A Global War?

The most likely scenario for "The Crash" involves a surprise third world war. This scenario is based upon the theory that the Eastern powers, led by Russia, have completely deceived the world by making peace with the West, and America in particularly, in order to make war. The stage has been set such that Russia and its allies-of-old can now launch a war that the West least expects and, in turn, is least prepared for. Furthermore, this war can be started in such a way that the world will hold America and the Western powers responsible.

Militaristic, authoritarian powers such as Russia learned long ago the effectiveness of strategic deception. Just as Hitler applied a "Big Lie" dictum to manipulate his opponents and his own people, during the Cold War the so-called "communist" powers of the East became quite adapt at using deception to get their way. It is unlikely that this strategy changed with the introduction of Mikhail Gorbachev's "New Thinking" in the mid-1980's. {see: KGB defector Anatoliy Golitsyn's 'New Lies For Old' (1984), and/or 'Mesmerized by the Bear' (1987) edited by Raymond Sleeper}.

By the 1980's, Russia and the powers of the East had amassed sufficient military strength to overtake the West. However, the most effective strategy to defeat the Western powers required securing total surprise before launching an attack. Furthermore, the political costs of causing a global holocaust of mass destruction are very high; the East needed a way to reverse the blame for world war three on to the Western powers and world capitalism.

Over the past decade we have likely seen the authoritarian powers of the East, led by Russia, implement deceptive multi-year plans designed to open the way for launching a successful surprise world war against the West. First off, communism was done away with as an ideological front and there was a deceptive conversion to capitalism and democracy. Next, economic collapse and political instability were orchestrated in the "post- communist" world.

The reason that Moscow has engineered the collapse of communism is two- fold. First off, a tremendous false sense of security has been instilled in the West. By aggressively pursuing peace, friendship and cooperation with the Western powers throughout the collapse, Russia and its historical allies have significantly reinforced Western trust. The second reason for staging the collapse is to reverse the blame for causing world war three on to the West. With the communist system seemingly gone and the Eastern powers apparently weak and vulnerable, world war three can be triggered in a way that appears to be the fault of Western "imperialism" and the "internal contradictions" of the capitalist system. All in all, Moscow is hoping to win a hot war against the West by appearing to lose the Cold War.

I have been warning since 1992 that Moscow is planning to stage Zhirinovsky's rise to power in order to achieve critical strategic goals. In the paper "The Zhirinovsky Connection", which I wrote the week prior to the Russian parliamentary elections in December of 1993, I specifically predicted the surprise victory of Zhirinovsky's party since I expected the elections to be rigged.

A crucial feature of Moscow's strategy involves staging a radical power reversal in Russia so that policies of Westernization can be abruptly replaced by militant anti-Western pursuits. This way strategic surprise will be in place for any attack while blame is shifted as much as possible away from the old communist establishment and on to the West. Moscow's specific plan is to bring Vladimir Zhirinovsky to power, probably through a bogus coup, prior to launching its attack.

The whole idea is to stage Zhirinovsky's rise to power and the outbreak of global war such that the Western powers and world capitalism appear responsible. This will be achieved in two ways. First off, according to Marxist-Leninist doctrine, if democracy fails to serve the purposes of capitalism, then democracy is overthrown and replaced with a facist dictatorship. This is supposedly what happened in Germany during the 1930's and led to the second world war. By transforming Russia into a capitalist democracy, and by having Russian society collapse into the same situation as Weimar Germany, the stage has been set for a shift to facism and the rise of a militant, Hitler-like dictator: Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Moscow can then wage an all-out third world war against the West and later attribute the world's destruction to the failings of the capitalist system. This, in turn, will create a pretext for establishing a global totalitarian state in the place of the capitalist system that was militarily destroyed.

Another way Moscow plans to shift blame for global war on to the West is by underhandedly provoking the U.S. and its allies into taking military action against Russian allies-of-old. With the collapse of communism, the U.S. has taken on the role of "world policeman". This has provided Moscow an opportunity to lure the U.S. and its military allies into a trap, particularly by using the United Nations.

