TASK FORCE ON TERRORISM & UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE U.S. House of Representatives Washington, D.C. 20515 APPROACHING THE NEW CYCLE OF ARAB-ISRAELI FIGHTING December 10, 1996 Approaching the end of 1996, the Middle East may well be on the verge of a major regional war. Numerous sources in the region report that the supreme leaders -- both civilians and military -- in most Arab states, as well as in Iran and Pakistan are convinced that the present vulnerability of Israel is so great that there is a unique opportunity to, at the very least, begin the process leading to the destruction of Israel. These circumstances are considered to be a historic window of opportunity the Muslim World should not miss. Therefore, these Muslim leaders have finalized numerous strategies and tactical alliances heretofore non-existent in the region. Toward this end, several Arab states, as well as Iran and Pakistan, have been engaged in a frantic military build-up and active preparations in the last few months. Indeed, this crisis is escalating even as all key players continue to reassert their commitment to the US-inspired "Peace Process". However, the slide to war is the real and dominant dynamics in the Near East because it represents the reaction of the Muslim World to the challenges of modernization -- petrification exacerbated and aggravated by the post-Gulf Crisis regional dynamics, and particularly the intrusion policy of the Clinton Administration toward the Hub of Islam. In late November 1996, Na'il Mukhaybar, one of the most authoritative Arab commentators on Middle East affairs observed: "The question is no longer: Will the expected and planned war between Israel and Syria ever break out? It is rather: When will the war break out?" This is not a minority opinion. It is also shared by senior officials in the Arab Middle East. For example, in late October, a senior Jordanian diplomat warned that "Syria is preparing for a surprise military attack on Israel in the coming weeks." This assessment was based on high-level contacts between Damascus and Amman, especially between senior officers of both armies, in which the military situation in the region was discussed. In these meetings the Syrians asked for passive and indirect support from the Jordanian military -- for Jordan to hold maneuvers near Israeli border in order to compel IDF to divert forces and hold them there. Many other Arab and Iranian officials share the same view. There is a commonly shared firm belief among the senior experts serving Middle Eastern governments that the political-strategic dynamics in the Middle East have already reached a deadlock that makes a dramatic breakout inevitable. The strong commitment to such a dramatic breakout among most senior leaders is the key to understanding the present dangers. These leaders see no alternative to a dramatic breakout possible only through cataclysmic violence. The mere revival of the ongoing processes -- be it the peace process on the Arabs' terms or even the return to a region-wide state of war -- will no longer suffice to meet the strategic challenges from Islamic revivalism. Hence, the slide toward the resumption of violence -- ranging from spectacular terrorism to an all-out war -- between the Arabs and Israel. This is a very prudent and reasonable assessment given the overall regional dynamics over the last few months, particularly if examined in the context of the strategic regional dynamics of the last couple of years. Essentially, in their entirety, the tactical and military developments of recent months reinforce and confirm the earlier strategic posturing. Therefore, these military activities can, and should, be perceived as implementation of earlier grand designs. And this complementary relationship between the strategic and tactical dynamics is the key to the alarmist approach to interpreting the unfolding events. When analyzing these unfolding developments, it is highly significant to recall the emerging mega-trends in the region: The rise of militant Islam as the primary motivating factor of the Arab public has already reached unprecedented levels. The popular mistrust in existing nation-states, the hostility toward the US/West over intervention and presence in the Muslim World (in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, etc.), and the pressure on those in power to pursue "Islamic policies" continue to markedly increase. It will be difficult for rulers to resist the growing popular outcry and stay out of a major crisis with Israel, let alone support the US under such circumstances. The present leaders of Iran, Syria and Iraq are determined to transfer power to their sons-and-heirs. They are convinced that only the emergence of a close alliance leading to a perpetual crisis against the rest of the world will rally the potential contenders in their own respective coteries to accept their chosen sons as leaders. The mere existence of a functioning militant block will enable the other "sons-of" to assist and save a "son-of" in distress. Given its popular Islamist connotations -- liberating