1. Ducks

A. Harvest Strategy Considerations

Adaptive harvest management (AHM) was introduced in 1995 to help managers better understand the impacts of regulations on waterfowl harvest and population levels. In addition, AHM is intended to provide: (1) a more objective, better informed, and less contentious decision-making process; (2) an explicitly defined role for monitoring programs in setting regulations; and (3) a formal and coherent framework for addressing controversial harvest-management issues.

Since 1995, the AHM process has focused primarily on midcontinent mallards. However, there continues to be considerable interest in accounting for mallards breeding eastward and westward of the midcontinent region. The ultimate goal is to develop Flyway-specific harvest strategies, which represent an average of optimal strategies for each mallard breeding stock, weighted by the relative contribution of each stock to the respective Flyways. The Service and States also have expressed interest in extending the AHM protocol to other important species such as pintails, teal, and black ducks.

Harvest strategies that account for important biological differences in duck stocks are expected to yield the highest management benefits, but also are characterized by relatively high monitoring and assessment costs. Thus, the Service believes objective assessments of the tradeoff in costs and benefits are necessary for deciding when the AHM protocol should be extended to various duck stocks. Preliminary investigations using the tools of decision-theory suggest that management benefits may be less sensitive to biological differences in duck stocks than commonly believed. If so, cost considerations will motivate managers to implement AHM strategies based explicitly on just a few stocks (e.g., western, midcontinent, and eastern mallards).

Determining the degree to which AHM strategies should account for important sources of biological variation is an incredibly difficult challenge, and one that will require considerable effort and focus by the AHM Working Group. The AHM Working Group is comprised of representatives from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the four Flyway Councils, and the Canadian Wildlife Service and was established in 1992 to assist with implementation of AHM. The working group continues to meet at least once a year to pursue AHM conceptual development and to consider technical and communication issues for the current regulatory cycle.

The Service believes requests for further changes to the set of regulatory alternatives established in 1997 likely would delay extension of AHM to stocks other than midcontinent mallards. Therefore, future proposals to change the regulatory alternatives will be viewed critically and reasons for change should be compelling. This means that proposals should enjoy broad-based support and should be accompanied by strong rationale, including a recognition of impacts on both harvest and learning rates, as well as on other AHM priorities.

B. Framework dates

During 1997 the Service attempted to address concerns about the set of regulatory alternatives that had been used for AHM since the 1995 hunting season. Based on extensive input from the Flyway Councils and others, the regulatory alternatives considered for the 1997 season were modified to include: (1) a ``very restrictive'' alternative; (2) additional days and a higher total-duck daily bag limit in the ``moderate'' and ``liberal'' alternatives; and (3) an increase in the bag limit of hen mallards in the ``moderate'' and ``liberal'' alternatives. No changes were made to the traditional framework dates of roughly October 1 to January 20.

The Service received extensive public comment both supporting and opposing extensions of traditional framework dates. By August of last year, the issue had became highly divisive and politically-charged. Ultimately, the Service was directed by the U.S. Congress to review existing information on framework extensions and to consult further with the States and International Association of Fish & Wildlife Agencies.

Following the guidance provided by Congress, the Service has prepared a summary of the effects of framework extensions in Mississippi and Iowa, and of predicted impacts of large-scale framework extensions on the regulation of mallard harvests. Available data generally reflect increases in the harvest of most duck species due to framework extensions in Mississippi and Iowa, although the magnitude of the increases could not be estimated precisely. Based on these results, large-scale extensions of framework dates could decrease the frequency of years with liberal regulations from 70 to 15 percent, while increasing the frequency of years with restrictive regulations from 11 to 42 percent. The Service's report is now available to the Flyway Councils, States, and public for further consultation.

C. Special Seasons/Species Management

i. Canvasbacks

The Service continues to support the canvasback harvest strategy adopted in 1994. Last year, the Service noted its intent to review recent data and assess how well observed harvests and population abundance were predicted by the strategy (62 FR 50662). The assessment is nearing completion, and will be available for review by the Flyway Technical Sections at their meetings during February and March, 1998.

ii. September Teal/Wood Duck Seasons

These experimental seasons have been held in Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee since 1981. The Service has consistently stated that continuation of September wood duck seasons is contingent on the development of regional wood duck population monitoring programs, as well as evaluation and decision criteria for these seasons. The final report of the [[Page 13752]]``Wood Duck Population Monitoring Initiative'' (Initiative) completed in July 1997 indicated that monitoring programs at geographic scales below the flyway level are not meeting requisite sample sizes. Therefore, harvest management strategies aimed at scales below the flyway level likely is not feasible.

An evaluation of September wood duck seasons was recently completed and a draft report will be made available to the Atlantic and Mississippi Flyway Councils for their review during February 1998. Results from the evaluation indicate that estimates of population parameters for individual states are usually imprecise, which often precludes drawing meaningful conclusions. In light of these results, as well as those from the Initiative, the Service may propose suspension of September wood duck seasons this year.

2. Sea Ducks

A. Special Sea Duck Seasons in the Atlantic Flyway

At the request of the Atlantic Flyway Council, the Service has investigated the effects of bag limit restrictions on scoters that were initiated in the Atlantic Flyway in 1993. In addition, the Service has reviewed other features of this special season and the biological status of sea ducks in eastern North America. A draft report, titled ``Status of Sea Ducks in Eastern North America and a Review of the Special Sea Duck Season in the Atlantic Flyway'' will be available from the Office of Migratory Bird Management by late-February, 1998. This report recommends consideration of several changes to sea duck hunting seasons in the Atlantic Flyway, including changes to sea duck hunting zones, bag limits, and season lengths. The Service seeks from the Atlantic Flyway Council and others comments on the draft report, consideration of changes to sea duck seasons in 1998 in the Atlantic Flyway, and progress toward development of management goals for sea ducks.