Over the past few years, Moscow has underhandedly orchestrated international crises using Russian puppet states like Iraq, Serbia and North Korea. In response to these crises, i.e., Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the civil war in Yugoslavia, and the nuclear confrontation on the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. has sought to gain international support for applying sanctions and military pressure by acting in the context of the United Nations. Thus, since Washington needs Russia's cooperation and approval in the Security Council to take any actions, the West's response to the instigated crises can be monitored and specifically tailored to suit Moscow's objectives.

The ultimate goal is to draw America and the Western allies into military conflicts with Russian allies-of-old. Consequently, it may appear as if the U.S. is abusing its powers as world policeman so that the "imperialist" West can dominate the world at Moscow's expense. This will create a false pretense for massive Russian military aggression against the West. Furthermore, after the U.S. and the Western allies are destroyed, Moscow can create a world government to replace the United Nations and the "New World Order" that was supposedly run so recklessly by Washington and the capitalist West.

In February of 1993 and 1994 I wrote editorials warning of how the civil war in Yugoslavia is a trap set by Moscow. The idea is to draw the West into a major military conflict with the Serbs, Russia's historical slavic ally, in order to create a nationalist backlash in Moscow and, in turn, a false pretense for a third world war.

One Russian ally-of-old the West is being lured into a military conflict with by way of the U.N. is Russia's slavic brethren the Serbs. There are indications that the war in the Balkans will soon explode. Since Croatia recently requested the U.N. to remove peacekeepers from its territory, there is movement toward a new war between the Croats and Serbs. Furthermore, last December the Bosnian Serbs called upon Jimmy Carter to help forge a ceasefire that went into effect at the beginning of the year. The lull in fighting has allowed the Serbs to regroup and reinforce their forces, thus setting the stage for a wider Balkan war.

As the Balkan conflict heats-up, the Western allies will inevitably be drawn into the fray. First off, NATO will be called upon to defend U.N. peacekeepers caught in the middle of the fighting. Secondly, the Western powers will seek to forcefully prevent the conflict from spreading into a regional war.

Clearly, if the U.S. and NATO are drawn into a war against the Serbs, then there will be a nationalist backlash in Russia. In fact, there are strong indications that a Balkan trap will be used as a pretext for Vladimir Zhirinovsky to launch a third world war against the West. Zhirinovsky has visited Serbia and met with Serb leaders on several occassions over the past few years. During these visits, he has vowed to have Russia militarily defend the Serbs against NATO attacks. Thus, Western military involvement in the Balkans will seemingly act as a catalyst of violent Russian nationalism and, in turn, a third world war. One should note that, by using a Balkan trap to trigger world war three, Moscow hopes to mask its premeditated pursuit of a conflict with the West since the first world war was spontaneously triggered from ethnic conflict there.

One of the main reasons I noticed that Moscow is creating an unprecedented global deception is because of the Persian Gulf crisis and war triggered by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August of 1990. There were profound inconsistencies and contradictions surrounding events in the Gulf and the behavior of Iraq and Russia which strongly indicated things were not what they seemed. After a thorough investigation, I concluded that the Persian Gulf crisis and war were part of a large-scale strategic deception being engineered by Moscow. My ideas are covered in depth in the paper "The Persian Gulf Deception", which I wrote over the course of 1991 and 1992.

Another Russian ally-of-old that may soon provoke Western military action is Saddam Hussein's Iraq. The main goal is to create the image that Iraq is a victim of relentless U.S. imperialist aggression. Over the past year or so Saddam has been laying low and cooperating with the U.N., thus putting pressure on members of the Security Council to ease the economic sanctions against Iraq. Then, last October, just as a monitoring system for weapons of mass destruction was up and running and there was movement toward implementation of a timetable for lifting the sanctions, Saddam ordered his forces to mass on the Kuwaiti border as he did before invading in 1990. This threatening move provoked a major U.S. military build-up in Kuwait and the Gulf region and has insured that sanctions against Iraq will not be lifted for the foreseeable future.

With Saddam's latest provocation against the world community, Moscow suddenly and very suspiciously stepped in to support Iraq's efforts to end economic sanctions. Russian Foreign Minister Kozyrev paid a visit to Baghdad during the October crisis and promised Saddam that he would seek to have the sanctions lifted if Iraq formally recognized Kuwait. However, this promise was never endorsed by the U.N. or Washington, nor, given Saddam's recent stunt, was there any reason to believe the U.S. and the allies would ever go along with such an agreement.

