1998-99 EFHL Season Preview and Projections
I would call the auction a success and would plan on it again for next season. It took less than 2 1/2 hours once we actually got started, which was less time than I thought it would take. I think the open auction kept it going and that everyone who voted against it (including me) was convinced that it worked out very well. I guess that is why the league is a democracy. I like the suggestion that we each chip in $2 and pay someone outside the league $20 to keep the auction moving even faster. It would be less for me to worry about. But I don't mind if someone wants an extra couple seconds to think or look up something.
This is a summary of the rule changes that were made and discussed before the auction.
Be sure to e-mail me who you will be reserving before the start of the season on Friday. You will need to reserve one forward, one defenseman, and one goalie. Don't make me guess. I will just reserve your last picks at each position, regardless of injuries or holdouts. As we discussed, you can make roster moves between now and the start of the season. Moves (except trades) before then won't count towards your 20. You can put injured guys on IR, but you can't put holdouts on IR. Also, and this is of some importance, although the first "week" is 12 days (Oct. 9 through Oct. 20), you can make moves through our normal Wednesday deadline (before the games start) on Oct. 14. So if you have a guy hurt over this weekend, you are not screwed for 9 days or so. I will probably sent out stats Wed. night.
I have already sent out the rosters and schedule. If you are on AOL and are having trouble receiving attachments let me know because, like last season, I probably won't post much to the web site. The rules and schedule will be posted, but who knows what else. I know you guys would like to have updated rosters posted regularly on the site to help in picking up free agents, but it probably won't happen. But here is a hint for the Excel impaired to help find out if a guy is available. Use the latest stats file that I have sent and click on Edit, Find. Enter the player's last name and click on Find Next. Even if it finds the player, if he has an X next to him, he may be available.
The divisions are as follows. The Medicine Hat division will consist of Brett, Chris, Jay, Grant, and Rick. The Moose Jaw division is Tony, Mike, Rich, Charlie, and Bill. I think it is clear which division will be stronger.
Now to my fearless predictions. Please don't take them personally and remember that they are based only upon opening rosters. In some cases, I am not even considering the seventh forward or the fifth defensemen if he sucks because he can be replaced easily enough. If it weren't for the inevitable impact free agents and key injuries, I am sure these predictions would be right on target. Actually my predictions for last season weren't too far off. I correctly picked Rick as points winner and Bill second, although I had Mike tied with Bill. I did worse on the playoff picks, missing both teams in the finals. I did pick 5 of the 6 playoff teams correct though, although that is no big deal.
Medicine Hat Division
Brett - For as much as he complained about the auction, his team looks pretty good. Wait a minute, I just noticed his defensemen. Could be a problem and to make matters worse, two of his first three are holdouts. However, any team with Lindros and Forsberg (and Koivu) has some potential. I also like Lehtinen a lot this year. In a possible preview of things to come, and certainly consistent with his past, Lindros is hurt already with a groin injury. He should be back for the season opener, but this doesn't bode well for the future. Fuhr/Vernon brings the defense/goalie grade down a notch.
Grades: Forwards A; Defense/Goalies C+; Overall B+
Chris - I know Chris likes his team and it looks OK, but no team at this time looks that dominant. He has Kariya again for the third time in four years. (Let's bid him up next season.) His team looks very similar to mine, with two superstars (although Sakic is a bit below Leclair), some guys with potential, and pretty strong defensemen. However, he has three holdouts (Ozolinsh, Niedermayer, and Friesen) and wasted his last two defensemen picks on Jovanovski and Redden. I am going to assume one of his defensemen holds out for a little while and that he finds a decent free agent defensemen.
Grades: Forwards A-; Defense/Goalies A-; Overall A-
Jay - Not a bad rookie effort. Jagr could be a bit worse that last year with Francis gone and Modano could be better playing with Hull. Turgeon should remain productive even without Hull. Defensemen are a bit old and not particularly strong, but could be OK. Osgood helps bring the grade up a touch.
Grades: Forwards B+; Defense/Goalies B; Overall B+
Grant - As I said before, my team is similar to Chris'. I couldn't pass on Sakic for $21. I got Robitaille because at the time I was desparate for forwards and hey, he had a couple of great preseason games. My next three forwards (Daze, Kapenan, and Samsonov) have huge potential but could leave me scrambling too. It is always good to hear someone (Mike) curse up a storm after you have selected your sixth forward (Samsonov). I like my defensemen but overpaid ($15) for Leetch.
