Idea creating contest '97
Make your ideas become part of Kellogg's future business
Detailed competition study
This and the next steps are belonging to the justification why the product has to be developed.
To learn more about my competitors, the colleagues from the marketing are collecting as many information as possible by: collecting competitive literature and advertising, asking salespeople about competitor trend in new products, asking suppliers about competitor's capacities and equipment (do they have the resources for a quick launch of me-too-products).
The competitor study has given the following information:
Despite of all the many products in the market, there are mainly four big competitors: Kellogg, Cereal Partners, Weetabix and Quaker. The following table shows their share of the total market:
1991 |
1991 |
1993 |
1993 |
1995 (est) |
1995 (est) |
% Change |
|
|
000 t |
% |
000 t |
% |
000 t |
% |
1991-95 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kellogg |
172.0 |
46.6 |
178.9 |
43.3 |
188.2 |
42.5 |
+9.4 |
Weetabix |
57.2 |
14.8 |
58.1 |
14.1 |
61.4 |
13.9 |
+7.3 |
Cereal Partners |
23.1 |
6.0 |
30.7 |
7.4 |
36.5 |
8.2 |
+58.0 |
Quaker |
24.9 |
6.4 |
25.1 |
6.1 |
28.2 |
6.4 |
+13.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other brands |
23.5 |
6.1 |
28.3 |
6.9 |
31.3 |
7.0 |
+33.2 |
Own label |
85.2 |
22.1 |
92.0 |
22.3 |
97.4 |
22.0 |
+14.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
386.0 |
100.0 |
413.0 |
100.0 |
443.0 |
100.0 |
+14.8 |
Picture -1 Source : MINTEL
Kellogg is market leader with a declining share of 42,5% in 1995 and an average growth of 9,4 %.
Weetabix is second with a share of 13,9% and an average growth of 7,3%.
While the other three companies are owned by multinationals, Weetabix is an independent British Company. It received a turnover of £203 million in 1993. The main business of Weetabix is the breakfast cereal market. The second well-known label is called 'Alpen'- a muesli mix. With this label they could be able to come up with a similar hearty vegetable mix. The company is successful in the hot cereal market, too. This segment could be (maybe) an additional market for our vegetable muesli mix !
Because of the company is not driven by multinationals, there are not so much resources of capital to boost production. In addition, the slightly conservative management is not willed to come up with such new products, when they are not proved in the market.
A tremendous average growth have the Cereal Partners brands with 58% and a share of 8,2%.
In the 1990s Nestlé and General Mills made a joint-venture. The company called 'Cereal Partners' was formed. The company General Mills has a huge variety of breakfast cereal brands (and is second in the US cereal market), such as Nestlé, too. Together they want to win shares in the competition against the market leader Kellogg's. The new company acts under the well known name from Nestlé. The customer knows Nestlé as a producer of high quality brands, too which is very important in this premium price market.
Their products are traditional cereal products like Shredded Wheat (100 years old), Shreddies, Frosted Shreddies as well as modern breakfast cereal products imported from the US like: Crisp Rice, Lucky Charms, Golden Grahams. The newer brands are Multi cheerios.
Especially Nestlé is a strong competitor with a similar image of quality. They have the resources to come up with a me-too product. Moreover they are willing to risk something for new slices of market share. Cereal partners have a good advertising and distribution system (like Kellogg!). Kellogg has a more bigger market share and to be the first (with hearty cereals) means for Nestlé: gain shares from Kellogg.
The fourth, Quaker has a big average increase, too and a share of 6,4%.
Quaker is an US owned company and in business for more than a century. It's businesses are pet foods, snacks, pasta and breakfast cereals. Quaker is the leader in the hot-cereal market with a share of more than 50%.
Some of its brands are: Quaker Oats, Sugar Puffs, Puffed wheat, Harvest Crunch, Oat Krunchies. 'Feast of Flakes' and 'Wholegrain Feast' are the newer products of Quaker Oats as a response to the growing Health care efforts of the consumers.
They could be able to come up with a me-too product, too.
The own label brands have a relatively big share. That's because of their low price compared to the market leaders.
The other brands have a relatively high growth, maybe because of innovative products. With them they want to enter the market. Like e.g. Jordans, they mainly work in the health-food segment or in own label production.
Even one of this companies would try to launch a me-too product. They have the possibility to set their price under our price.
Þ We must ensure that the consumer wants to buy our products in spite of the price Þ Marketing, brand's image.
