end for Clinton or the Democrats, but the results of the
elections which took place on November 4, 1997 have to be a
cause of some concern for Democrats and for some joy by the
GOP.
Christie Todd Whitman may not have been the darling of the
more conservative majority of the party, and that may have
helped make the race much closer than it might have been,
but she was able to squeak out a close re-election.
Indeed, some more conservative Republicans have held
that where Republicans do not present a clear alternative
to the more liberal agenda of the Democrats, they will
experience difficulties at the polls. That may be one lesson
of Whitman's narrow win.
Governor Whitman has presented a posture of representing
a conservative economic perspective, based on her having
won substantive tax cuts early in her first term, but even
that is held in some suspicion by both more conservative
Republicans and by her Democrat opponents in the campaign.
On social issues, such as affirmative action and abortion --
Governor Whitman even opposed the ban on partial birth
abortions -- the matter was even more in dispute.
That may have cost the campaign some support among more
conservative voters, as it clearly did with the New Jersey
Conservative Party. There was also a Libertarian candidate
who took over 100000 votes in the election, perhaps cutting
into Whitman's potential margin. However, it was also a race
in which heavy hitters, including Clinton, put much effort,
and into which the Democrats poured heavy campaign funds.
Mayor Rudolph Guiliani won a second term in New York City,
and although that was hardly a surprise and he has also been
viewed as less than a conservative on many issues, it was
the first time since 1941 that a GOP Mayor won re-election
as Mayor of the Big Apple. Here, however, while the big guns
turned out for Democrat Messenger, campaign funds were at
a bit of a premium for the Democrat side. Still, Guilani won
40 % of the Hispanic vote and the Democrat vote in the city
--almost a prerequisite for anyone to win in this over-
whelmingly Democrat electorate. (Messenger's concession
whining about sexism having been the reason she lost
apparently didn't have relevance across the Hudson in New
Jersey in Whitman's thin triumph).
The Republican candidate to fill the vacancy in Congress from
the 13th District centered around Staten Island -- a district
which has tended to vote Republican in recent years --
won over a Democrat campaign that enjoyed heavy support
with appearances by Clinton and others, but was not swimming
in campaign funds. Even though Democrats had had some hopes
of winning and thus cutting into the narrow Republican edge
in the House, they may put a spin on the results as it
having been an attempt to cut their loses by making it as
close as they could.
All three of these races were also in the northeast, an area
in which the Democrats made some of their biggest gains in
the 1996 elections. And all of this may portend some trouble
for Democrats as they prepare for the 1998 wars. With these
set-backs, it may prove more difficult for them to pull
Jacobsen's 'good candidates' for next year, and it certainly
will make fund-raising a little tougher. Though such as these
decisions will be made over the next few months to a great
extent, twelve months is a long time and much could change.
At the same time, it is going to make it a little easier
for Republicans to recruit better candidates and raise funds.
Perhaps a lot easier!
The question of campaign money in these contests offers some
valuable insights into what went on. Democrats in most of the
races -- except New Jersey -- found it difficult to match
the Republicans in raising money, but a good part of the
reason that Democrats could not match the GOP is attributable
to Bill Clinton. Having poured the financial resources of the
party into his own campaign effort through 1995 and 1996 --
in sometimes manuveurs of questionable legality -- the party
has found itself without money to put into the races.In fact,
because it had to borrow to return so many illegal campaign
contributions (often made under the guiding hand of the
White House), they are now $ 15 million in debt. The spin on
these Democrat failures from the White House and the media
(what a coicidence!) was that the Democrats just could not
match the GOP's money raising abilities! It will be used
as fodder to try to fuel the Democrat drive for campaign
funding 'reform'!
Whitman's narrow victory, though about the same as her
margin four years ago, will probably stall talk of her as
a serious contender for the GOP Presidential or Vice
Presidential nominations, at least for a time.
A winner from these returns may be the Presidential
aspirations of Steve Forbes, who, while clearly not quite
a fellow-traveler with Whitman, may get a boost since they
both come from New Jersey.
Republican fortunes also sagged a bit in Virginia in 1996,
but the results of this election there will be a shot in the
arm for them. They not only won the Governor's race rather
easily, but they also won the Lt Governor and Attorney
General races in a clean sweep of state-wide offices.
The Lt Governor's victory will give the GOP the edge in the
upper house of the Virginia assembly, which had been evenly
divided between the parties. This represents the most power
Republicans have had in Virginia since Reconstruction.
Clinton helped the Republicans pull off the big win. Having
gone into the state in the week before election day and
complained about Gilmer calling for ending the car tax,
he said that its opponents were selfish and short-sighted,
and would regret their quest for 'instant gratification'
when reduced revenues forced government services to be cut.
Actually, this issue of taxes and overtaxation was perhaps
the one common theme that ran through these campaigns.
It is also one which will apparently play some role in next
year's races, and even though even the Democrat candidate
for Governor in New Jersey tried to make it his issue,
it is probably going to work to the advantage of Republicans.
Democrats may rationalize the results of these contests,
but doing so may well be to their disadvantage. However it
might have been portrayed had they done better in these races
the successes of Republicans in New York, New Jersey, and
Virginia may portend a substantive advantage for the GOP
as the nation moves closer to 1998.
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