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Post Draft Newsletter
It's time for the annual 1999 pre-season predictions.
We'll start with the Dewey division, although I use the word division loosely when speaking of the Dewey. This division consists of Montezuma's Revenge, the Bearded Clams, NFC Norris and King of Dogs, one fourth year team, two two-year teams and the newest OFFL franchise. None had a dominant draft (although in fairness to them, no team's draft stood out this year).
The Dewey has two of the top three QBs in Brett Favre and Steve Young plus a rising Jake Plummer. However, Montezuma's Revenge has none of these. Steve McNair is the Revenge starting QB. McNair, a perennial FFL underachiever will try to prove his critics wrong in '99. He is joined in the Revenge lineup by Robert Smith and Cory Dillon at RB, Keyshawn Johnson and Rod Smith at WR, Frank Wycheck, Jason Hansen, and the Cardinals defense. Other Dewey starting lineups can match up ok against the Revenge. But we like the depth the Revenge brings to its roster with Biakabutuka and Gary Brown on the ground and Thigpen, Dawkins and Carruth at WR. We give a slight nod to the Revenge for 1st.
The other three teams each have some flaws in our eyes. The Norris is putting much faith in Ricky Williams, who can expect to see more defenses stacked up front than the Allies saw along the Maginot line in WW1. Warrick Dunn is fast becoming a 3rd down back in FFL terms and RB backups Lawrence Phillips and Napoleon Kaufman are questions in '99. We like Jimmy Smith but see Johnny Morton losing ground to Germaine Crowell at WR. Ismail makes a decent #3 WR. TE Greg Clark has already suffered a rib injury. There's no way Gary Anderson duplicates his 1998 season but he's still one of the top 3 kickers.
The Clams took much flack on draft day for their infighting and general draft disorganization. However, upon closer inspection, the starting lineup is OK. It's just that neither Wayne Chrebet nor Cam Cleeland are going to be in that lineup any time soon. Steve Young had a huge comeback season in '98 but there are questions about the 49er offensive line and running game. Either could hurt Young's value in '99. We like Marshall Faulk and Emmitt Smith although Faulk's value could dive if Ram QB Kurt Warner can't keep defenses honest with the pass. There's not much backfield depth. We don't see Bates scoring the vulture TDs he did in '98. Tim Brown starts at one WR spot while J.J. Stokes and Kevin Johnson provide depth at WR as does Michael Irvin in what will probably be a make or break season for him this year. Kyle Brady will be starting right away for the Clams. Jax paid good money for him so perhaps his value will rise this year.
Jake Plummer's sore thumb could prove to be a 1999 story for the King of Dogs. Time will tell. However, the Dogs also drafted Brad Johnson very early in the draft for backup. We like Rickey Watters to have a strong year in Mike Holgren's West Coast offense for Seattle. The Dogs slipped by selecting Skip Hicks ahead of Stephen Davis. Davis was given the starting job in Washington, at least for now. The other RBs are Abdul-Jabbar and Rob Konrad. WR is deep with Rice, Tony Martin (look for a strong season here), Frank Sanders (a strong sleeper for increased TDs), Tory Holt and Jake Reed. The Dogs success will come from air in '99.
After throwing darts at each of these teams, it's still too close to call but we'll go with the NFC Norris, the Bearded Clams and the King of Dogs in that order. Expect several division records of 3-3 this year in the Dewey.
The Cheatem division features the majority of league tradition this year. Grande To The Party (7 yrs), Palace of Swords (6 yrs), PMS (5 yrs) and the Greenback Iguanas (4 yrs) are all league vets and bring several league rivalries to the table. This division shapes up as perhaps the most entertaining in 1999 with any of the first three teams being capable of catching the division title. One of the others could net the wildcard berth.
Returning league champ the Palace of Swords return with several of 1998's key players back in the fold including Jermaine Lewis and Ben Coates. The QB is Testaverde with Levens and Alstott manning the RB spots. For depth, Leroy Hoard, Kimble Anders (who had a good camp) and rookie Kevin Faulk are on hand. Lewis and Terrance Mathis are the WRs. Bill Schroeder could be a strong sleeper in '99 as could Germaine Crowell. Curtis Conway is also available. Coates and Tony Gonzalez are the TEs, rookie Martin Gramatica brings his strong leg to the team and the Packers D is back again for the Swords. We like the Swords based on their overall depth.