al-Quds - the current policy of brinkmanship and crisis is the best possible starting point for the establishment of this block. The succession struggle in Saudi Arabia is peaking. The Abdallah faction is determined to seize power through the eviction of the US from the region, the solution of Saudi Arabia's shortage of cash by accepting more lucrative contracts with East Asia at the expense of the West, and by establishing close relations with the radical states as a guarantee against Islamist subversion. The very close Abdallah-Assad relations constitute the key to Prince Abdallah's rise to power. These relations have already initiated the bombing in Dahran. Prince Abdallah has already promised Damascus to deliver a comprehensive oil embargo against the West in case of a major crisis with Israel. Thus, the mega-trends in the Middle East are pushing toward a crisis environment. A dramatic breakout from the deadlock is virtually inevitable. The latest developments in the military threat to Israel fit perfectly into this overall trend. THE LATEST STRATEGIC MILITARY MOVES AT THE THEATER-LEVEL Specific military moves at the national-strategic level suggesting active preparations for a possible war in the near future began in the spring of 1996. These activities range from highly irregular and highly significant military exercises to political and international agreements. In the Spring of 1996, Hafiz al-Assad and Saddam Hussein met secretly for a summit to ensure joint pursuit of regional objectives. The meeting took place in the area where the borders of Turkey, Iraq and Syria meet. This summit was aimed to get the endorsement and approval of both top leaders to the completion of strategic agreements reached in the course of recent high-level bilateral and tripartite high-level negotiations (Tehran is the third party). This summit created the conditions for the revival of the Eastern Front and set the specific and workable arrangements for the dispatch of Iranian expeditionary forces and weapons to the Syrian front. In late May 1996, Tehran demonstrated how seriously Iran takes the possibility of dispatching forces to the Israeli front. Iran conducted its largest military exercise ever -- Velayat. The essence of Velayat was a multiple corps deep offensive in the aftermath of a long range advance identical to the distance between Iran and Israel. The objective of Velayat was to confirm Iran's ability to send a strategically effective expeditionary force -- the Velayat Force -- to contribute to a regional war against high-quality armies. The primary intended objective of the exercise is Israel. The entire Iranian top leadership and high command were present at the exercise. Subsequent Iranian analysis pointed out deficiencies in the planning of the operations of a key special forces unit. These were quickly corrected and these improvements were demonstrated to the Tehran leadership in a follow-up exercise in late October. With Iran's ability to significantly contribute to the military effort against Israel proven, Damascus and Tehran conducted high-level discussions aimed at the formulation of a joint war strategy. In mid June, Iran and Syria signed a major agreement specifically for the codification of their military cooperation against Israel. This agreement also provides for joint exercises in northern and northeastern Iran of the command elements of Syrian units and the Iranian units that will arrive to support them on the Golan front. By mid August, Iraq was brought into this framework with the establishment of a tripartite "joint command" specifically aimed to expedite the preparations for, and conduct of, "a major war against Israel". A key component of this joint command has been the coordination of the activities of Iran, Iraq, and Syria in mobilizing their SSM forces for a possible missile barrage against Israel. In late September, the Palestinian factor was added to the joint preparations when the Palestinian Authorities (PA) entered into a major military agreement with Syria. Significantly, this agreement is between the PA, and not the PLO, and Syria, thus explicitly committing the Palestinian forces in the territories. The essence of the agreement is for the Palestinian "police" forces and other armed elements (terrorist organizations) to flare-up the Israeli interior in case of an escalation in the north. Syrian and PLO intelligence established a liaison section made up of senior Syrian and Palestinian intelligence officers with HQs in Beirut, Damascus and Gaza. In return, Syria will provide weapons and advanced training to PLO units in the refugees camps in southern Lebanon - - units disarmed as part of the Israeli-Lebanese agreements. Meanwhile, the PLO's preparations for an imminent war are evident. In Gaza, Arafat ordered the marked acceleration of the building of a personal command bunker, four stories deep. Moreover, the PLO is rapidly building all over Gaza a chain of command centers, ammunition and weapons-storage areas -- all of them underground and well fortified to even withstand Israeli bombing and shelling. The PA's security