All the companies mentioned above competing for a total sales potential in this share of 443,000 tonnes. The market has an estimated growth (for 1995 !) of 14,8%.
In the last years, the market for Breakfast cereals has been growing.
Due to a strong development of innovations and much promotion, the UK market was worth £1 billion.in 1995 (Mintel). The huge variety of the whole market brings me to the assumption, that it is a mass-market. The Companies apply target marketing in its segments.
They target one segment (e.g. health-muesli-segment) and taylor products for the needs and wants for this special target-group.
The whole market can be roughly segmented into :
· cold ready to eat cereals (e.g. cornflakes, muesli)
· hot oat products (e.g. porridge)
There was (and still is) a shift in eating habits. People take care for their health more than in the past. Thus, the habits in eating cereals have changed, too. This development has encouraged the companies in this market to come up with products like Bran Flakes ( mixed with fruits ).or mueslis.
Demographic changes in society have a further effect on the market of the breakfast cereals. On the one hand there are more woman working in jobs outside the house. As a result of this, they don't have time to cook (especially early in the morning).
So they opt for fast to prepare products, which (in spite of the fast preparing) providing the necessary vitamins to have a healthy meal.
Moreover Breakfast cereals become more and more a snack during the day. Even in one-person households they are used in this way, because singles don't want to cook for themselves. The amount of single-person households is rising since the last few years.
Number of households |
Number of households |
1-person households |
Single person households |
Average household size |
|
|
m |
Index |
m |
Index |
persons |
1990 |
22.06 |
100 |
5.63 |
100 |
2.61 |
1991 |
22.43 |
102 |
5.83 |
104 |
2.58 |
1992 |
23.09 |
105 |
6.23 |
110 |
2.51 |
1993 |
23.43 |
107 |
6.33 |
112 |
2.48 |
1994 |
23.53 |
108 |
6.58 |
117 |
2.45 |
1995 |
24.20 |
110 |
6.83 |
121 |
2.42 |
Picture -1Number and change of special households source: MINTEL
These factors keep the cereal market growing ,and are potentials for hearty vegetables.
The total consumption of cereals is increasing since 1993. As shown in the following table:
000 |
Index |
£m |
Index |
£m at '90 |
Index |
|
|
tonnes |
|
|
|
prices |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1990 |
373 |
100 |
749 |
100 |
749 |
100 |
1991 |
386 |
103 |
822 |
110 |
781 |
104 |
1992 |
402 |
108 |
894 |
119 |
832 |
111 |
1993 |
413 |
111 |
942 |
126 |
862 |
115 |
1994 |
430 |
115 |
998 |
133 |
904 |
121 |
Picture -2 UK market for cereals in total source: MINTEL
Total sales rose from 1990 to 1995 sales of cereals rose by 19 %. When effects of inflation are taken out there is a raise in current value terms of 24 %. Now it is important which segments of the whole cereal market are growing. So the next table shows the cereal market divided into the main segments
1993 |
1993 |
1995 (est) |
1995 (est) |
% Change |
|
000 tonnes |
% |
000 tonnes |
% |
1993-95 |
|
Muesli |
51.10 |
13 |
54.90 |
13 |
+6.6 |
Other high fibre breakfast cereals |
160.59 |
41 |
164.70 |
40 |
+2.6 |
Sweetened breakfast cerelas |
69.69 |
18 |
82.35 |
20 |
+18.2 |
Other breakfast cereals (incl. Hot cereals,excl. Other oat products) |
109.08 |
28 |
106.75 |
26 |
-2.1 |
Total breakfast cereals |
390.87 |
100 |
408.70 |
100 |
+4.6 |
Picture -3 Size of the cereal market by type source: MINTEL
As you can see from the table, the Muesli mixes and other high fibre breakfast cereals cover a huge market potential. Both segments are competition areas for our new product.
Picture -4
Market share from the new product within the market.
Due to the large variety of cereals in the market, we estimate a market share of 2% (within the Muesli and other high fibre segment) in the first year. We expect this share to grow to 3% the second year, to 4 % in the third year.
That means:When the figures of the tables are continued there is the following developement:
·
Market segment volume Muesli+other high fibre cereals (in 1995): » 220,000 tonnesÞ
annual growth 8% (1995,1996,1997)Þ volume in 1998 (=220,000*1,083) : » 280,000 tonnesÞ
2% share of 280,000 t =5,600 tonnes Þ 1st year production volume: » 6,000 tonnes !