In November, just before a U.N. review of Iraq's compliance with the Gulf War ceasefire resolutions, Iraq formally declared Kuwait's recognition. Thus, a Security Council showdown has started between Moscow and Washington over lifting the economic sanctions against Iraq. Since the U.S. will continue to veto any moves to lift the sanctions, the stage appears to be set for a violent crisis to erupt from the impasse. Supposedly because of continuing economic sanctions, Saddam has an excuse to start fighting with the U.S. once again. One possibility is that he will initially provoke Washington into taking military action against Iraq, perhaps by moving some forces below the 32nd parallel in violation of a recent Security Council resolution.

If hostilities are renewed against Iraq, Saddam will have a pretext for a radical military response. Since it will appear that the West is seeking to do away with Saddam once and for all, the Iraqi dictator will have an excuse to pull-off a seemingly irrational, kamikazee attack against his "imperialist enemies". Given his threat to "make fire eat up half of Israel" just before he invaded Kuwait in 1990, Saddam may be planning to launch a chemical SCUD attack against Israel. That the Iraqi dictator has something like this in mind seems even more evident given a recent speech in which Saddam stated: "The Arab countries should be asking themselves, 'Who will fire the 40th missile against Israel?'". Iraq launched 39 SCUD missiles against Israel during the Gulf War. Obviously, if Saddam launches a chemical SCUD attack against Israel, an unprecedented crisis will be triggered in the Middle East that could involve a new Arab/Israeli war.

There is little doubt that Saddam's Iraq is linked to Zhirinovsky and world war three. Zhirinovsky's first diplomatic trip abroad was to Baghdad in 1992. When allied air-strikes were carried out against Iraq in January of 1993, Zhirinovsky sent a delegation of paramilitary "volunteers" to defend Iraq from "reckless aggression by America and Israel". Following the crisis last October, Zhirinovsky paid a visit to Baghdad and took part in an "International Legal Congress on the Cancellation of Sanctions Against Iraq". Toward the end of this month, Zhirinovsky is scheduled to visit Baghdad again to discuss the lifting of economic sanctions. This trip will coincide with the fourth anniversary of the end of the Gulf War and the second anniversary of the World Trade Center bombing which has been linked to Iraq. Thus, Moscow may be up to something involving Saddam Hussein and Vladimir Zhirinovsky in the near future.

During the summer of 1994, I sent out numerous editorials, dubbed "The Korean Diversion, The Zhirinovsky Connection, and World War Three", to newspapers and magazines across the country warning of how Moscow may underhandedly ignite a conflict on the Korean Peninsula as part of a strategic diversion.

A final historical ally of Russia that may soon become militarily involved with the West is North Korea.

According to the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff at the time, North Korea invaded South Korea under orders from Moscow in 1950. Washington responded to this blatant violation of international law in the context of the United Nations. Since Moscow was suspiciously absent at the time of the Security Council vote, the U.S. received U.N. backing for entering the war to support South Korea against North Korea's aggression. This initial use of the U.N. for American military intervention was likely when Moscow first realized that the U.N. could be used to manipulate Western military and foreign policy.

Every indication is that North Korea is again being used by Moscow to provoke U.S. military action. By stirring a confrontation with the United States over its nuclear weapons program and creating an image of political instability, North Korea is setting the stage to reinvade South Korea.

The current situation was developing throughout 1994. Between March and May of last year the North Koreans blocked IAEA inspections while they shut down their nuclear power plant at Yongbyon and removed 8,000 spent fuel rods. Once such rods have cooled for several months, they can be reprocessed into bomb-grade plutonium that can be used to build five or six nuclear weapons. To keep North Korea from doing this, Washington began threatening sanctions against Pyongyang and restarted high-level talks in order to reach an agreement to end the North's nuclear weapons program.

