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The downside of swift victory in Iraq

By: Paul Crespo
June 17, 2003

After Bush's military victory in Iraq, frustrated critics continue to focus on the ''chaos'' in the country, ongoing attacks on U.S. troops and ''growing'' opposition to the U.S. presence there. Yet, while there are certainly serious security concerns and U.S. troops are still being killed, closer examination may paint a more-nuanced picture.

Some of these issues are overblown; others are the price we're paying for an unprecedented swift and humane military campaign.

Much media attention is highlighting the problems that our forces in Iraq face, often portraying large numbers of ungrateful Iraqis opposing the American ''occupation.'' Yet recent reports I've received from field-grade military officers there describe a sightly different reality.

One Marine officer, who traveled across a third of Iraq and met with hundreds of Iraqis, told me only slightly tongue-in-cheek: ''If G.W. Bush came to Iraq now, he'd be elected president. The vast majority of Iraqis are extremely grateful to the United States and don't want us to leave just yet.'' He added that much of the recent news reporting has been superficial and sensationalist, focusing on the relatively few confrontations, skewing the big picture.

Yes, there are problems, and, sadly, some of our soldiers are dying, but we're only over a month into a long-term pacification and reconstruction campaign in a country with 28 million people. By any historical standards, things there are not nearly as bad as some would suggest. Despite the protests and complaints, most Iraqis seem to support U.S. efforts and want our forces to provide security against remaining loyalists of Saddam Hussein.

Some Iraqis say that many of the recent ''spontaneous'' protests were organized by former Ba'ath Party cadres or by Iranian subversive groups operating in Iraq. Signs at some rallies were printed in Persian Farsi rather than Arabic. Often the first words out of a Hussein loyalist being interviewed by a reporter are: ''I'm not for Saddam, but the U.S. must leave.''

The opposition to US troops is mostly concentrated in the region west and north of Baghdad and around Tikrit dominated by Sunni Muslims who formed the core of the Ba'ath Party. It still doesn't appear to have widespread support beyond there.

IN INTIFADA FASHION

In some cases, confrontations have been staged in true Palestinian intifada fashion. When U.S. troops arrive, militants fire from behind a protesting crowd, provoking a firefight where innocent civilians might die. Pre-arranged militant spokespersons spread throughout the crowd and, passing for civilian bystanders, are pushed forward to the gullible press, complaining that U.S. troops fired without provocation. Many people now have a greater understanding of the terrorist tactics the Israelis deal with daily.

Unfortunately, after a swift victory, our humane military campaign left thousands of Hussein's dedicated and trained security personnel alive and kicking. One day, they ran from the 3rd Infantry Division and Marines, avoiding combat; the next, they reconstituted themselves into gun-toting ''civilians'' -- looting, instigating and shooting at our forces. They may now be trying to reorganize.

Hussein's Iraq was a totalitarian fascist state; only a much longer and more-brutal war that systematically killed many more Hussein loyalists could have lessened the current dangers and difficulties that our forces are facing. The challenge now is to remove these remaining regime holdouts as quickly as possible to ensure security and stability. This was highlighted when U.S. troops recently arrested 15 high-ranking Iraqi police officers, including six generals, and charged them with trying to reorganize elements of the deposed Ba'ath Party.

COORDINATED ATTACKS

Fortunately, the attacks against our troops so far seem to be relatively sporadic. While displaying some local coordination, they don't yet appear to be part of a larger, concerted terror campaign or insurgency; though this could be changing. Considering how many of these militant Hussein loyalists survived the war, the number and scale of attacks are still relatively small, but the potential danger is larger.

Clearly more troops and more-aggressive rules of engagement are needed in the short run, before things get worse. U.S. officials seem to be adjusting to this fact. Before U.S. forces can be drawn down, the remnants of Hussein's regime must be neutralized. This may require sending in fresh combat troops to relentlessly pursue remaining regime thugs. Better civil affairs efforts by our military, and more effective Iraqi policing may also lessen tensions.

It may take a while to bring all these criminals to justice and establish order, but it needs to be done. Only then can we claim real success. This war isn't quite over yet.





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