The Commish must break with recent tradition that held that Grande To The Party's roster was never playoff caliber. Coach Will selected a roster that we like for the most part. His success, though, will be based on any contribution the team receives from the running backs. Randall Cunningham is the QB with Brian Griese in reserve, Cris Carter and Ed McCaffrey are the WRs. Derrick Mayes is #3 and could be a nice pick this year playing in Seattle for Coach Holgren again. Rookie David Boston provides some upside as does Eddie Kennison. Tyrone Davis is an up and coming NFL TE who runs like a WR. Del Greco and Richie Cunningham were taken in the draft back to back. A bit curious but K is covered. About the RBs: Curtis Enis and Charlie Garner are the starters. Enis is a big question after knee and attitude problems while Garner is still fighting to hold off Lawrence Phillips in SF while looking over his shoulder at the possible early return from injury of Garrison Hearst. Errict Rhett and Stephen Davis provide some possibilities off the bench. While the pick here is for the Party to finish 2nd, 1st is within reach if Coach Will catches some breaks in the backfield. Just as easily, the Party could find their way into 3rd because....
The Greenback Iguanas also drafted another solid roster. What the Party lacks in a ground game, the Iguanas might have if Eddie George should ever stopping trying to be the second coming of Barry Sanders---lots of yardage but few TDs. There's no denying the talent of Jamal Anderson. Terry Kirby could be a steal. He could also get hurt by Week 5 trying to be an everyday back for the first time in his career. At QB Bledsoe and Chris Chandler provide solid veteran leadership. Terry Glenn anchors the WRs. He needs to stay healthy all season or the Iguanas will be a bullet shy of a six shooter. Keenan McCardell is a nice receiver but he, too, has suffered in the past from Barry Syndrome. Backups Riedel Anthony, Dedrick Ward, Charles Johnson and Ike Hilliard all provide for intrigue; each in his own way. But none of them stand out at this point. Ward, however, could have some value for the first month and a half.
We feel bad for PMS. The 1999 version of this team looks to be entertaining but may be a player shy of the others in the division. Of course, time will tell if we're selling this team short. QB is deep with Brunell and Marino. Brunell comes with much hype but has yet to throw more than 20 TD passes in a season. The RB position is a bit muddled. Adrian Murrell is coming off two 1,000 yard seasons but rumor has it that he's being pushed in AZ by others. Duce Staley--a good back on a bad team. Priest Holmes is no guarantee nor is Ron Rivers. At WR, Randy Moss is the franchise. O.J. McDuffie's value has been on the rise this fall. Bert Emanuel is the #3 WR. Rickey Dudley is at TE. This season could be his last in Oakland if he doesn't step up his game.
The Howe division shapes up as more of a rematch than a division. Three of these four teams were together in the Cheatem division last year. But it's the new team that gets the nod here. The wildcard could also come from the Howe if the Cheatem teams merely take turns handing each other losses.
The Retreads do not appear nearly as dominent as they were in 1998, Coach Detwiler's confidence notwithstanding. QB is manned only with Doug Flutie who still gets very little respect here. The strength is at RB with Fred Taylor, Edgerrin James and Bam Morris. Greg Hill could also have some value. The WRs are Eric Moulds and Michael Westbrook with Darney Scott, Muhsin Muhammad and Tony Simmons in reserve. Westbrook needs to play up to his potential for once, however. Eric Green, when healthy, is a better than average TE. The Retreads get the first place vote here but by the narrowest of margins over.....
The Strange Highways have drafted a deep roster in 1999. It's deepest at WR with Terrell Owens, Herman Moore, Isaac Bruce, and Derrick Alexander all being potential big play men. Curtis Martin and Antwoine Smith form a solid starting backfield. The depth at QB could be needed since there are question marks aplenty here. Kordell Stewart, Jeff Blake and Trent Dilfer all factor into the mix. Freddie Jones is the starting TE and could be a sleeper--if TEs can be considered sleepers.
