The Politics1 Report - http://www.politics1.com/ McCAIN WINS BIG, GORE SQUEEKS PAST BRADLEY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE Today being Groundhog Day, it seems rather appropriate then that George W. Bush awoke today to see John McCain's shadow -- indicating that there will be at least six more weeks of GOP primary contests. In the final polls leading up to yesterday's vote, McCain held a lead averaging around 4-5 points over Bush. The pollsters proved way off the mark as voters in the Granite State gave McCain an 18-point landslide victory margin over Bush. The final results: McCain-49%, Bush-30%, Steve Forbes-13%, Alan Keyes-6% and Gary Bauer captured less than 1%. McCain's numbers were bolstered by a surge of support from Independent voters who responded to his campaign finance reform message and "American hero" image. The big losers in the contest were clearly US Senator Judd Gregg, former Governors John Sununu and Steve Merrill and the other GOP heavyweights in the state who backed Bush but couldn't deliver. Bush was hoping for a New Hampshire win to quickly derail McCain's candidacy. Instead, the two men will now battle it out in the South Carolina primary on February 19. Bush currently leads McCain by about 15 point in the polls there -- but McCain has a good organization and has spent much time campaigning there. McCain needs a South Carolina victory to give him momentum heading into the crucial contests in California, New York and the other "Super Tuesday" states. The results also showed Bush that he needed more than just lots of money and an aura of invincibility to win the nomination -- now he needs a compelling message. Forbes has the financial resources to continue his campaign for now, but his distant third place finish seems to eliminate him as a serious factor in the contest. Forbes will now campaign in Delaware for the February 8 primary -- although the others are largely skipping that minor contest. Alan Keyes failed in his twin goals of breaking into the double-digits and finishing ahead of Forbes. Keyes -- who last night argued that he is the GOP candidate best able to fight what he sees as the homosexual threat to America -- plans to continue his campaign. Bauer -- who literally fell off the stage at a pancake flipping contest on Monday -- yesterday fell off the Presidential campaign stage. His dismal 1,700 vote showing should force Bauer to abandon the race sometime within the next week. Look for Bauer to ultimately endorse Forbes, despite the earlier bad blood between the two camps. On the Democratic side, Al Gore won a narrow victory over rival Bill Bradley by a 50% to 46% vote. Bradley has led Gore in New Hampshire polls until a month ago, when Gore retook the lead. After his poor showing in Iowa last week, Bradley needed a win here to keep his candidacy viable. While Gore did not score a knockout blow, he did serious damage to Bradley's strategy. While Bradley has substantially more money remaining in the bank than does Gore -- and vows to continue in the race -- he faces an uphill contest. Gore leads by wide margins in nearly every upcoming primary except those in New Jersey and New York. Trying to spin this as a victory, Bradley's campaign manager told the Washington Post that the closeness of the results should end the media's "death watch" speculation about the Bradley campaign. Bradley last night challenged Gore to a series of weekly debates over the next month. Good weather yesterday pushed the turnout to a record high of over 393,000 voters (a 55% turnout). In an amusing aside, some voters in each primary opted to write-in candidates from the opposing party. In the Democratic primary, McCain captured 3,320 write-in votes, Forbes earned 998 and Bush captured 827. On the GOP side, 1,155 Republicans cast write-in ballots for Gore and 1,025 wrote-in Bradley. Former candidate Elizabeth Dole also received 231 write-in votes in the GOP primary.