Movement toward international sanctions against North Korea was stopped short by Jimmy Carter's visit to Pyongyang last June. Carter met with Kim Il-Sung, the country's leader up until that time, and reached a tentative agreement that seemed to resolve the developing crisis. Though Kim Il-Sung had been preparing to forcefully reunify the Korean Peninsula ever since the last Korean War ended in a stalemate, the aged leader seemed to have an unbelievable change of heart upon Carter's visit. Sung proposed holding the first North/South summit in fifty years, he called for a reduction in the armies of both sides to 100,000 soldiers from current levels of around 600,000 (actually northern forces are estimated to be well over a million), and Sung offered to freeze the North's nuclear program and restart high- level talks with Washington.

On July 8th, the very day that high-level talks between Washington and Pyongyang restarted, North Korea reported that Kim Il-Sung had died from an "unexpected disease" of the heart. Sung's son, Kim Jong-Il, who supposedly had been groomed to replace his father for some twenty years, was put at the nation's helm. Since the sudden death of Kim Il-Sung led to a cancellation of high-level talks between Washington and Pyongyang, and because Kim Jong-Il is reported to be sickly and possibly insane, the crisis over North Korea's nuclear pursuits reemerged- with the added danger of political instability in Pyongyang.

(The odds are that the untimely death of Kim Il-Sung in early-July from an "unexpected disease" was not what it seemed. 'Defense and Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy' journal received word at the end of June that significant change was imminent in North Korea and consequently chose to hold-off publishing its July edition for several days. Therefore, Sung's "unexpected disease" was somehow anticipated by someone.)

Compounding the seeming danger of political turmoil in North Korea, last year Pyongyang mysteriously saw the return of potential rivals for the throne such as Kim Il Sung's brother, Kim Yong-Ju, and Kim Jong-Il's step- brother, Kim Pyong-Il. The indication is that the stage is being set, most likely intentionally, for some sort of bogus power struggle in North Korea- signs of which the Pyongyang has been relaying to the world ever since Kim Il-Sung died.

High-level talks between Washington and Pyongyang resumed last August, and at the end of October an agreement was finally reached to settle the nuclear stand-off. Apparently intimidated by the seeming prospect of political turmoil in North Korea, Washington made huge concessions with Pyongyang in order to reach an agreement that would freeze the North's nuclear program, open the way for IAEA inspections, and insure that the 8,000 cooling fuel rods are not reprocessed into bomb-grade plutonium.

Now that an accord is reached, the stage is set for a total reversal. There is little question that North Korea is planning to invade the South in the near-future. The North just completed a two-year program to reorganize their defense and intelligence establishments, and its armed forces are now mobilized and reinforced in forward positions optimal for launching a surprise attack. In order to justify an attack, the nuclear stand-off may be used to force Washington's hand. Pyongyang will probably stage some sort of power struggle and possibly violate the new agreement with Washington, maybe by removing the spent fuel rods from safe storage. As the U.S. responds by applying economic sanctions and possibly military pressure, the North can invade the South.

One of Moscow's possible motives for igniting the Korean Peninsula is to create some kind of strategic diversion. A major concern of American commanders during the last Korean war was that the conflict was a precursor to a full-scale war with Russia. The Joint Chiefs of Staff were fairly certain that Moscow was behind North Korea's surprise invasion of South Korea in June of 1950, and, as the war expanded, there was a growing concern that the Soviets were seeking to divert U.S. military resources into the Far East in order to open the way for an offensive against Western Europe. Such a concern may be relevant to a new war in Korea, except that Russia's eventual target is more likely Israel and the Middle East rather than Western Europe.

That a Korean conflict is an important part of Vladimir Zhirinovsky's bogus rise to power and the outbreak of world war three is indicated by the fact that Zhirinovsky and a large delegation from his political party took part in an unprecedented visit to North Korea last October. He was invited by the new North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Il. Zhirinovsky's visit was most remarkable given that he was the first foreign politician to go to North Korea following Kim Il-Sung's death. In fact, it took place before the end of the 100-day mourning period for the late North Korean leader.

All in all, by luring the West into conflicts with Russian allies-of- old, Moscow creates a pretext for launching world war three. First off, a bogus Zhirinovsky coup can be thrown in Moscow, possibly along with an untimely demise of Boris Yeltsin from ill-health or death. Meanwhile, due to a "nationalist backlash" stemming from Western "imperialist aggression" against historical Russian allies like the Serbs, a pretext is created for launching world war three. With flashpoints like the Balkans, the Persian Gulf and the Korean Peninsula ignited, the stage will be set for Russia to wage a "Last Dash to the South", the title of Zhirinovsky's supposed autobiography.