services are also accumulating large stockpiles of anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, including missiles, even though they are forbidden by the Oslo Accords. In mid September, the Egyptian Armed Forces conducted their largest military exercise since the late 1970s. The 10-days Badr-96 exercise simulated a strategic deep offensive against Israel and included a large scale call-up of reserves, a major amphibious landing on the Sinai coast, a nightly assault crossing of the Suez Canal, and major breakthroughs of defensive dispositions manned by high quality forces. In mid October, senior officers of the Egyptian Army conducted a tour of the Sinai, including areas near the Israeli border, in violation of the provisions of the peace agreement with Israel. It was a commanders' tour aimed to acquaint them with the peculiarities of a theater they might have to operate in. Meanwhile, Cairo encourages the resumption of calls for war at the political level. Brig.Gen. (Ret.) Mohammed Muawad Gad al-Moula, was permitted to establish a new political party committed "to revive the 'victorious spirit' of the October 1973 War" and whose leadership is made of retired senior officers. "We have no choice but to adopt a platform for rebuilding a strong Egypt and preparing a new generation capable of fighting any attackers," al-Moula told the semi-official al-Ahram. "We have to prepare for a fresh confrontation with Israel." Starting early October, there have been several cycles of bilateral and multilateral political-military discussions and coordination sessions between Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Jordan. According to high-level Iranian sources, the initial phase of these consultations led to the adoption of "pan-Arab cooperation" making it possible "to impose a military blockade on Israel from the north, east, and south." In late October, senior officers from Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Lebanon held a series of meetings to coordinate and agree on a number of specific military measures and strategies for the forthcoming confrontation with Israel. In early November, second-tier states were being brought into "the circle of confrontation" -- the group of states of committed to contributing to the Arab-Iranian war effort. Most significant was the Syrian-Pakistani military agreement signed in Islamabad by the Defense Ministers of Syria and Pakistan which arranged for the seconding of Pakistani military experts and senior officers, pilots and technicians, and key equipment to Syria. In late November, Damascus shared a comprehensive intelligence assessment with its Arab allies and a host of terrorist organizations. The primary objective was to warn of an impending major war between Israel and Syria with the active participation of, and support from, US forces on the side of Israel. Damascus has already concluded that "Israel is now preparing for a comprehensive war with Syria." The Syrian briefing points out to the call-up of reserves in Israel as indicative of an impending war. Special attention is paid to the military training in the Negev with US Marines. Syrian intelligence claims that "the training, objectives, and plans of these maneuvers focus on the occupied Syrian Golan and a number of positions west of Damascus." The Syrian sources are convinced that "one of these positions is a Syrian manufacturing plant for chemical weapons." Concerning the political-strategic situation in Damascus, the Syrian briefing is consistent in its emphasis on the immediacy of war, but seemingly self-contradictory on the sources of this war. On the one hand, the Syrian briefing states that "the Syrian leadership now believes that the military option to liberate the Golan from the Israeli Army is a legitimate Syrian option. It also believes that Syria has the right to resort to this option any time it deems appropriate." This assertion virtually confirms the Syrian intention to initiate hostilities in order to break the deadlock in the region. However, the section dealing with the military assessment of Syrian Intelligence emphasizes the possibility of an Israeli attack on Syria. Damascus now believes that "the Israeli Army will launch an imminent large-scale military operation against the Syrian Forces stationed adjacent to the Golan, in addition to the Syrian Forces that were relocated in Lebanon near the eastern Syrian border with Lebanon that extends to the Golan Heights." Presumably, this will be an Israeli preemptive strike given the extent of the Syrian preparations. The Syrian briefing leaves no doubt that even under these circumstances, Damascus will pursue its own assertive war aims, not just repel the Israeli aggression. The Syrian briefing states that "the Syrian President instructed the command of the Syrian Forces stationed near the Golan to immediately retaliate against any attack by the Israeli Army." Moreover, Assad ordered his forces to immediately launch a deep strategic strike and, toward this end, "the Syrian Army placed its SCUD missile systems at maximum alert should war break out with