This game looks worse the more I analyze it. The Tigers really did not have a very good game and they are very fortunate to have gotten out of the Ozarks with a win in this one. I have no doubt that Auburn has better talent and coaching than the Razorbacks, at this time, however in terms of spirit, the Hogs were tops. The team looked flat and tired after playing a tough schedule without an off week to recover. This compounded with the emotional loss to Florida last week, contributed to the Tiger's poor showing. After picking apart the game statistics here are the keys to the game. On offense, the team only had one impressive sustained drive - the first one. Craig had over half his game completions consecutively to start the game. They onl;y had 11 First Downs and 60 offensive plays - low numbers not seen since the Virginia game. Other low points included 11 penalties (5 for Off holding) and only completing 5 passes in the last 45 minutes! We kept having to settle for Field Goals because there was no knockout punch. We kept Arkansas in the game by not being able to sustain drives and by committing a couple of costly fumbles effectively removing 3 or 7 points and leading to 7 points against us. Our Third-down efficiency was not all that great - a mere 3 of 13. This led to 5 punts and 4 field goals. On the defensive side of the ball, we really contained the run as we have most of the year with the exception of Florida and LSU. We also kept their offense in check for the first 3 quarters. I am not sure whay the pass defense broke down so far in the 4th quarter allowing Clint Shoerner to have a career game and over 200 yards in the quarter. How we allowed 2 drives of 80+ yards is hard to figure. It comes down to spirit and Auburn's lack of a KO punch. The offense actually bailed the defense out in the end by running off almost 6 minutes of the clock not allowing the Hogs but 2 minutes to try to win the game. The game ball for Auburn should go to Jaret Holmes. He made all his kicks for points (14) and his punts and kickoffs gave Auburn a tremendous edge in the field position game. Auburn's average start was the Ark 47 and Arkansas' was their own 15! This alone may have won the game. On an aside...ESPN2's Todd Christiansen was really irritating me by calling our team the Auburn War Eagles.
Preview
This game has always intrigued me. Had things been a little bit different, I might have attended the Univ. of Arkansas. I grew up in the state and I remember SW conference football very well. My first football game I remember watching is the 1969 #1-#2 game against Texas. I once yelled soooiieeepig at a car dealership in Little Rock much to the chagrin to my parents. I am happy I went to Auburn, of course, WAR EAGLE! I have kept the Hogs as my #2 team so we now have this matchup every year. In 1993 - the only other meeting in Fayetteville - it snowed. It may be cold this year too. Auburn needs to run the same or similar game plan as the did against South Carolina and Ole Miss and they will be fine. I would like to see more Fred Beasley, Demontray Carter and the TE's receiving the pass across the middle. The Hogs' passing attack is fair but we should shut that down. They do have a poor rushing attack, with their leading rusher injured, so we can hopefully recover and not let them have any success with it. Auburn needs to get their heads on straight, shake off the Florida loss and win this one.
Prediction: Auburn 31 Arkansas 13
TV: ESPN2 "The Deuce" 6:00PM ET
Oct 18 (University of Florida)
The bottom line is that Auburn was defeated by a better football team. However the game was winable and the Tigers were in the game for 55 minutes. I was able to see the game from the East Upper Deck of Jordan-Hare, my first time to sit in the stands built in 1986 - not a bad view. Florida came to play and they did. You have to give Steve Spurrier for generating a game plan that Auburn could not handle. The QB situ was really a non-factor. Both performed well when they needed to, but notice that they only completed 14 passes and had 2 INTS. Fred Taylor was a HUGE factor in the game and Auburn's defense could not stop him, despite the fact they ran the same slant play to the left side of the line a jillion times - it seemed. Our pass defense was great and overall they did hold Florida to 17 points - the fewest in several years for Auburn. But, our inability to contain Taylor did us in. Another problem area was sacks. Auburn did not sack Florida's QBs even once, whereas Florida chased Daymeune Craig all day and sacked him 9 times! On several occasions our receivers seemed open but DC could not see them because of the fierce rush. He seemed to hold onto the ball too long at times and took the sack whe he could have thrown it away. But I'm not sure that cost us any points. If we had a running game it would have kept Florida out of the blitz all day. [This is the first time our lack of a running game cost us a Win.] We did run D Carter 3 times and he looked like the spark plug we needed. My wife and I were irritated that the AU coaches would not leave him in to see what he could do. Spurried used his horse FT and throttled us. We kept on sending 4 WRs out to pass and DC kept getting sacked..grrrrrr. We were also irritated that we used the TE pass twice in our only TD drive and never returned to it. The fumble in the 4th quarter when we were starting a drive to hopefully send us to OT took the wind out of our sails. Interestingly enough, the team hurt worst by this loss is Tennessee. We will probably still make it to Atlanta in December (thanks to Ole Miss!) however, to play these same Gators again.
Addendum - Thurs 10/16: Two situations concerning this weekend's game have caused me to revise my comments. One item is the suspension of Doug Johnson for breaking a "team rule." The second is the poor weather that is predicted for game day. First off, this team rule violation is allegedly breaking curfew and being seen in a pub and drinking a beer a couple of days before the LSU game. Apparently, it did not become public until Johnson's poor performance against LSU in Baton Rouge. His replacement is apparently the freshman from Canada, Palmer, who has been seem in mop-up duty only thus far. He took most of the snaps in practice Tuesday, this being before the announcement of Johnson's suspension. Secondly, the weather is expected to be cool, rainy and blustery on Saturday at Auburn. Temps will struggle to eclipse the 50's but may be above 60 for kickoff and the wind chill will probably be in the 40's with a strong NE wind and moderate to heavy rain. The result...a non traditional Auburn/Florida game. Spurrier may look like a genius by running Fred Taylor and the other backs down our throats and maybe even using a Tight End (does Florida have those?) to catch short passes. He may also use quick dumpoff passes atnd hope the defense slips on the wet field. On the other side of the ball, Auburn will rely heavily on D Craig to not make passing errors and to possibly run the ball more than usual. Demontray Carter may see more action also. Jordan-Hare has an excellent drainage system but the rain will certanily affect the passing game. All the rules are changed now. Look for an exciting game.
