and Enlargement."

Allotey, et al, "Planning and Execution of Conflict Termination."

Reading Rationale

Every War Must End is the seminal publication in the subject of war and conflict resolution. Iklé argues that war and conflict resolution has been woefully neglected by historians, military strategists and foreign affairs experts alike. "Most of the exertion [in war planning] is devoted to the means-perfecting the military instruments and deciding on their use in battles and campaigns-far too little is left for relating these means to their ends." Bade's essay addresses war and conflict resolution as it bears on strategy, examining analytical, theoretical and historical views and exploring the need for war and conflict resolution planning in the military planing process. He is critical of present joint operational doctrine in dealing with war and conflict resolution. The Whicker article provides an easy to read, quick recap of the historical patterns of war and conflict resolution. Cain addresses war and conflict resolution planning as an element of a national security strategy of engagement. Finally, the 1995 research project, "Planning and Execution of Conflict Termination," provides an excellent analysis of war and conflict resolution in past conflicts, where we stand currently and gives some suggestions on how to do it better in the future.

Read these selections in the order listed. If you can get a copy of Iklé, I strongly suggest it. It is an easy read and will provide an excellent starting point for your study of war and conflict resolution. As you will soon find out while reading about this interesting subject, he is the most often cited author on the subject.

Lesson Outline

Thesis: "It is the outcome of the war, not the outcome of the campaigns within it, that determines how well their plans serve the nation's interests." (Iklé, p 2) The campaign planning process is the means by which we prepare to employ the military instrument of power. A similar process of properly terminating the employment of this instrument is equally important in accomplishing the desired strategic objective (Liddell Hart) or end state. The actual fighting during a war obviously is important to achieving the desired end state, but as Iklé and other authors point out "it is the way in which a war is brought to an end that has the most decisive long-term impact." War and conflict resolution, on a broad scale, is the bridge between war and the eventual peace. Learning how to build that bridge is often a more complex challenge for war planners than planning how to fight. Attaining a "better state of peace" can be achieved through successful war and conflict resolution and post-hostility activities. While the military does not own the entire war and conflict resolution process through completion, we establish the conditions (set the agenda) for war and conflict resolution to occur, provide the initial resources and build a path to a successful end state. There are certain steps the senior commander and his staff must take to terminate hostilities. There is much more than simply saying: "Stop fighting at midnight." The mechanics of how to terminate the war, if applied correctly, provide an orderly conclusion to the war and a smooth transition to the post-hostilities phase and eventually in achieving the strategic vision of the desired end state.

Main Point I: We will establish a common language with which you can discuss war and conflict resolution.

Main Point II: The importance of end state and formulation of objectives on the campaign planning process.

Main Point III: Introduction of a war and conflict resolution process.

Main Point IV: Key actors and issues in war and conflict resolution and end state accomplishment.

Main Point V: Overview of the historical patterns of war and conflict resolution.

Main Point VI: Key considerations that must be considered for a successful transition from war to the post-hostilities phase of conflict.

Main Point VII: Historical look at war and conflict resolution planning and execution (the "mechanics of war termination") as applied by American forces in the past.

Main Point VIII: Some of your thoughts about war and conflict resolution planning and execution for future conflicts.

Lesson Integration and Rationale

This lesson links with the other War and Conflict Resolution lessons. This is the key lesson in a new and exciting course. As you will discover as you begin to study war and conflict resolution, there are so many things to think about it becomes mind boggling. Military history is full of examples of one side winning the war yet managing to lose the peace. In every case, this was due to faulty planning and/or execution of the war and conflict resolution process. This lesson will begin to lay a foundation for you and establish a common language and framework to discuss the many roles and issues affecting the war and conflict resolution process.

Lesson OPR: War Theory and Campaign Studies Department