Departing from their norm, the Natural Mystics look to be a passing club in '99. The trend was set early when the Mystics passed up Dorsey Levens to select Antonio Freeman in the 1st round on draft day. The other starting WR is Marvin Harrison with rookie Troy Edwards, Leslie Shepherd and rookie Peerless Price backing them up. Peyton Manning is the QB with rookie Tim Couch in reserve. The running game will determine how well the Mystics play this season. Natrone Means and rookie Cecil Collins get the starting nods. Terry Allen is the #3 RB. The Mystics used their last pick to select Garrison Hearst. Hearst could provide insurance if he beats the doctors' timetable for his recovery from an ankle injury.
The Stanley Steamers gambled on several players on draft day, among them Jon Kitna, Jerome Bettis, Joey Galloway and Rob Moore. Moore and Galloway are hold outs. Moore will probably sign soon but Galloway could sit out longer. Kitna is unproven but has a great upside to him while Bettis has been injured almost since the first day of camp. When fully healthy, Bettis is a load. Charlie Batch is the backup at QB and could be a decent sleeper while Tommy Vardell and Amos Zereoue provide the depth at RB. If the season started today, the starting WRs would probably be Chris Calloway and Andre Rison. Jay Riemersma is an underrated TE. There are too many questions here for now, though, to expect a lot from the Steamers in '99.
What were the best and worst picks of the draft this year?
Stanley Steamers--Best: Terrell Davis goes without saying. We also like Vardell in Round 9 and Stephen Alexander in Round 15. Worst: we like Jay Riemersma but not with a 6th round pick. Jerome Bettis could be a bust in '99 due to injuries.
Retreads--Best: Taylor and James with the 1st two picks established the ground game. Worst: Michael Westbrook is a reach in Round 4 while Doug Flutie went in Round 7 although the Retreads could have had Brad Johnson earlier. Why Kurt Warner in Round 13? They may have been wise to select a stronger #2 QB earlier. Rob Johnson is available for someone still.
NFC Norris--Best: Aside from the obvious choice of Brett Favre in Round 1, we like the selection of Raghib Ismail in Round 9. Worst: Warrick Dunn went too soon (Round 4) as did Lawrence Phillips (5th), and Gary Anderson (6th). Kaufman in Round 7 could go either way, helping to make or break the Norris season.
Bearded Clams--Best: The top three picks were solid and we liked J.J. Stokes in Round 8, James Johnson in Round 12 and Kevin Johnson in Round 14. Worst: Wayne Chrebet in the 5th was too soon for a player out until Week 7. Irvin in Round 6 could go either way. As to Cam Cleeland, see Wayne Chrebet above.
PMS--Best: Moss is a no brainer; Marino in the 5th round could have a very nice season and Dudley in the 10th was a low price to pay for his talent. Worst: We like Brunell, per se, but do we like him in Round 2 ahead of Jake the Snake or Drew Bledsoe? I'm not sure. Oronde Gadsden might have been Dolphin overkill.
Greenback Iguanas--Best: Jamal Anderson down at #6 of Round 1 is almost a steal in itself. We also liked Chris Chandler in the 9th and James Stewart in the 13th. Worst: Riedel Anthony in the 7th ahead of such WRs as Yancy Thigpen, Frank Sanders, Jermaine Lewis and J.J. Stokes was an interesting selection. If a tree falls in Tampa and Anthony is there to catch it, does it make an FFL sound?
King of Dogs--Best: We like the selections of both Jerry Rice in the 2nd and Tony Martin in the 4th round. Worst: The Dogs missed badly in Round 5 with Skip Hicks then they used their 6th pick for their 2nd QB, Brad Johnson, while passing on Kaufman, Priest Holmes and Stephen Davis.
Grande To The Party--Best: Cunningham to Cris Carter in the first two rounds equals instant offense. Stephen Davis in the 7th and Derrick Mayes in the 8th could have productive FFL seasons in '99. Worst: We're tempted to say Enis in the 3rd. The answer, though, depends upon whether you like him better than these backs that were still on the board--Dillon, Antwoine Smith, Alstott, Means, Bam Morris and Duce Staley. Richie Cunningham in the 13th was redundant since Del Greco had just been taken one round earlier.
