In all the time that war has existed, it has been an important topic for analysis. The analysis of war is
divided into several different categories: philosophical, political, economic, technological, legal,
sociological, and psychological. Most actual theories are a mixture because war is an extremely
complex social phenomenon that can't be explained by any single factor, or through any single
approach.
Theories of war have changed in the course of the past three centuries. After the end of the
religious wars of the middle of the 17th century, wars were fought for the interests of a political
leader of some kind, and they were limited both in objectives and in scope. The art of maneuver
was used, and strength and strategy became very important.
Theories changed again at the beginning of the French Revolution. The size of forces changed from
small professional armies, to large armies. The objectives of war broadened to include ideas of
revolution; ideas that appealed to the masses. Post-Napoleonic Europe mainstreamed the theory of
war as a rational, limited instrument of national policy.
World War I led to a renewal of other theories. It resulted in the mobilization of entire populations,
and economies for a prolonged period of time. These theories no longer regarded war as a rational
instrument of state policy. Now, like the religious wars of the 17th century, war became part of a
"grand design", for example, like the rising of communism, or the Nazi doctrine of a master race.
World War II and the evolution of weapons of mass destruction made even greater changes in the
theory of war. On one hand, war has become a complete social phenomenon. On the other hand,
the use of war evolved as an instrument of policy decided totally by the nuclear super-powers, the
United States and the Soviet Union. Now to think about war you'd have to raise 4 questions relating
to very different types of conflict. The modern definition of war as "armed conflict between political
units," is a very limited one. Such a definition includes civil wars, but at the same time it excludes
disturbances like riots, banditry, or piracy. Finally, war is generally only armed conflicts on a fairly
large scale. It usually excludes conflicts in which fewer than 50,000 combatants are involved.
The establishment of the first cities was followed by the establishment of the first professional
armies, which gradually grew in size. The techniques of war became more sophisticated and wars
became more geographically wide-spread. They also became more concentrated in time, giving rise
to a clear distinction between war and peace. Wars were fought mainly for territory; to secure or
ward off domination.
The technological advances of the 15th and 16th centuries, especially the development of explosives
and later improvements in metal working, greatly improved weapons techniques. The incidence of
wars seemed to be cyclical, reaching a peak every 50 years. The average duration fluctuated. In
the 20th century, wars grew to an average length of four years.
Armies steadily increased in size. The mercenary forces of the 16th century were seldom greater
than 20,000-30,000. In the 17th century, nationalized armies doubled and during the next century
they tripled in size. Napoleon, who led armies of 20,000 into battle, at one time mobilized about
1,000,000 people (about 5% of the total population of France). In the relatively peaceful remainder
of the 19th century, western European armies grew in step with the population. Military
expenditures came to an average of 1/3 of the general state expenditures.
In terms of loss of life and material damage, war losses seem to have reached a peak during the
religious wars. They then declined gradually in subsequent centuries, but climbed to unprecedented
heights in the 20th century.
The upward trend in the human and economic costs of warfare has continued since 1945. In 1980,
it was estimated, the world spent $541,000,000,000 or 4.6 percent of it's gross national product, on
defense, compared to a similar 4.6 percent on education, and a 3.2 percent on health. In the
relatively peaceful year of 1980, defense establishments involved a total approaching 24,700,000
men under arms. A nuclear war would, of course, be of a very much greater magnitude than any
previous war. The ground blasts of a relatively small (one megaton) bomb hitting a city of 1,000,000
would leave almost 1/2 of the population injured and only 1/4 of the accommodations usable. It
should be noted, however, that recovery and reconstruction after the two world wars was
unexpectedly rapid, and it has been convincingly argued that recovery after a sizable nuclear
exchange would also be unexpectedly rapid.
War is a very hard topic to address because it impacts so many nations at one time. Is there a
solution? Who knows? There may not be. It may be that war is to peace just as black is to white,
dark is to light, and night is to day. One cannot exist without the other.
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