The key factor in the Industrial Age was the learning to think in LINEAR terms, to break down issues into manageable parts. This created specialists. Another point is that during this age the ability to modify nature was not there, but this is rapidly changing. The Information Age, or the 50 years the article says it is, is a time of profound change that has been ushered in by the creation of the microprocessor. Example: If you read the New York Times on Sunday, you will get more knowledge in one day than the average person got in a lifetime in the 1700's. The Information Age has brought the need to think system wide, "System Thinking" due to the system being vastly complex. To be able to compete, knowledge is key and if there is uncertainty, ways of overcoming this must be found. Hence, the whole forecasting lessons. (Reading #1, Petersen)

The past, or when warrior kings ruled the earth, had one, or just a few people, making all the decisions. Everything from the broadest political decisions to the tactics on the battlefield was made by the leader. Today, the complexity of the planning process means that no one man or small group can make these decisions, there is too much information and too many variables to be able to do it. (Even though some, like Saddam are trying, and we all know how well he is able to do it) The modern way to do it is as follows:

• Determine the National Security Objectives. The target
• Formulate the Grand Strategy. What instruments of power are needed to get there. (economic, political, military)
• Developing Military Strategy. The development, deployment, employment and coordination of the military IOP to get to the target.
• Designing Operational Strategy. Planning, orchestrating and directing the military in order to get to the target. (Campaign)
• Formulating Battlefield Strategy (tactics). The use of forces on the battlefield.

Remember these four: Steps are not compartmentalized, there is feedback, external factors impact the strategy and who makes the decisions. (Reading #2, Drew and Snow)

The key factors are:

• What are we trying to accomplish.
• What influences or impacts that decision.
• What have I not thought about as a result of my own prejudices and biases.

These are general guides of what to expect and what should be considered. Taken from the PowerPoint (Reading #6 page 3) Schwartz pg 49.

They are:

• Economy: Can we pay for it.
• Global Economy: Can the world afford it.
• Rise and Fall of new Super Powers: Will there be a threat.
• Technology: What new stuff will impact the forces.
• Global and national society: What will the people want/need.
• National Security Objectives: Security and Prosperity.

Taken form the PowerPoint (Reading #6, page 5)

The national objectives for the US in the year 2025 are generally as follows: we will still want to enhance our security and promote our prosperity. We expect that our objectives will remain fairly stable. There may be more, but the core ones will still be there. Taken from the PowerPoint (Reading #6 pg4).

Changes would require retooling of our force structure. If our national strategy changes, then we must build new national military objectives that support that strategy and in turn a new military to support those objectives. (the Z diagram). Look at 501.14 to get some of the underlying factors that will have to be taken into consideration. (PowerPoint, reading #6 pg 5)

• National Security Strategy
• Grand Strategy
• Military Strategy.
• Operational Strategy
• Battlefield Strategy.

501.3 Comprehend several tools available for forecasting future trends.

The idea with forecasting is to create an environment where there are few surprises. In order to do this there are various tools, models, that help in looking forward. There are two types of models, predictive and non-predictive.

The predictive are:

• Incremental: Basic character is the same, it just grows bigger
• Life-cycle(S-curve): Visual representation of cumulative growth.
• Evolutionary(exponential): New stuff, revolutionary, computers, etc. These are good because they allow us to plan requirements and needs and they give us quantifiable things to plan around. They are bad because only plot trends, don't look at various futures, don't account for change.

The non-predictive models don't limit us to plotting trends and allow us to apply any other factors that we want. They are:

• Futures Wheel: A few items and each has consequences coming from it.
• Multiple Scenario Planning: You make up the future in various different ways. It allows you to: Rehearse the future, pick warning signs, avoid surprises, allows alternative images, allows pre-testing, and is long term.

(PowerPoint and reading #7)

The answer above really covers this. The only real thing to add is to ensure that some other things are including in the model:

Future levels: (these allow us to have the right perspective on our model)

• Surface indications: (0-1 year)
• Structural/institutional change (1-7 years)
• Value/Life Style (5-20 years)
• Philosophies (10-100 years)

Remember the drivers: Politics, Economy, Technology, People, Environment.

Cone of Plausibility: Past --- Present-upper limit of plausibility---lower limit of plausibility --the future.