New Prediction: Auburn 27 Florida 24
(Original preview) Not many folks out there would have expected Auburn to be higher ranked than Florida going into this one (I'm an AP poll man as is any SEC fan). It is interesting to see a 4 team log-jam at spots 6 thru 9 with Auburn being above Florida, LSU and Tennessee! Auburn cannot relax, however. The Gators wil be a tenatious as ever and will be fighting for their SEC East lives as they enter J-H to tangle with the REALTigers this coming Saturday afternoon. An Auburn win would virtually put them in the SEC Championship game against Tennessee. A matchup I've been personally hoping for since 1992. But, let's not jump ahead of ourselves. There's a lot of ball to be played and there are several teams who still have a shot, given some upsets and bounces of the ball. LSU's win puts pressure on Auburn to not lose more than 1 SEC game. LSU has an easystreet (unless Alabama pulls a surprise) and Auburn must face Georgia and Alabama two recent nemeses, and win both to make the Championship game. Onto the game at hand...LSU has shown that Florida is beatable. This should bolster Auburn's confidence. They will not be over confident, however. The Tigers CAN win this one and I will predict it (by a sliver) but Florida is probably the more talented team. (Of course they were over LSU too.) Spurrier will make some corrections and will be ready to play on Saturday. Auburn's keys to victory include a reasonable running game with Beasley and Carter, a good showing by D Craig and NO interceptions. Our defense needs to put the heat on D Johnson and contain F Taylor.. I'd also like to see a few INTs and one back for a TD. Look for a great game and hopefully me and my wife in the stands. We're going to play the scalper game.
Prediction: Auburn 35 Florida 34
TV: CBS 3:30 ET
Preview
Oct 11 (Louisiana Tech Univ. - Homecoming)
This was my second game to miss due to a schedule conflict. I did get to hear some of the second quarter on the radio and Auburn was in control of the game. This was the second normally below-average team on our schedule who was supposed to be a tough challenge because they had a great QB. Once again we had no trouble. There were some good things that happened in this game. The Running game showed a pulse and D Carter is only part of the answer. Fred Beasley had another good showing in limited carries. I'd like to see those two in the line up the rest of the year and see what could happen. The passing game was once again great but two of the three INTs should have been avoided. The one at the goal line could have been avoided had we run Beasley up the gut. Takeo Spikes had an INT return for a TD. We need a few more of those whether they score or not. We're not really dominating on the turnover ratio as we did last year. In summary the Tigers played a good game and showed they did not look ahead to a matchup with Florida.
Preview
The way the press is lookign ahead to an undefeated matchup of Auburn and Florida scares me a little. Let's not assume that Louisiana Tech will roll over and die next week. This school gave us Terry Bradshaw in the 1960's and this season their star is QB Tim Rattay who is tearing up the stats each week. This team is 5-1 and has beaten California and almost defeated Arkansas. It is a home game and infact homecoming. Let's not forget our struggle with NE Louisiana last year. Terry's Tigers won't forget. Look for theur defense to pressure Rattay all day and for Craig to pass for 300 yards again.
Prediction: Auburn 38 La Tech 10
TV: None announced. 2:00 ET
Oct 04 (Univ. of South Carolina)
My wife and I had a great visit to the state of South Carolina, Auburn winning was one reason, but the people were all very friendly and cordial. It was a good experience all around. Tickets were plentiful and we paid a little over list price for our tickets. We could have probably found cheaper tickets, btu not in the shade of the upper West stands. Most fans broiled in the 85 degree sun but we were comfortable most of the game in the shadow of the stadium. Williams-Brice is a First Class stadium in every way. They even have TVs in the concession stand to help those in line keep up with the game. The seats have about 2 inches more knee room that the seats in Jordan-Hare and they even had bench-style backs! Auburn looked flat in the first half, but USC looked flat the whole game and in fact got worse as the game went on. Their fans were definately boo-birds and they seemed to be upset at the conservative play calling of their offensive coordinator. The key to Auburn was as I predicted putting pressure on A Wright and D Craig's passing. Both succeeded in the end. The defense continues to gel and Craig may have to pass for 400 yards to get niticed any more. His 300+ yard games are becoming routine. The running game was about the same (mediocre) and I'd like to see more of F Beasley. The safety in the 4th quarter was very quirky and something I had never seen before. I assumed the call of touchback was correct (as did 70,000 boo-ing USC fans!), but the safety was the right call. A few odds and ends...Auburn had several dropped passes and interceptions in the first half that could have made the game an even greater victory. USC's 2 field goals were on drives where they made only 1 first down each...Auburn was 2 of 11 in 3rd down situations - very poor. Auburn needs to play much sharper for 4 quarters to compete with Florida, but they wil take this win a go with it.
Preview
This will be my first game to see in person (assuming I find a scalper on game day). And only my second trip into the State of South Carolina for any reason. This game is on what I call SEC rotation weekend. Every SEC West team is on the road at their rotating schedule SEC East team's stadium. Next year the Tigers pick up Tennessee! Auburn is soaring and South Carolina is reeling. As long as Auburn stays focused and plays well, they should be able to tame the Gamecocks. USC has a good QB in A Wright and I believe the defense who stopped D Culpepper will do the same to Wright. Look for a lot of defensive pressure and more of the D Craig passing attack.
Prediction: Auburn 31 USC 16
TV: Jefferson-Pilot 12:30 ET