Big East Stretch Run for USF
(October 10, 2005)

The University of South Florida has had a week off to prepare for a Big East Conference stretch run that could realistically produce the school's first bowl bid. After an exciting first half to the season, the next two weeks should go a long way to deciding the Bulls fate.

USF has started 3-2 and the out-of-conference schedule went pretty much as expected. The defense played well in two losses against teams currently ranked in the top ten. Slow starts at Penn State and Miami, along with a struggling offense, lead to a 23-13 loss to the Nittany Lions and a 27-7 defeat at the hands of the Hurricanes. Two homes games against state foes were routs. The Bulls rolled against FAMU 37-3 and UCF 31-14. The biggest win in school history came in the Big East opener. With ninth ranked, and conference favorite, Louisville in town, the Bulls posted a dominating 45-14 victory over the Cardinals. Easily the biggest victory in school history, it was the first time USF defeated a team ranked by the AP. Fans began to look ahead at the possibilities.

Saturday's first Big East road game should provide some clues as to how the stretch run will proceed. Pittsburgh (2-4, 1-1) has been struggling and its victory last week over Cincinnati was its first against a Division I-A opponent. Still, the Bulls are three point underdogs. Since USF topped Louisville, West Virginia (5-1, 2-0) may be the team to beat in the conference. The dream of being Big East champs, and going to a BCS bowl game, will end if the Bulls lose both these games.

USF will have another bye week before playing three of its last four on the road. Rutgers (3-2, 1-1) has been inconsistent, however, they could be in the bowl mix. Syracuse (1-4, 0-2) has been struggling, but winning at the Carrier Dome on the day they retire Jim Brown's number will not be an easy task. The home game is against Cincinnati (2-3, 0-2), who looks like the worst team in the conference right now. The season finale is at very much improved Connecticut (4-1, 1-0).

If the Bulls lose at Pittsburgh, they still have the West Virginia game to recover. If they defeat Pittsburgh and lose to West Virginia, USF could still win the conference title by winning out. Again, these next two weeks may be the key. If both are losses, then a promising record dips below .500 and a bowl will be tough.

Of the six games left, West Virginia looks the toughest, while Cincinnati appears the easiest. The remaining four, while the games should be competitive, are all on the road. A split in the final six makes USF 6-5 and bowl eligible. Winning four of six, and finishing 7-4, guarantees a bowl bid. Go 8-3, by winning five of six, and the odds are that the Bulls will play on New Year's Day. Yes, USF controls its own destiny and winning out puts them in a BCS bowl. Reality check: USF will be probably be underdogs in every game expect Cincinnati, so a losing record and no bowl are not out of the question.

If South Florida wants to capitalize on the big win over Louisville, it will just have to take it a game at a time. The defense should keep the Bulls in most games and the offensive will have to step up. Since conference play always sees a ratcheting up in the intensity, the task ahead will not be easy. USF's goal was to play major college football. Well, they are right in the middle of it now.