USF Bowl Possibilities
(October 17, 2006)

The South Florida Bulls are 5-2 and, needing just one more victory to be bowl eligible, would appear to be in good shape. USF would likely have to win more than just one game and even two wins with a 7-5 record is not a bowl lock.

The Bulls have had some big wins. At North Carolina, at Central Florida and a blowout of Connecticut. Freshman Matt Grothe has emerged as the quarterback of the present and the future. Suspended players have returned and this young football team could be a force in the Big East Conference for years to come. But, what are the chances of seeing a thirteenth game this season?

The Big East, with Notre Dame in the mix, has agreements to go to a maximum of six bowls. A look at the remaining schedule for the Big East teams and the bowl games will lead to further discussion of the possibility of USF going to the postseason for the second consecutive year.

West Virginia, 6-0, 1-0 Big East, ranked 5th (BCS) - Plays at Pittsburgh, but more importantly at Louisville. Other than Louisville game, which should determine the league champion, Mountaineers will likely roll.

Louisville 6-0, 1-0, 7th (BCS) - Also plays at Pittsburgh and at Rutgers, but home game against West Virginia is huge.

Rutgers 6-0, 1-0, 16th (BCS) - Games at West Virginia and Pittsburgh will be tough. Also plays host to Louisville.

Pittsburgh 6-1, 2-0, 26th (AP/USA Today) - Has Rutgers at home and the schedule closes with home games against West Virginia and Louisville.

USF 5-2, 1-1 - Hosts Pittsburgh, but closes with games at Louisville and at West Virginia.

Connecticut 3-3, 0-1 - At Louisville and at Rutgers should offset home games against West Virginia and Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati 3-4, 0-2 - A win over Syracuse and that might be it, however, the Bearcats are favored over USF this Sunday night.

Syracuse 3-4, 0-2 - Probably underdogs in every game from here.

We also need to consider Notre Dame and Navy, which will be explained later. For Notre Dame, 5-1, 8th (BCS), a home game against UCLA and game at USC are the only possible losses left. Navy (5-2) plays Notre Dame, but games with Duke, Eastern Michigan, Temple and Army should make them bowl eligible.

The six bowl tie-ins for the Big East begin with the Bowl Championship Series. The league champion is guaranteed one of the ten BCS spots and Notre Dame could also get a BCS bid. The loser of the West Virginia/Louisville game could possibility move into the BCS mix, if they are 11-1. These three teams will not likely all make the BCS games and the Gator Bowl gets first pick of who falls from the BCS picture. The Meineke Car Care Bowl would get the next pick out of the Big East, however, they have a one-year agreement to take Navy, provided the Midshipman are bowl eligible. The Texas Bowl and International Bowl select next, followed by the Birmingham Bowl, which has the option of taking a MAC team.

Based on rankings and records, and provided there are not a bunch of upsets in the remaining conference games, here is how things could pan out. West Virginia, Louisville and Notre Dame could share the BCS bids with the odd man out going to the Gator Bowl. Since the Meineke Car Care Bowl takes Navy, Rutgers would go to the Texas Bowl. Pittsburgh goes to the International Bowl and USF get the Birmingham Bowl. If one of the top three falls out of the BCS picture, there would be a domino effect and USF could be looking elsewhere.

South Florida could win two of the last five to finish 7-5 and still be shutout of the bowl bids. Another factor is that other conferences may not have enough eligible teams to fulfill their bowl commitments. That is when USF's lack of tradition, and that the school only brought 5,200 to Charlotte last year, might be obstacles. There are 32 bowl games this season, meaning opportunities for 64 eligible teams, so the Bulls would still have a shot.

There is another scenario. If USF wins its last five games, and Rutgers loses twice, the Bulls would win the Big East title and a BCS bid. It is likely that Rutgers will lose twice, however, even the most diehard fan realizes how tough it would be to win late November games at both Louisville and West Virginia. Not that games against Pittsburgh, Syracuse and at Cincinnati are locks.

It is fun to ponder the possibilities, but all the USF football team should be thinking about right now is Cincinnati.