Israel." These SSMs, Damascus argues, "can hit any target inside Israel." The extent of the Iranian commitment to actively supporting the Syrian war effort is of crucial importance for the highest levels of leadership in Damascus. Indeed, in late November, Syrian sources stressed that Iranian President Hashemi-Rafsanjani had just reassured President Assad in a written message that "should war break out with Israel, Iran will support Syria with the necessary military hardware in order to strengthen the Syrian military position." Tehran takes this commitment very seriously, and, in the first week of December, dispatched Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati for urgent high-level consultations. Velayati arrived in Damascus carrying yet another extremely important message from Hashemi-Rafsanjani for Assad. He then conducted extensive discussions with Assad and other senior officials on regional issues. According to the Iranian media, "the latest regional and international developments as well as further promotion of Tehran-Damascus ties were discussed in the meetings." Velayati's discussions with Assad and his immediate aides went far beyond that, addressing Syrian-Iranian cooperation in the imminent and possibly inevitable war. Iranian sources highlighted the discussions with Assad in which Velayati "referred to foreign pressures and the Zionist plots and underlined the need to strengthen cooperation between Iran and Syria. The Syrian President stressed this cooperation will help establishment of peace and tranquility in the whole region." Both Damascus and Tehran agree that there is going to be a lot of violence -- ranging from terrorism to war -- on the road to regional peace. Iranian sources report that "the Syrian President stressed the need to support the Islamic resistance in south Lebanon to confront the Zionist aggressions and to defend the Lebanese territory." Velayati and Assad also expressed support and commitment to ensuring Iraq's territorial integrity -- a precondition for Saddam Hussein's support. Velayati also reiterated the Iranian long-standing support for "the aspiration of the Palestinian nation and the Islamic resistance in their struggle against the Zionist regime." He called for "a united action by the Islamic states to foil conspiracies of enemies." Velayati assured Assad that "the Tehran-Damascus close cooperation will lead to establishment of regional peace and tranquility." Velayati returned to Tehran carrying a most important message from Assad to Hashemi-Rafsanjani. * SPECIFIC TACTICAL PREPARATIONS Starting mid August, the Syrian Armed Forces have conducted a series of redeployments and maneuvers that have direct implications for their ability to launch an attack on Israel. The concurrent activities of both the Iraqi Armed Forces and PLO forces in Lebanon also contribute to the enhancement of the Arab military capabilities against Israel. The initial Syrian force movements in Lebanon and near the Golan, especially near Mt. Hermon, already changed the strategic posture in the region. The changes in the deployment of Syrian forces and units in Lebanon were accomplished in two stages. In the first phase, in late August, mechanized units deployed from Bhamdun and Dahr al-Baydar in central Lebanon to forward positions very close to the Israeli-held security zone. These Syrian forces deployed in such a way that any Israeli retaliation against terrorists in south Lebanon will inevitably kill Syrian soldiers, thus creating the "excuse" for further escalation. In addition, two of the three regiments of 14th Special Forces/Commando Division deployed from the Biqaa to forward positions on the Syrian Hermon overlooking the Israeli key early warning station on Mt.Hermon from the north and east. In the second phase, completed in mid September, units of the 10th Mechanized Division deployed from the Beirut area along the Beirut-Damascus Highway all the way to the Biqaa, replacing the units that had deployed to the south. The third regiment of the 14th Special Forces/Commando Division deployed from Beirut to forward positions in south-eastern Lebanon, overlooking the Israeli Mt.Hermon from the west. The deployment of the 14th Special Forces/Commando Division enables it to strike Israel's key early warning station on a moment notice, thus harming, if not paralyzing Israel's ability to detect a major surprise attack. Units of the Syrian internal police replaced the Syrian troops in Beirut. Moreover, Syrian Air Defense units -- both mobile SAM batteries and AAA -- deployed to forward positions on the Beirut-Damascus Highway very close to the Lebanese border, but still on Syrian territory. In late September, the Syrian forces were in a position to instigate a provocation of strategic dimensions. Syrian forces deployed behind a thin layer of Lebanese Army units around the SLA-held Jezzine salient. Additional Lebanese Army forces, totaling three brigades, deployed along the Israeli- and SLA-held security zone in front of the Syrian forces. The Syrian operational plan calls for an assault, by the Lebanese Army with "support" fro 1