Grades: Forwards B+; Defense/Goalies A; Overall A-
Rick - Palffy is the key to his team. $28 may have been a little steep for a holdout. And this one seems to be one of the uglier holdouts. But who knows. I have to assume it won't last too long. Rick got into a little trouble at the auction after he left himself $3 to fill 3 roster spots. Defensemen are better than average but Barrasso/Joseph are average at best.
Grades: Forwards B+; Defense/Goalies B; Overall B+
Moose Jaw Division
Tony - Tony takes the best career regular season record (27-14) into this season and may be able to pad it further in what seems to be the weaker of the two divisions. Not that his team is great, but it is not bad either. He basically got what he paid for. It doesn't matter because it was the last pick of the draft, but everyone that was paying attention at that point got a good chuckle out of his pick of Gerald Diduck.
Grades: Forwards B+; Defense/Goalies B+; Overall B+
Mike - Mike's strategy was clear enough - fill up the roster with mid-priced forwards and a good goaltender and bargain shop for defensemen. I would like to shoot holes in this strategy, but his team, including his defensemen, looks pretty good. His top six forwards are very solid, though not spectacular. If there is a hot free agent, he may have trouble deciding which player to drop. On defense, getting Zhitnik (although a holdout) and Svehla for $1 are steals. With Belfour, he is probably guaranteed 35 wins and 8-10 shutouts.
Grades: Forwards A-; Defense/Goalies B+; Overall A-
Rich - I see some trades with Rick coming soon. Bure is a gamble, but could be a bargain at $17. Even if Bure plays right away, I don't see him matching last year's stats. Other than Bure, I just don't see a lot of promise at forward. Defense is a little better than average and Hasek is good. Overpaid for Barnes ($8) and B. Mironov ($7).
Grades: Forwards C+; Defense/Goalies B+; Overall B-
Bill - I think Bill is going to have a tough time defending his EFHL cup championship. He has no true superstar forwards, but unlike Mike some of Bill's guys have some big question marks. For example, when will Nieuwendyk play and will be return to last year's form, even with Hull present? How often will Mogilny be hurt and will he try? Will Gratton reach his potential finally? His old guy defensemen are actually decent. There are worse old men he could have. Brodeur is good although it will be interesting to see how the Devils' style of play changes under the new coach Robbie Ftorek.
Grades: Forwards C+; Defense/Goalies B+; Overall B-
Charlie - Lem recovered nicely from missing out on the big name players, although the defensemen he acquired aren't the greatest. Some might consider this to be a team without a superstar, but I think that Hull could return to at least the 40 goal plateau in Dallas and Federov could be a 90-100 point NHL scorer. (Although I seem to be among the minority on Federov.) Just another average team in this division.
Grades: Forwards B+; Defense/Goalies B-; Overall B
Projected Standings and Points
Medicine Hat |
W |
L |
Points |
|
Moose Jaw |
W |
L |
Points |
Chris |
12 |
9 |
930 |
|
Mike |
12 |
9 |
910 |
Grant |
12 |
9 |
890 |
|
Tony |
11 |
10 |
870 |
Jay |
11 |
10 |
850 |
|
Charlie |
10 |
11 |
840 |
Rick |
10 |
11 |
830 |
|
Bill |
9 |
12 |
770 |
Brett |
9 |
12 |
810 |
|
Rich |
9 |
12 |
740 |
Playoff Results
First Round |
Semi-finals |
EFHL Finals |
Grant defeats Jay |
Chris defeats Grant |
Mike defeats Chris |
Tony defeats Charlie |
Mike defeats Tony |
|
In the points predictions, I have taken the addition of goalies into consideration. Also, I think scoring may be up a little with the rule changes. That makes two years in a row I picked Mike to win the playoffs. Sorry, Mike. The only thing I know for sure is that I spent too much time trying to figure out these projections.
Like last season, you should get the weekly stats late Wednesday night. In most weeks, a newsletter will follow a day or two after the stats. In addition, I will occasionally include the usual bonus stats. Good luck to everyone.