(PowerPoint, reading #7)

Models can help be proactive instead of reactive. The PowerPoint Example works:

1. Federal deficit rate growth in the 1980's (Incremental) (it is controlled)
2. Depreciation schedule on a home (Incremental) (it is set)
3. Subscription rate on Internet (Evolutionary) (something totally new)
4. Autos per capita in the US from 1940 to today (Life cycle/S curve) (the road can only take so much)

(PowerPoint, reading #7)

Scenario based forecasting is valuable because it allows you to rehearse the future, identify warning signs (signposts), allows for pre-testing responses. It is really valuable because is reduces or negates surprises. You can develop strategies and test them against different scenarios. (PowerPoint, reading #8)

Scenarios present alternative images instead of extrapolating current trends from the present. Scenarios allow you to add qualitative items into the mix. You make up a realistic story and go with it. The key being it must be plausible. (PowerPoint, Reading #8)

Schwartz identifies 8 steps in developing an alternative future:

1. Identify FOCAL ISSUE or decision: What issue is/can change the outcome
2. Determine KEY FORCES in local environment: The factors influencing success/failure: CUSTOMER, SUPPLIERS, COMPETITORS
3. DRIVING FORCES: The trends, i.e., Social, Economic, Political, Technological
   - Pre-determined: things you can't change
   - Critical uncertainties: things you don't know about
4. Rank order KEY FACTORS/DRIVING TRENDS: which is most important so that you can determine which ones are most likely to be realized.
5. Select the SCENARIO LOGIC or plot: Tell the story, it must be plausible and have key indicators. Should be able to plot it graphically.
6. Fleshing out the scenario: Make sure they are good, return to key factors and make sure the items fit.
7. IMPLICATIONS: Once scenario is set, check it against the focal issue and try to determine the implications if the scenario were to come true.
8. Selection of LEADING INDICATORS or SIGN POSTS: identify the key elements that will show which road your going down. Or which scenario is likely to come true. The scenario will probably not exactly be true, but you will have had the experience of looking at something similar. So the more the better as long as you don't saturate yourself.

(PowerPoint, Reading #8)

Read the selection above.

An example of an Alternative Future is the one about the national aerospace plane in the PowerPoint slides, reading #8.

The alternative futures forecast is good in that it prepares you for the future. It does not predict the future exactly. They can impact the given objective because you have had some exposure to an alternative objective and you are more informed. It may also change the course you take because you realize that there is more than one avenue of approach to the future.

Remember, most forecasts are wrong. A good forecast stimulates your thinking and leads to subsequent action.

COURSE OBJECTIVES

1. Apply tools to develop credible forecasts of the global and military environments in 2025.
2. Comprehend force structures that define rather than react to an uncertain and technologically accelerating future. (PJE Learning Area 5)
3. Comprehend the future force structure capabilities and limitations of US military forces across the range of military operations, to include force development, organization, equipment, and personnel. (PJE Learning Area 1)

Read excerpt from Petersen, The Road to 2015, A New Era Requires New Thinking

Read excerpt from Drew and Snow, Making Strategy, The Strategy Process.

Reference National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement, July 1994.

Read Forecasting Models a Brief Guide

Read The Strategic Planning Tool: A guide to the development of Alternative Futures

Read FC 501-2 Slides and Notes, Future Objectives

Read FC 501-3 Slides and Notes, Futurist Forecasting Models

Read FC 501-4 Slides and Notes, Alternative Futures

Read The Art of the Long View User's Guide (Coursebook)

Read Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future (Coursebook)

Read The Possible Futures of Multimedia-Alternative Future Example (Coursebook)

Petersen provides a clear synopsis of ways the future will differ from the past. While students may not agree with all of the author's assumptions about the past, the reading does provide a framework for looking at the future. Drew and Snow review how the process for relating military decisions to national objectives is accomplished. The National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement is the latest enunciation of those broad national objectives. Forecasting Models a Brief Guide explains the use of various predictive and non-predictive models and their applications. The Strategy Planning Tool: A guide to the development of Alternative Futures provides the methodology used for developing alternative futures, needed for the remainder of the course. Powerpoint presentations and an alternative future example in the coursebook is provided to enhance your understanding of future objectives and forecasting tools.

Thesis: The future should not be feared or taken lightly. Building a vision for the future requires an understanding of the United States future national security objectives. In addition there are several methods for forecasting trends and analyzing possible future alternatives. Each method has its own strengths and weaknesses, and like any other tool it works best when used properly. Peter Schwartz's method of forecasting trends (through the development of alternative futures) has application in the military environment.

Main Point I: The world of 2025 will provide challenges and opportunities. The military's future force structure will be influenced by the external environment and a multitude of internal factors.

Main Point II: Understanding US national goals and objectives is just as important when looking at the future as it is today. Although impossible to predict definitively, it is possible to estimate what our broad national security objectives in 2025 might be.

Main Point III: There are several models that may be used in forecasting the future. These models must be applied selectively to be useful.

Main Point IV: Scenario-based planning is a valuable tool for looking at the future. The development of alternative futures and an analysis of their implications on force structure will help us prepare for the future.