Natural Mystics--Best: Peerless Price in the 15th and Garrison Hearst in the 16th could boost the team. Worst: in general, the Mystics waited too long for a RB. Irving Fryar in the 11th proved to be a waste with the signing of Tyrone Wheatley on Monday.
Palace of Swords--Best: Jermaine Lewis in the 8th round and Bill Schroeder in the 10th are a pair of starting WRs in the NFL. There's nothing wrong with that. About Lewis, if Mitchell can't get him the ball, somebody will. Worst: We were a bit surprised with the selection of Terrance Mathis while Rod Smith, Ed McCaffrey, Tony Martin, Terry Glenn, Tim Brown, Isaac Bruce and Rob Moore were each still available.
Montezuma's Revenge--Best: Sean Dawkins in the 10th round could be a good sleeper in '99 with Joey Galloway's status still up in the air. Worst: there really isn't one obvious choice here. The closest might be Steve McNair in the 5th round given his history of underachievement and the fact that Brad Johnson and Chris Chandler were available. But that's quibbling.
Strange Highways--Best: Isaac Bruce was still available in the 6th round. He was the Highways' 3rd WR, making him a great choice at that point in the draft. Worst: Kordell Stewart in the 5th ahead of Brad Johnson. The Highways probably could have still taken Kordell as a backup three rounds later. The Oakland Raiders were waiving Rashan Salaam at almost the same time that the Highways were using their 8th round pick on him.
Swami Sez
After basking in the glow, or was that the summer sun, of an all-time best 50-38-2 mark in 1998, the Schwam is back for more in '99. Week 1, as always, finds us with a slate of divisional matchups designed to get the season started on the right foot. Wiping off his dusty crystal ball, the Swami will attempt to sort the whole mess out:
Montezuma's Revenge vs. King of Dogs
Not a lot of matchups stick up but the Dogs already appear to be a paw short in the backfield while wideouts Rice (JAX) and Tony Martin (DEN) have challenging opponents. The Dogs are 1-0 lifetime against the Revenge, winning last season's only matchup 28-17 in Week 8. However, based solely on the talent levels, the Schwam likes the Revenge better this year and sees them coming out on top in this one.
Bearded Clams vs. NFC Norris
While we like Favre vs. OAK better than Steve Young vs. JAX, we really like Faulk and Emmitt the first week. Unless Ricky Williams and at least one WR have good days, the Clams could win in their inaugural league contest.
Palace of Swords vs. Grande To The Party
The Swami likes the Swords WRs this week but not shake the feeling that the Vikes want to pay back the Falcons for last year's playoff loss. Look for Randall to have an outstanding game. If he finds Carter at all, the Party could get started right in '99 for Coach Will's team.
PMS vs. Greenback Iguanas
Too many matchups that are favorable to the Iguanas in Week 1. Bledsoe and Glenn will strike at some point against the Jets; Jamal Anderson (MIN) and Eddie George (CIN) should both produce this week; and Keenan McCardell gets to run around in the 49er secondary. Moss (ATL) cannot beat the Iguanas alone. Staley (ARZ) and Murrell (PHI) need to play big for PMS to have a shot.
Strange Highways vs. Retreads
The Swami isn't sure how this game can possibly match up against the pre-game trash talking taking place between the two head coaches. Look for a big game from Antwoine Smith who feasted on the Colts last year. Kordell (CLE) will show the world very early what to expect from him in '99. Herman Moore will be matching up against Shawn Springs. Isaac Bruce could be a wild card for the Highways. the Retreads have Flutie and Moulds vs. the Colts and Taylor running through a poor 49er front four. Edgerrin James' debut comes against the Bills. The Swami likes the Retreads.
Natural Mystics vs. Stanley Steamers
The Steamers have a slew of early season question marks. Galloway and Rob Moore won't be in the lineup. Bettis is 50/50. Kitna is the starting QB for the 1st time. Terrell Davis may have to have a big game vs. the Dolphins. The Mystics are in a no-win situation. Due to the problems of the Steamers, the Mystics will be expected to win. A loss could be the start of a long season. Manning and Harrison face the Bills while Freeman goes against the Raiders and Charles Woodson. RB will be a question right up until game time. The Swami goes with the Mystics and crosses his fingers.