Zhirinovsky's "Last Dash to the South" apparently outlines military/strategic objectives Moscow is hoping to achieve. What is planned is a Russian military campaign to dominate an arc of territory to Russia's south stretching from the Balkans in the west all the way to East Asia. Undoubtedly a major goal is to overrun the Middle/Near East so that Moscow will have almost total control of the world's oil supply. Since the global economy is wholly dependent on oil, Russia will gain control of the world.

Given the focus on oil, the odds are that the Middle East will be a primary target as Moscow's military campaign gets underway. In fact, Russia may be planning to use an Arab/Israeli conflict as some sort of trigger for global nuclear war.

Moscow's last dash south and preparations for global nuclear conflict may begin with a conflict in the Caucasus and instigating some sort of Russian conflict with the Ukraine. In terms of conventional mobilization and moving Russian forces south, Moscow may use current military intervention in the breakaway republic of Chechnya or a flare-up in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan as some sort of cover. As for mobilizing Russia's strategic nuclear forces, a useful pretext is a conflict with the Ukraine over the Crimea. Since a significant share of Russia's nuclear weapons are located in the Ukraine, any such conflict will mask mobilizing Russia's nuclear forces for an attack against the West.

In the epilogue of my 1992 paper, "The Persian Gulf Deception", I outlined how recent developments in the Middle East might be part of Moscow's strategy for global war: "In the context of a grand strategy by the East to deceive the West, the current Arab/Israeli peace talks should be considered a strategic deception. The purpose of such a deception would likely be two-fold: 1.) to set the stage for a 'surprise' Arab/Israeli war, and 2.) to insure world war three is blamed on the West rather than the East." The recent peace agreements signed by Israel and the P.L.O. as well as Israel and Jordan are likely false. Undoubtedly the current false peace in the Middle East will be followed by war.

Once sufficient peace is achieved, the Arabs will probably seek to provoke Israel and/or the U.S. into triggering war. One possibility I pointed out in 1992 is that: "As the Arabs pursue peace, they increasingly appear to be peace-oriented rather than belligerent. Meanwhile, Israel appears to be increasingly belligerent rather than peaceful because stepped-up terrorist attacks have provoked Israeli raids against terrorist factions in southern Lebanon. By linking a future war to Israeli action in Lebanon, the Arabs could significantly reverse any blame."

Another possibility I mentioned in my 1992 paper was that: "...war could be set-off in the Middle East in a way that appears to be the West's fault by having Saddam provoke a crisis with the West and then launch a kamikazee attack against Israel. Following an Iraqi chemical attack against the Jewish state- an action which would revive memories of Hitler's gassing of the Jews- Israeli retaliation will be both assured and severe. Israel's military response could, in turn, be used by the Arabs- particularly Syria- as a pretense for war that, due to the current peace efforts, would effectively be a surprise."

As I wrote in 1992: "All in all, by using Iraq, and possibly Lebanon, to spawn a primary crisis, the Arabs could launch an attack against Israel and have it appear to be the West's fault."

The likely goal of any Arab attack against Israel is to provoke "The Samson Option". The Samson Option is Israel's doctrine of nuclear retaliation against the Arabs and their allies, including Russia, in the event that Israel is hopelessly overrun. It is likely that Moscow intends to use such an Israeli nuclear response as an excuse for an all-out nuclear attack against the West.

In conclusion, the world may soon experience virtual self-destruction in the form of an all-out East/West conflict. With a bogus Zhirinovsky coup thrown in Moscow and Western military intervention provoked at flashpoints around the world, the stage will be set for the East to launch a massive attack against the West. This expectation is derived from the realization that, over the past several years, the communist world intentionally brought about its own seeming collapse in order to deceive the West into a false sense of security and open the way for waging a surprise third world war. Undoubtedly, after the dust settles from this apocalyptic conflict, the old communist establishment will reemerge, apparently blame-free, under the veil of orthodox christianity and claim that it is saving the world from the evils of the capitalist system, liberal democracy and the West. Russia can then create a global authoritarian government in the place of the United States and United Nations.